Joker January

[CoastalWx]

Those lower height anomalies west of Baja also might be a sign of some STJ involvement. Given that look of significant ridging, it’s probably needed to help with any suppression. 

[mitchnick]

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'.

Next as in 1/5

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:09 PM, mitchnick said:

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'.

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Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

[mitchnick]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

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Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:13 PM, mitchnick said:

Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

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CFS too

[kdxken]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

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GFS looks to avoid the earlier big rainer. That would be nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

guys  just fyi, it's not just the euro.  we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread.  lol

it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -'

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

guys  just fyi, it's not just the euro.  we've been expounding over the first week of january, with cited examples and deep theoretical discussion for a couple of days in this thread.  lol

it's funny how folks amble in like, 'hey, guess what -'

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lol this is a ridiculous look. split flow, -EPO, elongated TPV, 50/50 ULL, and vorticity hanging out over the SW

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:13 PM, mitchnick said:

Euro AI has been hitting it hard in that time frame for multiple runs now.

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Let’s get that more east.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

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 No SE ridge there. 

[MJO812]

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/22/2024 at 4:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good stuff, John...thanks. Always learn something from your posts.

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I learn there are at least two more words I don't know the meaning of in every post.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:17 PM, MJO812 said:

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Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:11 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Only 13 days to go! 
 

The longwave look is quite nice though for that period in the Jan 3-5 range. So we could def cook something up there. 

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quick, someone start a thread!

[moneypitmike]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 

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Agreed.  At this time range it doesn't really matter....just mild amusement for now.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

 No SE ridge there. 

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Yeah it’s been kicked down into South America. That period between Jan 3-6 looks really ripe at least. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just glancing at the 12z EURO suite....looks like SWFE NYE, great coastal Jan 2 and then maybe something with a sharper N cut off INVO Jan 5.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:21 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Very little cold air for that new years threat so it will be marginal and likely favor NNE and/or interior. 

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Pretty strong Hi NE of ME, albeit weakening/retreating....

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:17 PM, MJO812 said:

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that's the one i'm more focused on at this time rather than the crazed unlikeliness out there in the quackery time range -

 

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm not concerning with ptype at this range... could be rain.  i'm trying to be right for the right reason on where storm genesis/impacts take place in general.

i'm willing to bet that the nao's influence on temperatures at this range is open to modulation anyway.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

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the gefs ending frame is shockingly amplified at the wholesale hemispheric scope on this particular 12z mean - i've not ever seen that at this range, frankly.  

it's 360 dopey hours but ... usually by d10 the noise of the members is transforming the mean into a annular structure ...  but this is just weird what that's doing

[Typhoon Tip]

for 270 hrs out in time, to mention also the erstwhile coursework of discussion ..data et al, this is a fantastic signal - and it is in both the gefs and eps

 

[weathafella]

Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range.  Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies.

 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 12/22/2024 at 9:30 PM, weathafella said:

Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range.  Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies.

 

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We 4 wave in 2015 lets do it again 

[monadnocks]

  On 12/22/2024 at 6:09 PM, mitchnick said:

12z Euro has a Blizzard next weekend. Just sayin'.

Next as in 1/5

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If southern NH is going to have a blizzard in January, it'll be on the 4th. It's a tightly scheduled day, just perfect for a storm. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Lol.... I'm traveling to Florida on the 2nd first thing in the morning and coming back Sunday the 5th. Going to a memorial for my cousin's mom who passed away. Watch us have an epic blizzard when I'm gone

[Henry's Weather]

  On 12/22/2024 at 7:13 PM, ORH_wxman said:

EPS 11-15 day composite. 
 

That’s pretty classic…even with a little STJ involvement for once as others have pointed out. Potential and verification are two different things though. Hopefully it produces. 
 

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It would be ideal to have an AI that finds all the five-day periods similar to projected five-day maps for analoging purposes

[Henry's Weather]

  On 12/22/2024 at 9:30 PM, weathafella said:

Looks like a 3 wave nhem pattern trying to set up in the long medium range.  Those tend to be long lasting if it verifies.

 

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What is a three-wave pattern?

[weathafella]

  On 12/23/2024 at 1:03 AM, Henry's Weather said:

What is a three-wave pattern?

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If you look at the broad troughs in the picture you’ll count 3 of them on the NHEM view of gefs and eps.  4-5 wave patterns tend to occur more frequently I think.