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18z euro btw makes our point from the other day about how nuanced modulation in the amt of back drill exertion from up north (nao idiosyncratic handling..) can mean big changes to cyclone placement...   

it's still going to be a razor wall on the n side ( 7th ) but this run shifted that deform axis considerably north.  another shift of that magnitude and we're probably getting snows into sne

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18 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

wow ... it's way and hell and gone out at the temporal horizon but that is a kidney bean 2 wave cross polar flow here

image.png.a0407f39eb33256568081eb6d7b269f2.png

The NAO configuration I like a lot more on that too. We talk about about different types of -NAOs but the version that backs up from Scandinavia through Iceland and Greenland tend to be extremely productive for us when we have western ridging. They don’t suffocate us as much. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO configuration I like a lot more on that too. We talk about about different types of -NAOs but the version that backs up from Scandinavia through Iceland and Greenland tend to be extremely productive for us when we have western ridging. They don’t suffocate us as much. 

Let’s go Feb 2003

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16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The NAO configuration I like a lot more on that too. We talk about about different types of -NAOs but the version that backs up from Scandinavia through Iceland and Greenland tend to be extremely productive for us when we have western ridging. They don’t suffocate us as much. 

This is the type of -NAO I like to see. What it comes to NAO correlating with snow here, especially larger storms…forget what the raw index is, structure is important and this is what you want to see

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12 minutes ago, Henry's Weather said:

Everybody here is too old for this reference

Not in my house....the 11 and 6 year old boy have made sure we are familiar with that. Wayyyy too often.....

With regards to the 6th, seems like the GFS has been playing catch up on the speed of the system. Quicker it gets here, the less established the confluence is?

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