Joker January

[Prismshine Productions]

The Quartermark for the century has come... Who knows what awaits in the pattern ahead
 
 
 
 

[Damage In Tolland]

Jester ? The molester? 

[CoastalWx]

Tanuary to start.

[WinterWolf]

Now we’re making threads for months that don’t start for more than two weeks?  This place is going down the tubes. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Now we’re making threads for months that don’t start for more than two weeks?  This place is going down the tubes. 

Mainly made it as a place holder, besides, beats glaring at the blowtorch next week

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[Torch Tiger]

Hopefully a well AN month with a few light snow events to "temper tantrums" 

[brooklynwx99]

seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7

[Damage In Tolland]

I swear I am reading the January thread from last year 

[Prismshine Productions]

seems like the Pacific trough retrogrades quickly around NYE. could take a week or so to flush out the warmer air, though with no blocking it shouldn't take forever. probably get into a legitimately colder pattern around 1/7

Ah so literally rinse wash and repeat from last year... How do the weeklies look?

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[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Ah so literally rinse wash and repeat from last year... How do the weeklies look?

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they look good. the context is different from last year, though. this isn't a super Nino so we aren't going to see a raging Pacific jet all year

[ROOSTA]

OT
I didn't know where to post this.
Many people here are under-educated in this field of science.
A new year, this URL is for those who would like to learn. I hope this helps some.

Glossary of Meteorology

 

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Mainly made it as a place holder, besides, beats glaring at the blowtorch next week

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Is this for Jan 25 or Jan 26?

[Prismshine Productions]

Is this for Jan 25 or Jan 26?

You have no idea how bad I want to say President's Day XD

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[H2Otown_WX]

Definitely getting the deja vu feeling...wonder if there's some kind of lag from the super Nino last year? We had lag during a moderate or strong Nina in 2010-11. Sadly that's the last time we really had a -NAO I think.

[DavisStraight]

I would be happy if we can get one 20-24 incher in January or even February, miss those big storms, it's like a two day holiday. Multiple small ones are ok too but not the same.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

I would be happy if we can get one 20-24 incher in January or even February, miss those big storms, it's like a two day holiday. Multiple small ones are ok too but not the same.

Agree. I personally Haven’t had an 18+ event since Jan 11. This area, Feb13. Came close a few times and some colossal busts. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

26 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Agree. I personally Haven’t had an 18+ event since Jan 11. This area, Feb13. Came close a few times and some colossal busts. 

Yup.  WNE gets set up like a bowling pin and then gets knocked down. It gets to wearin' thin but we just keep truckin' on.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December...

January 2025 Outlook

January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974

 

The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal.

 

 

January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO

[40/70 Benchmark]

[CoastalWx]

My guess is we wait later into the first week if we are to see anything worth tracking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

[Prismshine Productions]

 Here are my thoughts from last month....hopefully my timing isn't off, but confident the general idea for the season is right. Mismatch period def. got started earlier than I though in December... January 2025 Outlook January Analogs: 2022x2, 2023, 2014, 2000,1974   The "mismatch" month should be the one true winter month this season. Ironically enough, it will be accompanied by an intensifying polar vortex, as the -WPO/+PNA should allow the cold to compete with the warmth in both duration and magnitude. The cold should not be as anomalous overall as some of the other mismatch periods, as New England will finish anywhere from near normal to 2F above average and the mid Atlantic from 1 to 3F above average. The region should be on the look out for a powerful Miller B KU type of event between January 21 and February 4, before the MJO makes another run for the MC near or shortly after the close of the month. Precipitation should near to perhaps slightly below average across the region, while snowfall is near to above normal.    

January MC Deviation Primarily Driven by -WPO

Since I am still relatively new here... Can you explain the difference between a KU, HECS, and MECS?

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[dendrite]

Kocin-Uccellini book worthy storm

HECS MECS BECS are Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) terms…historical major biblical east coast snowstorms 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Kocin-Uccellini book worthy storm

HECS MECS BECS are Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) terms…historical major biblical east coast snowstorms 

Since we don't get these anymore we may need to derive some acronyms for our cutters and rain storms.  

[Prismshine Productions]

Kocin-Uccellini book worthy storm
HECS MECS BECS are Dave Tolleris (wxrisk.com) terms…historical major biblical east coast snowstorms 

Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact:

BECS
KU
MECS
HECS?

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[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact:

BECS
KU
MECS
HECS?

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All of them are KUs.....the acronyms are subsets that are parsed by severity.

[Prismshine Productions]

All of them are KUs.....the acronyms are subsets that are parsed by severity.

Ah, thank you

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[wx2fish]

Can work with the end of the EPS (now into early Jan)

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Thanks for letting me know, guess in order of impact:

BECS
KU
MECS
HECS?

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As Ray said they’re all KUs but in order of severity 

BECS—think superstorm of 93

HECS—January 2022 blizzard in eastern Mass or the 2016 blizzard from DC to SNE

MECS—your run of the mill 8-12” snowfall from Philly to Portland

[WinterWolf]

Or Blizzard of 78 and 2013 for BECS.