Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 so the euro 're-compresses' the flow in that time period now ... of course anything more favorable looking between the 23rd and the end of the month was predicated on that relaxation - imho. without it, it's more nuanced and far less predictive. this is our problem ... non-hydrostatic heights exceeding 594 dm in latter January near by E of the Bahamas, pressing up against a mid Canadian shield PV that's below 500. nothing is going to squeeze thru there and conserve enough of it's own mechanics capable of doing jack shit 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Some members of the EPS towards day 9 or so have something lurking off the coast. Something to watch in case the right s/w came pivoting south despite the Daytona 500(mb) running up the east coast. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 thank god then ... winter's half over today by met calendar. 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:31 PM, Typhoon Tip said: so the euro 're-compresses' the flow in that time period now ... of course anything more favorable looking between the 23rd and the end of the month was predicated on that relaxation - imho. without it, it's more nuanced and far less predictive. this is our problem ... non-hydrostatic heights exceeding 594 dm in latter January near by E of the Bahamas, pressing up against a mid Canadian shield PV that's below 500. nothing is going to squeeze thru there and conserve enough of it's own mechanics capable of doing jack shit Expand It was only a matter of time before this post was coming lol 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:37 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: It was only a matter of time before this post was coming lol Expand Was just thinking the same thing. At this point, I feel like the only thing that's going to happen is a surprise. Everything modeled never turns out the way it shows, especially when it's showing something major and then as we get within a week of the event, it just gets squashed. I do feel we'll have that surprise, just don't know when.. uugghh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 2:00 PM, weatherwiz said: How do you think I feel in the Summer I make a thread for convection...just general thunderstorms with maybe a rogue severe storm or two and everyone is screaming bust because there are no EF3s or widespread destructive winds or widespread hail...NO SHIT....never said there was going to be. Expand But there’s also never any thunderstorms anymore. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:37 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: It was only a matter of time before this post was coming lol Expand might be time to start admitting certain large scale irrecoverable limitations 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 In case anybody cares, today is the anniversary of the Great Molasses Flood in Boston. It was definitely a weather related event. https://www.history.com/news/great-molasses-flood-science 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 7:11 PM, Typhoon Tip said: might be time to start admitting certain large scale irrecoverable limitations Expand Fast flow, destructive interference, compression… it seems like it’s been going on for multiple years in a row now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:51 PM, Snowcrazed71 said: Was just thinking the same thing. At this point, I feel like the only thing that's going to happen is a surprise. Everything modeled never turns out the way it shows, especially when it's showing something major and then as we get within a week of the event, it just gets squashed. I do feel we'll have that surprise, just don't know when.. uugghh Expand Late April early May??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 7:28 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: In case anybody cares, today is the anniversary of the Great Molasses Flood in Boston. It was definitely a weather related event. https://www.history.com/news/great-molasses-flood-science Expand I read a really good book about this. Dark Tide by Stephen Puleo. A bad case of corporate malfeasance for sure 106 years ago. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:09 PM, weathafella said: I read a really good book about this. Dark Tide by Stephen Puleo. A bad case of corporate malfeasance for sure 106 years ago. Expand Only 21" of snow that season. Do you just let the molasses take you at that point? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 6:33 PM, Typhoon Tip said: thank god then ... winter's half over today by met calendar. Expand This makes me sad 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 7:30 PM, HIPPYVALLEY said: Fast flow, destructive interference, compression… it seems like it’s been going on for multiple years in a row now. Expand Doesn't seem like a large enough sample size to me to make any definitive correlations. Not saying there isn't though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:24 PM, MJO812 said: This makes me sad Expand Not me, at this point. If I could opt out of this season right now, I would do so without blinking. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:27 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Doesn't seem like a large enough sample size to me to make any definitive correlations. Not saying there isn't though Expand Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 5:47 PM, kdxken said: Heads up to folks out there. There's a nasty virus going around. I thankfully very rarely catch any bugs. Probably been 25 years since the last time. Last night I started shaking uncontrollably, severe headache and pressure in the forehead. The girlfriend had it earlier in the week and a neighbor as well. Expand On 1/15/2025 at 5:53 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: I had something weird happen to me last night. I run my school ski club. I basically sit in the Wachusett base lodge while the kids ski in case they need anything. So, time to leave. I had been sitting and standing inside for 4 hours. Go to walk to my car. Maybe 300 feet. And it was chilly…20F, but nothing bad When I got to my car, I had the worst case of shivering I can ever recall experiencing I could barely open the door to the car and start it It lasted around 3 or 4 minutes I almost called 911, then it went away Expand This exact same thing happened to me in late January/early February of 2020. I have never had such uncontrollable shivering and general achiness. It was before Covid blew up so I don't think it was that and it didn't last all that long, maybe 2 or 3 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine. Expand I just meant with cc, at least I think that's what was being implied by Tip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:06 PM, doug1991 said: Late April early May??? Expand Exactly... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:53 PM, mreaves said: This exact same thing happened to me in late January/early February of 2020. I have never had such uncontrollable shivering and general achiness. It was before Covid blew up so I don't think it was that and it didn't last all that long, maybe 2 or 3 days. Expand Okay, all this talk about being sick and the shivers, please stop talking about it. I don't need to catch this from any of you.... Hahaha. It does suck joe. We've been lucky in our house as of this season. My daughter just had a real bad cold but that was it. Hopefully we miss this round this year. Sorry to any of you who didn't 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:17 PM, OceanStWx said: Only 21" of snow that season. Do you just let the molasses take you at that point? Expand At this point, might as well. Browsing through the mid Atlantic pages and see most down there have already beaten my 6" so far. Bring on the slow molasses death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:20 PM, Cold Miser said: At this point, might as well. Browsing through the mid Atlantic pages and see most down there have already beaten my 6" so far. Bring on the slow molasses death. Expand 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 9:09 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I just meant with cc, at least I think that's what was being implied by Tip. Expand I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 So CC has given us permanently fast/compressed flow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 8:27 PM, SouthCoastMA said: Doesn't seem like a large enough sample size to me to make any definitive correlations. Not saying there isn't though Expand On 1/15/2025 at 8:40 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Depends on the pattern...it usually is an issue somewhere, it just depends on how the medium is slanted. This season, we're in the compression field, but south of us has done just fine. Expand On 1/15/2025 at 9:09 PM, SouthCoastMA said: I just meant with cc, at least I think that's what was being implied by Tip. Expand On 1/15/2025 at 9:53 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I know. Expand My thoughts with respect to the CC/increased compression correlation are that its not reducing the frequency of major storms at any one location, as like I said above, you are going to be more pone to compression issues somewhere when you displace a PV southward. However, I do think that it makes a repeat of seasons like 1995, where it was a an orgy up and down the east coast, a much taller task because we are more likely to see that aforementioned "zone of compression" than we were decades ago. ...THAT is a manifestation of CC. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:03 PM, H2Otown_WX said: So CC has given us permanently fast/compressed flow? Expand On 1/15/2025 at 10:04 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: My thoughts with respect to the CC/increased compression correlation are that its not reducing the frequency of major storms at any one location, as like I said above, you are going to be more pone to compression issues somewhere when you displace a PV southward. However, I do think that it makes a repeat of seasons like 1995, where it was a an orgy up and down the east coast, a much taller task because we are more likely to see that aforementioned "zone of compression" than we were decades ago. ...THAT is a manifestation of CC. Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Like most CC attributions, there is some merit to it, but folks (not directed at anyone in particular) get carried away with it and exaggerate said attribution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Hadley cell gonna swallow us hole. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/15/2025 at 10:07 PM, CoastalWx said: Hadley cell gonna swallow us hole. Expand unless this is a pun ... i think you mean swallow us "whole" - but come to think about it .. hole is better lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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