Damage In Tolland Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM Just now, George001 said: In the other forum im on i am seeing mass panic from mid Atlantic weenies in the main thread. I like seeing that, I hope they rain! Lets get this fucker another 200 miles north. This is classic N trends from the early 2000’s. I remember those days vividly . That’s why they hated us and forced us to separate the forum into regions 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:55 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: At least here. Maybe BDR has a shot Yea, never had an issue with this making a run from CT over to Taunton...irrelevant for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted Wednesday at 11:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:56 PM 2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: No I get it…but I mean at these huge lead times, we really can’t know how these morph, or even if they are real. So I feel that needs to be kept in mind when we see a favorable, or unfavorable outcome at such long lead times. My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining. It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned. Maybe I should have used the word "potential". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Wednesday at 11:57 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:57 PM 14 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: If 00z holds I’ll be interested, seems like 18z is always a blip I posted about 12z earlier. It’s an outlier but if the Euro could find its former glory for this one that’d be great lol. I was very close to punting this morning but we’ve seen plenty of instances of the confluence seeing substantive changes on guidance outside of 48h. Still think anything that happens would be light at best but with a cold regime in place that would at least bring back some wintry appeal as the 11th and beyond gets into greater focus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted Wednesday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 11:58 PM 15 minutes ago, mreaves said: Not concerned, I locked in the 18Z yesterday. It will come back. Plus we will get a storm on the 17th because we always get a storm on the 17th 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted Thursday at 12:00 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:00 AM 39 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Have some wet flakes mixing in with the un forecast moderate rain. Down to 36 The rain now was well modeled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:01 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:01 AM Just now, weathafella said: The rain now was well modeled. I had .30 this evening Did not see anything showing that much. Wet flakes and 35 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 12:03 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:03 AM .58 on the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:04 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:04 AM No spiking anything until we see if this trend is real. But this is so typical of models overdoing TPV confluence past 5 days and weakening closer in . It happened so often in the early and mid 2000’s. Hopefully the trend is real and continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Thursday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:05 AM 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’ll go Pamela Anderson until Teri Hatcher is in my face. Gilfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Thursday at 12:05 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:05 AM 5 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: My only point was that we would like to see this move a couple of hundred miles closer in the time remaining. It is a threat as far as that specfic run is concerned. Maybe I should have used the word "potential". At 11-15 days 500 miles isn’t surprising at all. I completely understand what you’re saying, and I agree. I think my idea is more that these looks aren’t even gonna be close to what they will be 7-8 days from now. So that’s where my mind is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Thursday at 12:06 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:06 AM 26 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Yeah just saw 18z Euro. He’s right . Has 1-3” most of CT with measurable north of pike I'm happier with nothing. Nothing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM 23 minutes ago, kdxken said: So long, farewell Auf Wiederseh'n, adieu Lets hope we don’t get Von Stupped. 15 snchitzengruben is my limit and I’m there already. I’m not from Havana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM All snow now. Big wet flakes 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:07 AM 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: No spiking anything until we see if this trend is real. But this is so typical of models overdoing TPV confluence past 5 days and weakening closer in . It happened so often in the early and mid 2000’s. Hopefully the trend is real and continues We’ve had plenty of squashed systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:09 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:09 AM Just now, CoastalWx said: We’ve had plenty of squashed systems In that era I mentioned . The north trend was born. Friends became separated and enemies were made 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Thursday at 12:11 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:11 AM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: We do get scraped by a 959mb low on 1/15. These runs aren’t afraid to put out absolute bombs. Just need to phase one properly for us. either the atmosphere or the models are running just a spectacular experiment in maintaining a lit match next to glycerine without ever detonating anything. this aspect you've noted, '..these runs aren't afraid to put out absolute bombs...' ? that's just the experiment like accidentally failing for a second, and said potential tunneling through the block of all COC blocks... i realize i've admonished the troubles with fast hemispheres over the last decade, probably ad naseum for a few users, but ...mm, i'm not sure that is all that is causing this exotic potential to just exist indefinitely - therefore, i'm inclined to think the models are the problem ( thus ...) but pure supposition. and that's slim solace until storm actually manifests. which ever it is, it just seems it should be physically impossible to sustain what is actually fucking sustaining so something probably should break. weird. it is about as baffling as those 955 mb lows are extreme - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:19 AM It’s also attenuating as it moves east so you’ll really need some significant changes. I don’t have hope here but maybe areas further south. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Thursday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:19 AM Treetop winds are picking up. Tomorrow may be decent wind-wise. My tarps will likely have blown to Dover by the time I get to work. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Thursday at 12:19 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:19 AM 11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All snow now. Big wet flakes Might get coated up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 12:25 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:25 AM 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s also attenuating as it moves east so you’ll really need some significant changes. I don’t have hope here but maybe areas further south. Yeah, I think there’s a low ceiling for any impact, and if anything happens it’s most likely CT-RI-SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Thursday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 AM 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Might get coated up. Still pretty warm at 34.9.. I saw the hi res printing out 1-2” but I knew most of that was above freezing . Probably not much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Thursday at 12:26 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:26 AM 19 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: All snow now. Big wet flakes Starting here too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:27 AM Just now, Damage In Tolland said: Still pretty warm at 34.9.. I saw the hi res printing out 1-2” but I knew most of that was above freezing . Probably not much atleast you got precip hoping we fill in the next couple hours like the Euro shows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:34 AM No complaints here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 12:37 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:37 AM some 18z GEFS members came North for the Monday deal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM 10 minutes ago, ineedsnow said: atleast you got precip hoping we fill in the next couple hours like the Euro shows HRRR dos also, looks like it gives us a coating to 1/2 inch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:38 AM FWIW none of these showed anything at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Thursday at 12:40 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:40 AM Not biting yet despite the large move on 18z euro. Need to see a definitive move on 00z from most guidance. If we see that, then it gets interesting…esp south of pike. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Thursday at 12:41 AM Share Posted Thursday at 12:41 AM I need to see this take root on other guidance at 00z. Euro is on an island until then. Would definitely like to see a stronger vort and less confluence combination. Edit: ninja’d by Will Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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