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Just now, George001 said:

In the other forum im on i am seeing mass panic from mid Atlantic weenies in the main thread. I like seeing that, I hope they rain! Lets get this fucker another 200 miles north.

This is classic N trends from the early 2000’s. I remember those days vividly . That’s why they hated us and forced us to separate the forum into regions 

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

No I get it…but I mean at these huge lead times, we really can’t know how these morph, or even if they are real.   So I feel that needs to be kept in mind when we see a favorable, or unfavorable outcome at such long lead times.  

My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining.  It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned.  Maybe I should have used the word "potential".

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14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

If 00z holds I’ll be interested, seems like 18z is always a blip 

I posted about 12z earlier. It’s an outlier but if the Euro could find its former glory for this one that’d be great lol. I was very close to punting this morning but we’ve seen plenty of instances of the confluence seeing substantive changes on guidance outside of 48h.

Still think anything that happens would be light at best but with a cold regime in place that would at least bring back some wintry appeal as the 11th and beyond gets into greater focus. 

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5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining.  It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned.  Maybe I should have used the word "potential".

At 11-15 days 500 miles isn’t surprising at all.  I completely understand what you’re saying, and I agree.  I think my idea is more that these looks aren’t even gonna be close to what they will be 7-8 days from now. So that’s where my mind is.  

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

No spiking anything until we see if this trend is real. But this is so typical of models overdoing TPV confluence past 5 days and weakening closer in . It happened so often in the early and mid 2000’s. Hopefully the trend is real and continues 

We’ve had plenty of squashed systems 

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

We do get scraped by a 959mb low on 1/15. These runs aren’t afraid to put out absolute bombs. Just need to phase one properly for us. 

either the atmosphere or the models are running just a spectacular experiment in maintaining a lit match next to glycerine without ever detonating anything.   this aspect you've noted, '..these runs aren't afraid to put out absolute bombs...' ?  that's just the experiment like accidentally failing for a second, and said potential tunneling through the block of all COC blocks...

i realize i've admonished the troubles with fast hemispheres over the last decade, probably ad naseum for a few users, but ...mm, i'm not sure that is all that is causing this exotic potential to just exist indefinitely  - therefore, i'm inclined to think the models are the problem ( thus ...) but pure supposition.  and that's slim solace until storm actually manifests. which ever it is, it just seems it should be physically impossible to sustain what is actually fucking sustaining so something probably should break.

weird.   it is about as baffling as those 955 mb lows are extreme -

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