Jester January

[ROOSTA]

The question of emotional attachment? Happens every year, every month, every storm threat. Like clockwork it's always the same posters who apply IMBY. Whether it's snow, tropical and or severe. Posts are the same instead of taking it as it comes. Nobody can control it, will never be a perfect forecast. Just have fun, interact civilly. Positive or negative what you see it what you get. The science has come a long way over just a decade but will never be perfected. 

I still like the look, and a change here or there (every model run) gives insight to the eventual outcome. 

 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said:

It's always been an amp game to me more than necessarily location when it comes to the NAO.  Its also less dominant of a feature than it's been hyped up to be over the years and especially in the late aughts as has already been noted here.

Yeah the NAO itself is stochastic enough and variable enough in it's own episodes that it's hard to generalize. You can have a very strong block but if you don't have a very strong TPV pinned under it, then you aren't going to get as much suppression. So the block isn't the only variable in that case....the strength and size of the TPV plays a role. REplace a monster TPV with a much smaller TPV lobe pinned underneath, and now maybe the same block is perfect for Boston snowstorm instead of DC.

I do agree with @Typhoon Tip that we probably shouldn't take too much beyind D6-7 seriously at the moment (not that we ever should, but especially in this case) because that TPV/NAO coupling behavior is definitely notoriously bad on guidance. You have spokes of energy rotating around and other piece of energy diving down in the northern stream all interacting with it and it can change quickly.....hence why sometimes we'll see a monster bomb running due north near the BM on one run near 1/10 while the next set of runs might have nothing within 500 miles of that spot.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big NAO blocks tend to be the most helpful during -PNA patterns. Much of the epic stretch in Feb 1969 consisted of that type of pattern and the first half of January 2011 did as well with that huge block.

During +PNA, I'd rather have the NAO block centered toward Iceland or at least central Greenland....we saw sort of an Iceland block in the Feb 2003 pattern during that +PNA.

Feb 1978 did have a west-based block and +PNA, but orientation was slightly different so that the PV wasn't sitting on top of our head.

 

My biggest fear is a January 1985 repeat which I have mentioned a few times. We lost probably 2-3 legit threats that month due to overpowering NAO block with PV too close to us in SE Canada.

right

not attempting to condemn naos    hahaha.    no, i mean what you're saying - yeah one has to nuance the field and it's highly circumstantial.  

if a nuetral pna is in play you don't want -2 sd nao over the western limb, or your bomb axis is va beach. 

if you got a +pna, lift the nao in latitude so you have some up-under spacing.  

there's millions of these ... snow flakes of these different relative strengths between competing mass fields.  

i've often thought there's like intervals in music with the nao.   ( oh jesus - )   ... the 3rd and 5th tones of the octave are harmonic.  so, you want a '3' pna and a '5' nao, say - metaphorically speaking.

but you can't have a 3 pna and a diminished 7 or it sounds like the charts smell:  shitty

[weathafella]

Primshine stopped posting.  That’s how much of a dearth of action there is.

[Torch Tiger]

where is Brooklyn wx with some weeklies?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

You wonder how bad it is has to get before it gets better. You think rock bottom was hit until you hit something lower…then you see an epic pattern that makes the best Brooklyn animations and but quickly realize he was sent down my mother nature to simply perform another cosmic COC tease dancing on your lifeless body.  

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

where is Brooklyn wx with some weeklies?

I was thinking the same thing lol

[bristolri_wx]

2 hours ago, weatherwiz said:

can we ban posting snow maps beyond 5 days out???

 

[UnitedWx]

37 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 my official position on the 6/7th is 'guarded pessimism' 

Guarded pessimism... is that the party cloudy version of "nauseously optimistic" I think I've heard that somewhere recently 

[78Blizzard]

Euro op is steadfast in continuing to show cold and dry after tomorrow for the next 2 weeks.  Even the GFS agrees now.

[Kitz Craver]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You wonder how bad it is has to get before it gets better. You think rock bottom was hit until you hit something lower…then you see an epic pattern that makes the best Brooklyn animations and but quickly realize he was sent down my mother nature to simply perform another cosmic COC tease dancing on your lifeless body.  

H5 voodoo for years

[weathafella]

NYE is when uncle is at his drunkest.  Look for a big solution on crazy uncle tonight but I implore you-don’t do it!

[mahk_webstah]

Nothing left to do but laugh

[Hoth]

27 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

You wonder how bad it is has to get before it gets better. You think rock bottom was hit until you hit something lower…then you see an epic pattern that makes the best Brooklyn animations and but quickly realize he was sent down my mother nature to simply perform another cosmic COC tease dancing on your lifeless body.  

Expect nothing, and if you get a flurry you'll be pleasantly surprised.

[Cyclone-68]

I want Wiz to start his annual “How many days till May” thread 

[ROOSTA]

It's really not that bad!
Repeat after me...
It's really not that bad!

18z will be out soon and then there's always the 00z run. So on and so forth...

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big NAO blocks tend to be the most helpful during -PNA patterns. Much of the epic stretch in Feb 1969 consisted of that type of pattern and the first half of January 2011 did as well with that huge block.

During +PNA, I'd rather have the NAO block centered toward Iceland or at least central Greenland....we saw sort of an Iceland block in the Feb 2003 pattern during that +PNA.

Feb 1978 did have a west-based block and +PNA, but orientation was slightly different so that the PV wasn't sitting on top of our head.

 

My biggest fear is a January 1985 repeat which I have mentioned a few times. We lost probably 2-3 legit threats that month due to overpowering NAO block with PV too close to us in SE Canada.

How many times have we seen -NAO/RNA fail recently? CC is making that paradigm less auspicious. 

[weathafella]

In one of my all time winters 1960-61, after the great blizzard of 12/11-12 it was milder with rain and mixed events.  Around 1/5 there was a system that trended colder resulting in about 5 inches imby.  Right after that it got cold.  It was cold and dry for weeks until the JFK inaugural storm in 1961. That was bookended by another great storm-bigger and meatier 2/4/61. That was the end of the cold pattern but we had 7 weeks of fun.  Hopefully cold and dry yields to cold and stormy.

[Go Kart Mozart]

I love Baja lows.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How many times have we seen -NAO/RNA fail recently? CC is making that paradigm less auspicious. 

Well both times it failed we were snowing in the Rose Bowl so it’s kind of a limited example there. Your more classic RNA with the trough into WA/OR and maybe N CA would typically do very well with that pattern. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well both times it failed we were snowing in the Rose Bowl so it’s kind of a limited example there. Your more classic RNA with the trough into WA/OR and maybe N CA would typically do very well with that pattern. 

True, but there has undoubtedly been more of a tendency for the se ridge to adjoin with the negative NAO over thr past 15 years or so, which isn't favorable. 

[weathafella]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but there has undoubtedly been more of a tendency for the se ridge to adjoin with the negative NAO, which isn't favorable. 

I don’t think 2 years is enough evidence of a tendency.  I mean there may be but we haven’t shown that to be the case yet scientifically.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, weathafella said:

I don’t think 2 years is enough evidence of a tendency.  I mean there may be but we haven’t shown that to be the case yet scientifically.

I just said it isn't just two years. I've seen the composites. 

[Allsnow]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Does anyone need to be convinced that ambient heights are greater now than in the past? Obviously that is going to make adjoining ridges more common.

I do agree that extreme cases like 2022 will exaggerate that...

[weatherwiz]

Wasn't a bad day today. Went outside a bit on a quick lunch before the Bruins game to pick up dog poop now that the grass is fully visibile again...boy was there alot of dog poopy. I looked like Santa carrying his giant sack of gifts

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't anyone need to be convinced that ambient heights are greater now than in the past? Obliviously that is going to make adjoining ridges more common.

Why would it make it more common for ridge linkage? You’d need the heights in the mid-latitude band to be rising faster than the heights in the arctic to make that true….otherwise you just get the same exact pattern as 1996 except everything is just up 10 or 20dm if the heights are rising together in similar magnitude. We’ve had excellent -PNA/-NAO patterns relatively recently (portions of 2016-17 come to mind and even the massive Mar 2018 snowgasm was -PNA/-NAO) 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Doesn't anyone need to be convinced that ambient heights are greater now than in the past? Obviously that is going to make adjoining ridges more common.

Not sure what you’re getting at here. Height anomalies are higher, but that doesn’t necessarily mean more ridging. Just think of it as having December H5 climo during January. 

[weatherwiz]

Thursday is going to rip. I also don't recall many times seeing the NAM outmix the GFS. Wonder if we eventually see wind advisories converted to high wind warnings.

BDL

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Thursday is going to rip. I also don't recall many times seeing the NAM outmix the GFS. Wonder if we eventually see wind advisories converted to high wind warnings.

BDL

Bufkit roars with 60+ possible