Jester January

[weathafella]

Ensemble’s really haven’t changed much as we get closer.  Some people are losing their shit when op models show a rainy system on d15.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just referenced the comparison between the two charts. Not a forecast.

I know you did. Just waving a caution flag to those that expect a month long of shlong slapping. 

[CoastalWx]

The title of this thread bothers me. I keep seeing this court Jester with a green weird had juggling balls everytime I post in here.

[ariof]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The title of this thread bothers me. I keep seeing this court Jester with a green weird had juggling balls everytime I post in here.

Would you prefer the classic Tip write-the-whole-analysis-in-the-title thread title?

[weathafella]

I suggest “signs of January not being Tanuary in 2025”

[Snowcrazed71]

43 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know you did. Just waving a caution flag to those that expect a month long of shlong slapping. 

I not sure anyone knows what's going to happen. I just think we all would like to see the same thing in the end. Then we can all slap our Shlongs! 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Ensemble’s really haven’t changed much as we get closer.  Some people are losing their shit when op models show a rainy system on d15.

Gefs 12z is starting the delay dance a bit to my eyes.

[ORH_wxman]

There’s a bit of a model battle. GEFS have diverged decently for the first week of January (really the first 4-5 days)

It’s hitting the deeper troughing out west which will keep us much milder and prob at least one cutter. Maybe a couple. 
 

EPS not buying that idea. Keeps the warmer look to mostly pre-New Years. 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a bit of a model battle. GEFS have diverged decently for the first week of January (really the first 4-5 days)

It’s hitting the deeper troughing out west which will keep us much milder and prob at least one cutter. Maybe a couple. 
 

EPS not buying that idea. Keeps the warmer look to mostly pre-New Years. 

Same thing happened last year 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a bit of a model battle. GEFS have diverged decently for the first week of January (really the first 4-5 days)

It’s hitting the deeper troughing out west which will keep us much milder and prob at least one cutter. Maybe a couple. 
 

EPS not buying that idea. Keeps the warmer look to mostly pre-New Years. 

That's what I was talking about with a delay. I'm sure it's tied to their differing MJO forecasts. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Can't the same be said for those who pounce on any sign of "success"??....as in the"pattern looks great in 10-14 days"

One person (Smegma) was using one OP run to say what he did though, and that is the disingenuous part.  So in this particular case, the answer would be No. It was a pure trolling act. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Same thing happened last year 

Well, we've had cold and some snow this year, which is different from last.  But the feeling in the pit of my stomach seeing the new Gefs is the same as last year.  Lol 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Well, we've had cold and some snow this year, which is different from last.  But the feeling in the pit of my stomach seeing the new Gefs is the same as last year.  Lol 

Wait til happy hour(18z), it all show something different.  And This ain’t last year. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Same thing happened last year 

Western trough has been underestimated many times in the last few years. So far this year though it’s been fairly tame so we’ll see. 
 

12z OP Euro still not buying it. Has a huge ridge out there in early January. We’ll see what ensembles say. 

[CoastalWx]

That's why I think early part is shaky. Although at least there is a little convergence to our north and not a massive Se ridge. Maybe some overrunning. 

[dryslot]

I'm shaking, Violently.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

I'm shaking, Violently.

Scotch?

[ORH_wxman]

GEFS vs EPS for January 3rd

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Tip will be shaking violently seeing the GEFS look is his much beloved high velocity flow.

[dryslot]

Those look identical...............

[SnowGoose69]

The GEFS/GEPS both reverted more western trof near 300 hours but quickly went back to the same pattern after 320.  Its almost as if both keyed in on a strong storm signal.  Any storm in that window would probably cut or come close to doing so anyway

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Those look identical...............

GEPS for the tiebreaker 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

One person (Smegma) was using one OP run to say what he did though, and that is the disingenuous part.  So in this particular case, the answer would be No. It was a pure trolling act. 

My comments are based on some trends I am seeing that are diverging from the weenie ensemble runs. Gefs is pushing the WC narrative harder with OP verifying that while eps remains more WC ridging even though its OP has some WC troughing. All I am saying is pumping the brakes on an epic Jan is certainly warranted. Not only for mental stability but because guidance is hinting at it. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GEPS for the tiebreaker 

Lock in the GEPS and EPS.

[mitchnick]

Geps ends well too.

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

My comments are based on some trends I am seeing that are diverging from the weenie ensemble runs. Gefs is pushing the WC narrative harder with OP verifying that while eps remains more WC ridging even though its OP has some WC troughing. All I am saying is pumping the brakes on an epic Jan is certainly warranted. Not only for mental stability but because guidance is hinting at it. 

Nothing wrong with what you were saying…I get it. Smegma Was what I was referring to.  Also I didn’t see any epic January posts…just a little excitement over what could be a decent period.  I think everybody here understands the situation. 

[ORH_wxman]

29 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The GEFS/GEPS both reverted more western trof near 300 hours but quickly went back to the same pattern after 320.  Its almost as if both keyed in on a strong storm signal.  Any storm in that window would probably cut or come close to doing so anyway

Could be a random storm signal, agreed. But it’s strange how different it is. 
 

Pretty good agreement on MJO going into phase 8 after new years so I think you would no longer have destructive interference so the pattern reverting back to something favorable would make sense. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GEFS vs EPS for January 3rd

 

 

So one brings swfe and one brings coastals?  Both have nice HP to our north but you can see some ridging building into the SE which is the scary part from last year.  The the western trough doesn't look intense and tucked back.