Jester January

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

950s over the pope. Wild run

If we can’t fix DAW we’ll tear it down

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

congrats @powderfreak and @dendrite

Conrats Killington.

[Typhoon Tip]

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Ha, GFS.  952mb low.  What is the lowest pressure of any nor'easter that has come up the coast inside 40/70?

The one from Jan 18 was 950…but that was way outside the BM.  

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I guess the take away there is…there’s some power in that upper air set up. Good to see. 

I'll say

 

[metagraphica]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

yeah...a week without power in the middle of winter is not my cup of tea.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

I do. I don’t even care if it’s all rain. Pull it more inland and Nov 1950 me.

[cleetussnow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

I agree.  Thats not funny.  A lot of people along the eastern half with no power for weeks and a cold spell following. Its be ‘93 esque maybe worse

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

We want and we take!

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

Besides the 80-90 mph winds..why not? 

[CoastalWx]

Ray approves that run.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I'll say

 

That’s a dam black hole over the northeast..wow. 

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

get your affairs in order

This is where your doomsday prepping pays off.

[ROOSTA]

There's the extreme event, (here this run, gone the next) To bad it's out in LA-LA land.
Just shows how volatile the set-up is. Inside D5 and there would be a chance. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Weenies will complain about the wet solution, but I’d rather see that at this range than 492dm over Montreal.

Agree.

[Torch Tiger]

even if a tremendous cutter, that'd be fun

[tunafish]

8 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

yeah...a week without power in the middle of winter is not my cup of tea.

Yup, I'm all set with that as depicted.

[NittanyWx]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah the NAO itself is stochastic enough and variable enough in it's own episodes that it's hard to generalize. You can have a very strong block but if you don't have a very strong TPV pinned under it, then you aren't going to get as much suppression. So the block isn't the only variable in that case....the strength and size of the TPV plays a role. REplace a monster TPV with a much smaller TPV lobe pinned underneath, and now maybe the same block is perfect for Boston snowstorm instead of DC.

I do agree with @Typhoon Tip that we probably shouldn't take too much beyind D6-7 seriously at the moment (not that we ever should, but especially in this case) because that TPV/NAO coupling behavior is definitely notoriously bad on guidance. You have spokes of energy rotating around and other piece of energy diving down in the northern stream all interacting with it and it can change quickly.....hence why sometimes we'll see a monster bomb running due north near the BM on one run near 1/10 while the next set of runs might have nothing within 500 miles of that spot.

 

Correct, and the NAO is kid of derivative in many cases of preceding/upstream things occurring too.  Not saying it's useless by any stretch, just saying it gets entirely too much credit for 'X will happen' and that's largely due to the aughts.  We're aligned there.

 

Yeah I'm with you both. When you get these little rotating SW's and a mess of things going on above 60N, especially on things that haven't really been robustly sampled.  Type of setup where it's incredibly fickle.

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

even if a tremendous cutter, that'd be fun

Powderfreak would be buried for days

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

Certaintly not....need it a bit east.

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray approves that run.

I do TBH.....I would rather see that than the cut off hanging out with @raindancewx

I will go out on a limb and say the GEFS mean will be east of this depiction-

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I agree.  Thats not funny.  A lot of people along the eastern half with no power for weeks and a cold spell following. Its be ‘93 esque maybe worse

Most would welcome that. They just get power back from Thursdays big damage and lose it again for weeks 

[dendrite]

Let’s get Mammoth Mtn some ozone.

[moneypitmike]

The wind-blown rain would be incredible.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Hate the playa’s not the pattern! 

[Damage In Tolland]

Why for once can that exact solution not verify? Just once.. happen as modeled 

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is so correctable...phase it like 6 hours later-

[Kitz Craver]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this will probably not resonate with anyone but ... you don't want this.  trust me.  you don't. 

Ooooo, can you please give us a classic Tip novella on how exactly you think this would play out, ground truth. Joking aside, I’d love to hear your version of what would occur.

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm wondering if there's a historical catalogue of actual model runs ? 

 i suspect if there ever is/were, this is among the very most extraordinary, if not the goat, virtual prognostic from an operational/purposeful geophysical processing.   

closed sub-500 dm mid level heights by a couple of contours s, of nyc latitude, as a result of 90 deg neg tilting ?   really that's a scenario where any hyperbole is can't be dismissed as merely such. 

okay, i get it but responsible thinking is that most of civility can't heat their homes without electricity - either direct use, or a peripheral to thermal generation.  i suspect most in here have alternate options but ... mm maybe try for some empathy or at least acknowledgement as to how one purports themself.   just a suggestion -

it's about all i'm going to say on this.  the model run has limited chance for being realized as the wholesale synoptic manifold of parametrics, in time,  strains too much credibility.  if we take 1/2 of the ghosted solutions earlier, and average them against this one...that's likely closer to the reality - which would be a major if so..so no loss there.

[CoastalWx]

I’d take 70kts+ mixed down over getting  a foot easily.