mahk_webstah Posted Wednesday at 01:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:33 AM Just now, dendrite said: Get me that 1052 modeled and we can have a 100mb difference in 6hrs I think 78 was 80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Wednesday at 01:48 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:48 AM 15 minutes ago, dendrite said: Get me that 1052 modeled and we can have a 100mb difference in 6hrs not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:50 AM 1 hour ago, 78Blizzard said: Different animal. This is a progressive system, not a stall like in 1978. I understand that, but like I said....trumps 1978..just cuts off a bit later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Wednesday at 01:50 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:50 AM I love how one 18z run sux everyone into it again . each and all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 01:51 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:51 AM 18 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Lines up better with my outlook, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted Wednesday at 01:51 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:51 AM I legitimately see nothing to be excited about at the moment. I know some are still hitting the delusion for the 6th, but that’s long gone. I don’t get excited for hour 300 OP runs anymore. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Wednesday at 01:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:54 AM 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: I love how one 18z run sux everyone into it again . each and all If anything, I think it reminds everybody that there's no real solution. There's no " out to see " solution and there's no " cutter solution ". Everything's on the table. Also tells me why I I shouldn't get myself all worried about what's going to happen ( or not going to happen ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 01:56 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 01:56 AM GEFS actually a little worse than 12z.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:01 AM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: How fast did Cleveland superbomb in 1978 deepen? I know it got down to about 955mb in Ohio Yeah, I thought about that storm; but this one surpasses that as modeled. I’m not really sure about the actual DP/dt of the Cleveland superbomb - that’s like some kind of buried ultra nerd data fantasy vital scoring. I guess I could search for awhile … but I’m speaking specifically to the model governing parametrics in the wholesales synopsis across the continent. I’ve never seen such a massive SPV plumbed deeper than 500 dam - executing such a high proficiency subsuming scenario on top of it is really in totality just beyond the extraordinary. it’s really just for ogling model potentials tho … doubt very much that will pass the reality test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Wednesday at 02:03 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:03 AM 1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said: i seriously can't find anything like that in history... i wonder if there's ever been anything like that in 'model history' 01-26-1978 (further west of course) 11-09-1913 (also west) _ Lake huron shipping disaster 10-12-1962 west coast _ large-scale forest blowdown A very intense low near Long Island 03-01-1914 was near 950. NYC's lowest SLP. Blizzard of 1888, 1899 (Feb) also in ballpark possibly? Extreme cold and blizzards of Jan 19-22 1857. Oct 1987 in Britain All very high impact situations. ... and also full moon, tidal surge potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted Wednesday at 02:09 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:09 AM 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: How fast did Cleveland superbomb in 1978 deepen? I know it got down to about 955mb in Ohio It dropped by 40 in 6-9hrs after leaving AL at 995 mbs. Winds were 90+ kts near London ON and large towers were blown over. Also Nov 9 1913, 80-90 kt winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted Wednesday at 02:16 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:16 AM 7 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: A very intense low near Long Island 03-01-1914 was near 950. NYC's lowest SLP. All very high impact situations. ... and also full moon, tidal surge potential. Interesting that you brought this system up. Way back in 1914, one of the clubs at Fishers Island had its clubhouse built right over South Beach. The March '14 nor'easter washed it completely away and the club's officers prudently decided to rebuild it well away from the water (although the '38 hurricane did a number on that structure as well). Anyway, every so often to this day, the old clubhouse stone footers get exposed after a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 02:23 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:23 AM 35 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: GEFS actually a little worse than 12z.... This is going to sound rather bunnable , but just bear with me for a moment… the operational version has been wildly oscillating between a complete ghost, to these upper tier manic solutions and that’s supposed to be the higher resolution souped up variant of the ensemble system. in other words more stable. firstly, considering we’re beyond 200 hours there is no real responsibility to accuracy here to be fair. still, the wild variability of the operational version does not lend very much confidence that the ensemble system knows what the fuck is going on out there either frankly that goes for all models at present time.. the only confidence inspiring aspect as far as i’m concerned is still the intense signal beacon that’s been looming between the eighth and the 12th of the month for so long - confident if at least a favorable time in that sense. it’s just that when you pop off at giant solution like this in the middle of a strong probability region of time … should at least take notice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Wednesday at 02:26 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:26 AM Got some thoughts that have been rattling around my head all evening...To start, I just want to say that I am happy to be here in the New England crew. Hurricane Floyd got me interested in weather (due to losing power for a few nights despite the NC landfall, the dynamics involved kick started my love interest in the hobby), and I have learned a lot from folks far more seasoned than I could ever hope to be both down the in SE and up here. I always was a cold weather enthusiast, but never in my wildest dreams did I think I would be living full time in a place that experiences actual seasons and "true cold".Through all the bickering, whining, and can kicking, I am rather content.Would I love to experience an old fashioned "Winter of Yore"? Oh yes, absolutely, but even this current climo far beats the raging dews and warm winters I had growing up. All in all, this is my home, and I am a proud Vermonter (go Catamounts!), and I wouldn't change it for the world. Just me, my wife, and our cat as we watch for the rare SVR, chance the fantasy KU, or even just watch height anomalies in the summer as we all get out and enjoy the beach/mountains/lakes or whatever it is you do. In the end, it doesn't matter if it is raining/snowing/windy to kingdom come, what matters is making memories with our family and loved ones. As the calendar flips to the start of a New Year, let it start on a positive note: We all made it to another year, Benchmark is welcoming a new child into the world, most of us just had a White Christmas, and whatever it is in your lives that makes you happy reflect on those things instead of the inconsistency of the latest model suite and remember...Whether it be skiing in Ludlow, eating lobster rolls in Maine, hiking in New Hampshire, catching a Red Sox game and singing Sweet Caroline on a crisp autumn evening, heading to the coast in Connecticut, or taking a trip to the Outer Cape and Rhode Island...We are all New Englanders.Happy New Year everyone, and may it be a blessed one.-PrismSent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted Wednesday at 02:28 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:28 AM He's doing at again!!! What a click bait jack off. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:29 AM 24 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: 01-26-1978 (further west of course) 11-09-1913 (also west) _ Lake huron shipping disaster 10-12-1962 west coast _ large-scale forest blowdown A very intense low near Long Island 03-01-1914 was near 950. NYC's lowest SLP. Blizzard of 1888, 1899 (Feb) also in ballpark possibly? Extreme cold and blizzards of Jan 19-22 1857. Oct 1987 in Britain All very high impact situations. ... and also full moon, tidal surge potential. Thanks… Yeah, these are interesting result comparisons but this isn’t ultimately what I was discussing. I was focused on modeling history and what was the most wholesale mechanically powerful thing ever modeled? I completely forgot about the superstorm of 93 though - I’m not sure that got this deep though. Nor did it have heights cord out quite as deep as what this is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Wednesday at 02:31 AM Author Share Posted Wednesday at 02:31 AM Thanks… Yeah, these are interesting result comparisons but this isn’t ultimately what I was discussing. I was focused on modeling history and what was the most wholesale mechanically powerful thing ever modeled? I completely forgot about the superstorm of 93 though - I’m not sure that got this deep though. Nor did it have heights cord out quite as deep as what this isSuperstorm of 1993 got down to 960mb per a NWS article I found Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 02:33 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:33 AM On 12/30/2024 at 9:57 AM, weatherwiz said: Maybe some strong storms tomorrow evening into early overnight from New Jersey into Fairfield County Connecticut? BOOM. My girlfriend is on the FaceTime with a friend who lives in New Jersey in a highrise building and he has the camera facing outside and we saw a sick CG!!! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Wednesday at 02:34 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:34 AM 1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said: Superstorm of 1993 got down to 960mb per a NWS article I found Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk That's why having a storm that gets down to 952 is not happening! We all just had the conversation the other day about storms during the Winter almost never getting that low as far as the pressure goes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM Just now, weatherwiz said: BOOM. My girlfriend is on the FaceTime with a friend who lives in New Jersey in a highrise building and he has the camera facing outside and we saw a sick CG!!! Lol heard about thru the grapevine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:35 AM 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: BOOM. My girlfriend is on the FaceTime with a friend who lives in New Jersey in a highrise building and he has the camera facing outside and we saw a sick CG!!! What do you think about severe threat in southern CT 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:39 AM 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What do you think about severe threat in southern CT Maybe a nice little light show? Looks like the edge of the elevated instability is pushing towards the shoreline. Wonder if there could be some small hail in these Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Wednesday at 02:40 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:40 AM 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: What do you think about severe threat in southern CT Impressive look to the radar south of Long Island, see if that holds together. If so, should ring in the new year with some pretty good natural fireworks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Wednesday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:41 AM 1 minute ago, weatherwiz said: Maybe a nice little light show? Looks like the edge of the elevated instability is pushing towards the shoreline. Wonder if there could be some small hail in these Radarscope shows alot of hail reports to the SW of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted Wednesday at 02:41 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:41 AM Just now, Spanks45 said: Radarscope shows alot of hail reports to the SW of the area A friend of mine said his girlfriend in Philly had small hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Wednesday at 02:49 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:49 AM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cut Posted Wednesday at 02:54 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:54 AM Im right in the path of that near Bridgeport. Could be a fun ringing of the bell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Wednesday at 02:55 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 02:55 AM 5 minutes ago, dendrite said: Landphoon with an eye like feature near Reading? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Wednesday at 03:02 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:02 AM 21 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: A friend of mine said his girlfriend in Philly said he had a small weenie Could you emphasize? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Wednesday at 03:24 AM Share Posted Wednesday at 03:24 AM 34 minutes ago, dendrite said: Winter rolls on. Buckle up! 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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