Jester January

[OceanStWx]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only way for SNE to see decent snow from the 1/6-7 threat is for a partial phase with TPV. If we can phase one of the spokes of energy then maybe it had a shot but we haven’t really seen those solutions…a couple runs have come close but nothing that leaves you waiting on the edge of your seat for next model run. 

I'll give Kevin credit, a fully 2 out of 100 ensemble members bring advisory snow to ORH. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

When the PV gets trapped in your back yard, EPO becomes less of a worry. Honestly looked like the ridge was rebuilding in the Bering near end of EPS anyway. 
 

 

Yeah Pacific isn’t bad at all. When that axis goes west, it should be better for us. I hope. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll give Kevin credit, a fully 2 out of 100 ensemble members bring advisory snow to ORH. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Well he’s a met right?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

I'll give Kevin credit, a fully 2 out of 100 ensemble members bring advisory snow to ORH. So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Walt noted the GEFS also lessened the confluence to the north allowing a north bump potentially. I don’t see why 1-3” or something isn’t possible 

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, doug1991 said:

Love that webcam. They need the snow bad. Past 5 or 6 winters have been really bad in that area. They depend on good winters up there. 

Pretty thin up there, Rode to the forks a couple times but rode mainly the Eustis, Rangeley and Pittsburg corridor last winter.

[Lava Rock]

At least some areas are seeing snow, Looks to be ripping in Jackman

Can't access. Too many peeps checking the cam

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[George001]

52 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We’ve been saying this for days, and were mocked for it.

Hope everyone enjoys the next 14-21 days of cool and dry 

It’s possible we get nothing, but the large scale features argue for an increased probability of big snows in January. If we get unlucky and whiff on every threat so be it, but I like my chances. Give me the cold and I’ll take my chances with precip. 

[doug1991]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pretty thin up there, Rode to the forks a couple times but rode mainly the Eustis, Rangeley and Pittsburg corridor last winter.

Yea last winter was pretty bad. Record low snow for the sledding season. Pretty Sad they received more snow in April than the month of Feb in 2024. This pattern needs to change at some point.

[doug1991]

6 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can't access. Too many peeps checking the cam

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Yea happens there quite a bit

[George001]

For the 11th threat, we continue to see the models flip flop. The most recent runs have the energy buried out west so it never gets out ahead of the northern energy, leading to an out to sea solution. Yesterday had a 951 MB low plowing into NNE on the gfs. It will continue to go back and forth over the next week. I don’t want to see the low plowing into NNE, but I am hoping the models converge on the solutions where the energy is ejected faster so we have a shot. That’s a legitimate big storm potential. If that storm gets buried out west the cold and dry idea will end up being correct, and we will have to wait until mid month and beyond. As for the 6th…. I’m not holding out any hope for that one with confluence modeled over New England. Just no room for that low to come up the coast.

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can't access. Too many peeps checking the cam

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

 

5 minutes ago, doug1991 said:

Yea happens there quite a bit

This is another good site to access more web cams,

https://maine-webcams.com/maine-webcam-map/

[dryslot]

13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can't access. Too many peeps checking the cam

Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk
 

Its just puking snow there right now.

[FXWX]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Walt noted the GEFS also lessened the confluence to the north allowing a north bump potentially. I don’t see why 1-3” or something isn’t possible 

Well, almost anything is possible, but if you were a forecaster who was responsible for a "public" forecast, how would you word your forecast?  Is the possibility high enough to insert into the forecast???  You need to quantify the potential for the public get a sense of confidence?  How would you quantify the threat for 1-3" on Monday?  Is it great enough to insert into a public forecast?  And remember, once you say the possibility exists for 1 to 3", the vast majority of the public, only see the word Snow and  3"??? Is the potential high enough to insert into the forecast?  I'm ok with saying a "low-grade" risk of some light snow exist but would not mention any amounts.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Well, almost anything is possible, but if you were a forecaster who was responsible for a "public" forecast, how would you word your forecast?  Is the possibility high enough to insert into the forecast???  You need to quantify the potential for the public get a sense of confidence?  How would you quantify the threat for 1-3" on Monday?  Is it great enough to insert into a public forecast?  And remember, once you say the possibility exists for 1 to 3", the vast majority of the public, only see the word Snow and  3"??? Is the potential high enough to insert into the forecast?  I'm ok with saying a "low-grade" risk of some light snow exist but would not mention any amounts.

The chance seems great enough to mention . If you issue a partly cloudy forecast and the north trends continue , it’s not a good look to the public. So you’ve got to acknowledge in a forecast this may happen , but will need to monitor birth trends 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The chance seems great enough to mention . If you issue a partly cloudy forecast and the north trends continue , it’s not a good look to the public. So you’ve got to acknowledge in a forecast this may happen , but will need to monitor birth trends 

What north trend? 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

What north trend? 

The ones that happened overnight . Read Walt’s posts 

[dendrite]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Its just puking snow there right now.

The AWOS has had 1/4sm for 2hrs now

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The ones that happened overnight 

How many IPAs trended into your mouth?

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ray watches Twilight Zone reruns every NYD. He’s done it for years.  

So, where is that Snow we are getting for Monday? Nothing Burger as far as the eye can see. 

[Snowcrazed71]

59 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

 

Negativity has been right though. Facts and results matter.

It's fine to be factual and correct. But when you put it in a way that's so negative, most people don't want to hear that. I think we all get when things really suck, but to sit there smear it in and talk about the s*** winter is going to be doesn't help things going forward. For me I can't stand negativity. It's not good for anyone around you and it's not good for yourself.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS is meh

[Snowcrazed71]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Walt noted the GEFS also lessened the confluence to the north allowing a north bump potentially. I don’t see why 1-3” or something isn’t possible 

You're really stretching now. Trust me, we wanted as much as you do. But at this point, it's dead in the water. Things can change, we still have 6 days so I can't say the threat is completely gone. But right now it is

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Only way for SNE to see decent snow from the 1/6-7 threat is for a partial phase with TPV. If we can phase one of the spokes of energy then maybe it had a shot but we haven’t really seen those solutions…a couple runs have come close but nothing that leaves you waiting on the edge of your seat for next model run. 

Look, obviously I don't really know anything.  I just feel like things are jumping around on the models for a reason.  I also ask:

1. Does strong confluence/blocking tend to over or under-perform?

2. Do strong vorts tend to over or under-perform?

Plenty of time to trend  1/6-7 and 1/10-12 even though the 1st one won't get up here, it might trend to get a chunk of SNE with accumulating/plowable.  We've seen that a million times, and this is where Kevin is right.

I implore all to not succumb to misery just yet.

[Lava Rock]

35F. 0.67".

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[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah but you have to acknowledge the possibility since models from time to time have explicitly showed this. Trust me,  nobody is frustrated more than me, but I also see how something 10 days out is a possibility. You can’t just toss it and say too much blocking. It would be more correct to acknowledge that it makes it more difficult based on how the pattern is evolving,  but it’s not a 0.0% chance.

 

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes but you have been ultra negative on many threats that crushed you in the past. That’s how someone becomes not credible. Saying the same thing regardless of outcome. 

I think the NAO is one of the most overrated features we have here. Maybe it helps the high end potential on the margins, but I feel like we’ve done just fine without it before.

There is nothing more miserable than cold and dry, I’d rather flirt with or rain than that.

you aren’t even in the game when it’s dry 

[ineedsnow]

GFS shuts down the south

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GFS shuts down the south

Congrats South Carolina 

[Kitz Craver]

Myrtle Beach Mauler 

[DavisStraight]

46 minutes ago, dryslot said:

 

This is another good site to access more web cams,

https://maine-webcams.com/maine-webcam-map/

I'm surprised by the lack of snow in far northern Maine, just a few piles leftover.

[dryslot]

Carolina nuke.