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Jester January


Prismshine Productions
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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The chance seems great enough to mention . If you issue a partly cloudy forecast and the north trends continue , it’s not a good look to the public. So you’ve got to acknowledge in a forecast this may happen , but will need to monitor birth trends 

I don't disagree with your reasoning, so it comes down to personal confidence that the probability is high enough to insert it into a 6 day forecast?  At this time, I would say no.  That's for a public forecast.  In discussions with my private clients (dpw and or maintenance contractors) I've thrown that out there as a low threat period but have not been bullish.  If a northerly trend were to develop over the next 48 hours, I would then elevate the concern; still minor though.

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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So... Is this forecast in stone? C'mon people. Yeah, it's gut wrenching.... But it's not written in stone ... Especially for the 11th.However, I'v succumbed to the fact that 1/6-1/7 is probably not happening for us though. 

1/7 has been toast for days....days and days of toast. Still hope for 1/11.

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7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll probably get something in my 1/21 to 2/4 window, as the pattern relaxes.

Fits with what I mentioned a few pages back about it being the week after this threat that is on the board, good snows come from the backend of a cold pattern relaxing

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2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I know, 2015 isn't walking through the door blah blah blah....but I recall we spent most of January 2015 in a good pattern that just wouldn't produce.  I remember frustration levels at an all-time high.  Is my memory of that wrong?  Always a possibility.

No, you’re correct. That was looking very bleak at the time.  Pretty much The whole month of January sucked that year until the last 3-5 days. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The chance seems great enough to mention . If you issue a partly cloudy forecast and the north trends continue , it’s not a good look to the public. So you’ve got to acknowledge in a forecast this may happen , but will need to monitor birth trends 

There is nothing worse than having to deescalate the sense of urgency around a storm threat...this is why all of the reputable public and private sector mets are deliberate in conveying increased concern. Clients need ro prepare in advance and its costly when a forecaster cries wolf.

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4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

There is nothing worse than having to deescalate the sense of urgency around a storm threat...this is why all of the reputable public and private sector mets are deliberate in conveying increased concern. Clients need ro prepare in advance and its costly when a forecastee cries wolf.

This right here. There is a lot of money to be had in the private sector of meteorology and people/businesses willing to pay good $$$$ for it. In that sector, nobody wants to hear words like "Potential", "This looks god but....", They don't want or care about the ifs. This is where the confidence is the forecaster is immense and how the forecast is communicated is huge.. 

If they wanted to or cared about the "ifs" they could just get that freely from social media or other outlets. They are paying for skill and paying someone to differentiate for them when there is real potential/concern versus the "hype". If you're in the private sector and forecast for people or a business that can have operations severely impacted by winter weather and everyime you're telling them the pattern looks favorable for snow because of pretty blue colors and they start changing operations to prepare...you're going to cost businesses a ton of money and have some very angry people to deal with. 

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

They still struggle with snow in CT

Is it me or does it seem like local governments or investing less finances into winter mode resources? For example, growing up in West Hartford, even after large snowstorms, the roads were in great conditions very quickly. Meanwhile you went over a town to Hartford...disaster. While I haven't lived in West Hartford in several years, I am still there often and even after some winter events...it doesn't seem like they care for the roads like they used to.

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6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

If it's going to go south, go way south. I don't want flurries while Philly and NYC clean up.

Yes, this is much more palatable for me than another CT band that rips through Brett. I'm glad it stayed away bc I was most ill positioned of anyone in the region (what else is new) considering that confluence. 

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34 minutes ago, dryslot said:

At least over the next 10 days or so looks to produce upslope snow into the mtns up here.

I just hope New Hampshire gets a good base; I want to snowmobile in February. Went up by Cannon last year, good trails and they had a decent base, also snowed a couple inches while we were out there.

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24 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

My kids have reached the age where they are complaining about the lack of sledding.

 

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You are very lucky The wolf is resting in his den right now…

He’s looking at the gfs and just yells this SUCKS!! My wife immediately chimes in to scold him about his language. My response is he’s 100% right and correct with his thoughts, Alison. Honest to God lol.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

 

He’s looking at the gfs and just yells this SUCKS!! My wife immediately chimes in to scold him about his language. My response is he’s 100% right and correct with his thoughts, Alison. Honest to God lol.

"Thank you Bryce for expressing your feelings with words and not violent actions."

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It’s an outlier yada yada and I know nobody cares in Mass and points north, but the Euro did try to get very light precip a touch further north with 1/6.

I don’t think it’s coming back for a region wide crusher obviously but even .1 of qpf could be good for a ground whitener if someone can steal it. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 

He’s looking at the gfs and just yells this SUCKS!! My wife immediately chimes in to scold him about his language. My response is he’s 100% right and correct with his thoughts, Alison. Honest to God lol.

Give him another 2 years of these winter trends and he will upgrade to "f*CK this sh*t" as he slams the iPad on the floor.. lol

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