mahk_webstah Posted Wednesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:47 PM 50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Still wouldn’t give up on light event on Monday . At least south of the pike I agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 02:47 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:47 PM 13 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Just got up. We lose the 11th? Sent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk Can’t lose something so far out, but I would say the signal isn’t too strong. My guess is we wait until this breaks down but in the meantime hope we can muster something up before mid month. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:48 PM 3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: We’ve been saying this for days, and were mocked for it. Hope everyone enjoys the next 14-21 days of cool and dry Yeah but you’ve always been negative. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted Wednesday at 02:48 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:48 PM d10. We never had it. Back to bed thenSent from my SM-S921U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted Wednesday at 02:49 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:49 PM 15 minutes ago, Lava Rock said: Just got up. We lose the 11th? Yes, at least until 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 02:51 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:51 PM 1 hour ago, moneypitmike said: No Ray or Will. I don't think that's because of hangovers. No reason to look at guidance for a day 10 threat at 7am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Wednesday at 02:52 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:52 PM gfs is like 15 straight days of E upper level flow over Labrador. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Wednesday at 02:53 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:53 PM 47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: A 1-3” event certainly plausible For central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 02:54 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:54 PM 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah but you’ve always been negative. Yeah credibility matters when you are talking about public discourse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 02:55 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:55 PM It was kind of fun tracking thunderstorms last night. Too bad lapse rates were better than anything we'll get this summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Wednesday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:56 PM Just now, weatherwiz said: It was kind of fun tracking thunderstorms last night. Too bad lapse rates were better than anything we'll get this summer. That was a good show. Best event of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 02:56 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:56 PM 8 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I agree Only way for SNE to see decent snow from the 1/6-7 threat is for a partial phase with TPV. If we can phase one of the spokes of energy then maybe it had a shot but we haven’t really seen those solutions…a couple runs have come close but nothing that leaves you waiting on the edge of your seat for next model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 02:58 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:58 PM Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: That was a good show. Best event of the winter. Elevated instability can do wonders and when you have inversions in place help with those deep, loud rolling sounds of thunder. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted Wednesday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:02 PM 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah but you’ve always been negative. Seriously, if I ever saw him post something positive, I'd probably call in a wellness check. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Wednesday at 03:02 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:02 PM 42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I guess. Honestly I don’t even care about analyzing anymore. I’m so done with always looking ahead. I’m basically in the mode of not caring unless we are 5 days from something. Nothing like chapped ass cheeks and 40MPH winds for two weeks straight. No kidding man, gonna be pretty bitter if we blow all of this cold air with nothing to show for it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Wednesday at 03:03 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:03 PM 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah but you’ve always been negative. 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah credibility matters when you are talking about public discourse. Negativity has been right though. Facts and results matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nianticct Posted Wednesday at 03:06 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:06 PM On 12/30/2024 at 7:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Not in this thread. Weenie-ing out over April weather is why we have the December thread. Quote Quote Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 03:09 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:09 PM 13 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Negativity has been right though. Facts and results matter. Yeah but you have to acknowledge the possibility since models from time to time have explicitly showed this. Trust me, nobody is frustrated more than me, but I also see how something 10 days out is a possibility. You can’t just toss it and say too much blocking. It would be more correct to acknowledge that it makes it more difficult based on how the pattern is evolving, but it’s not a 0.0% chance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 03:10 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:10 PM 6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: Negativity has been right though. Facts and results matter. Yes but you have been ultra negative on many threats that crushed you in the past. That’s how someone becomes not credible. Saying the same thing regardless of outcome. 3 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Anyone worried that the gefs and eps have the EPO going positive ? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:14 PM 20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: For central NJ. Even up to your area it’s a legit possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted Wednesday at 03:15 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:15 PM At least some areas are seeing snow, Looks to be ripping in Jackman 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Just now, dryslot said: At least some areas are seeing snow, Looks to be ripping in Jackman Love that webcam. They need the snow bad. Past 5 or 6 winters have been really bad in that area. They depend on good winters up there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM 1 minute ago, MJO812 said: Anyone worried that the gefs and eps have the EPO going positive ? Wasn’t Tip saying that a few days ago? February comes and we could rapidly go into nape season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:17 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Anyone worried that the gefs and eps have the EPO going positive ? The block will retro and trough axis shifts west a bit. But it also looked like the NAO would try to stay more negative. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doug1991 Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM Another web cam in Maine I like to view but better elevation than Jackman. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:22 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The block will retro and trough axis shifts west a bit. But it also looked like the NAO would try to stay more negative. The Pacific doesn't really seem terrible moving forward and I would much rather have this NAO block relax some and the NAO signal to be skewed negative, but closer to neutral. I think in this scenario (with a favorable PAC) we keep cutter concerns at bay but introduce a more active storm track. I would love to start seeing a more active southern stream involvement. I know Ray and I kind of disagree on this but I think I would much prefer to roll with that at this point. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: The block will retro and trough axis shifts west a bit. But it also looked like the NAO would try to stay more negative. When the PV gets trapped in your back yard, EPO becomes less of a worry. Honestly looked like the ridge was rebuilding in the Bering near end of EPS anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:23 PM ICON speeds it up a little and pushes 1/6 a little more north but still need a big move to get SNE involved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 03:24 PM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:24 PM Just now, weatherwiz said: The Pacific doesn't really seem terrible moving forward and I would much rather have this NAO block relax some and the NAO signal to be skewed negative, but closer to neutral. I think in this scenario (with a favorable PAC) we keep cutter concerns at bay but introduce a more active storm track. I would love to start seeing a more active southern stream involvement. I know Ray and I kind of disagree on this but I think I would much prefer to roll with that at this point. No it doesn’t look bad at all. It’s not even a massive -NAO, it’s just this giant trough gyre held in by the block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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