Jester January

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The 6th has a better chance than the 11th with Arctic air firmly in place then. I’d implore folks to not give up 

It needs to be near BWI-RIC by 4 days out, its gonna be hard to get it back from anywhere south of RIC but I think if BWI is the bullseye at 96 unless this is the 1 in 10 case where confluence is not being overdone at Day 4 its coming north.  I still don't know if it can come back enough those to save most of this subforum.  Maybe NYC and SE parts of SNE

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I wouldn't totally give up where you are....

Just expecting and planning on a light - moderate event . Likely CNE south 

[cleetussnow]

I can see chucking the 6th. Not our storm.  The 11th or thereabouts - no sense chucking this early.  Its not even within 240.  There may be another wave behind it as well.  We’ll have to see but this time frame should still hold interest.  

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The ceiling on 1/6 for me is more frustration while seeing photos of Steve's dogs in the snow....pardon my lack of enthusiasm.  

Yeah I hear that. The precision porkings are symbolic of innately flawed systems and they’ve been relentless.

[dryslot]

Maybe we can get 2' of frost in the ground before February's thaw.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Maybe we can get 2' of frost in the ground before February's thaw.

It would help knock back the tick population…

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS having so much qpf into NNE is a solid signal too 

[40/70 Benchmark]

-NAO blows here....thank god we get to smoke cirrus on the 6th instead of enduring a cutter before a blizzard.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS having so much qpf into NNE is a solid signal too 

Probably a few outliers skewing the mean.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

EPS having so much qpf into NNE is a solid signal too 

12z EPS says that signal is gone..   but the wind could be fun this week 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-NAO blows here....thanks god we get to smoke cirrus on the 6th instead of enduring a cutter before a blizzard.

I view the NAO a lot like EMLs during the warm season. They don’t guarantee anything and are often useless, but in the right place at the right time they can make a mundane setup explosive. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably a few outliers skewing the mean.

Might be some showing that funky evolution where somehow the surface low sorta survives the meat grinder enough to exit into the Atlantic and then redevelop and throw moisture back.  We've seen Op solutions with that the last 2 days. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably a few outliers skewing the mean.

And that was 00z....12z barely gets 0.1" to Kevin's backyard. 00z got it almost to Canadian border. So those bigger northward members have probably almost all been eliminated.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I will have canceled winter by then, but mentally it’d be hard for me to root for spring before March 1. 

if what you're saying there is honest?   ... i betcha your susceptible tho -

when i asked, '... going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early? '  i was thinking something more along the lines of an attribute ass-kicker cc event at a seasonal level.   like the first shot across the bow for 2050's future. where we get one now...then another in 8 seasons...then another in 6 seasons after that, 4 seasons after that... then they're happening ever 3rd season...then boom. we don't essentially have feb and mar anymore. 

those that are winter coveters and/or can't control being offended by this mere jest, are going to get incensed here - even though i've already declared this as not intending to inflame ... - but, if the globe is warming ... at some point, the globe has to actually get warm      that's pretty much unsalable logic - it's just a matter of ironing out when.  but that sort of creeping in return rate increasing frequency model above is the principle of the thing - not saying that's it.  but it's like that.  you lose a bit first, until you realize at some point out in time that you've lost altogether. 

or gain in geological history, if/when going the other way...  but this ain't that. 

where the hell am i going with this... oh, so pretend this is the first one...   remember back in 2016 - 2019 there were some really weird early season shock and awe heat bursts in february and march's?  what if not one, but three happened over a 40 day period, with general base line thawed earth in between.  march 2012 was a staggering +10 ... talking +12 to even +15.  this is the way we're likely to ever get our "43C heat wave" - i've come to find ( another digression ...) that we seem to hurt our winters more than make our summers hotter at our particular depot of earth's surface.  it's just circumstantially permanent for where we are in relation to the continent and ocean..   we end up too souped up with dps to top end the thermometer like they can other places of similar latitude around the nh.  it's like being born with plumbosis genes and trying to win a beauty contest - not likely...

anyway, i bet if we start getting that done, you'd be buy-able to just have at it.

[FRWEATHA]

Is it possible that blocking is so strong we get something retrograding? 

[Spanks45]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Glad I learned my lesson and still went below average snowfall on the season, despite the ostensibly "favorable" January Outlook.

Sadly, what ever it is, CC? Any favorable looks end up being straight up cold/dry or the infamous cold/dry, warm/wet routine...We don't even get the storm as the block relaxes anymore....

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, FRWEATHA said:

Is it possible that blocking is so strong we get something retrograding? 

Yeah-marine North Atlantic puke.

[Kitz Craver]

We’re rolling snake eyes. I can FN feel it. Trends FN blow.

[WxWatcher007]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

if what you're saying there is honest?   ... i betcha your susceptible tho -

when i asked, '... going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early? '  i was thinking something more along the lines of an attribute ass-kicker cc event at a seasonal level.   like the first ...shot across the bow for 2050, where we get one now...then another in 8 seasons...then another in 6 seasons after that, 4 seasons after that... then they're happening ever 3rd season...then boom. we don't essentially have feb and mar anymore. 

those that are winter coveters and/or can't control being offended by this mere jest, are going to get incensed here - even though i've already declared this as not intending to inflame ... - but, if the globe is warming ... at some point, the globe has to actually get warm      i'm pretty much that's unsalable logic - it's just a matter of ironing out when.  but that sort of creeping in return rate increasing frequency model above is the principle of the thing - not saying that's it.  but it's like that.  you lose a bit first, until you realize at some point out in time that you've lost altogether. 

or gain in geological history, if/when going the other way...  but this ain't that. 

where the hell am i going with this... oh, so pretend this is the first one...   remember back in 2016 - 2019 there were some really weird early season shock and awe heat bursts in february and march's?  what if not one, but three happened over a 40 day period, with general base line thawed earth in between.  march 2012 was a staggering +10 ... talking +12 to even +15.  this is the way we're likely to ever get our "43C heat wave" - i've come to find ( another digression ...) that we seem to hurt our winters more than make our summers hotter at our particular depot of earth's surface.  it's just circumstantially permanent for where we are in relation to the continent and ocean..   we end up too souped up with dps to top end the thermometer like they can other places of similar latitude around the nh.  it's like being born with plumbosis genes and trying to win a beauty contest - not likely...

anyway, i bet if we start getting that done, you'd be buy-able to just have at it.

I think it’d probably depend. I kind of bake in now that winters will be shorter and more crappy than nice so it’s not a huge leap that in an awful season I capitulate. 

I’d probably need another few years of futility to be open to an early February flip though. At this time March is still my psychological barrier for cold to warm(er) season. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Dec through the New Years retrograde storm was actually a solid period....really shat the bed after that though west of you we did get the epic WINDEX event plus the MLK storm that caused Kevin to have a top 3 meltdown in the history of the forum.

My whining about 09-10 must be in the top 10. 
Winter basically ended at 1 AM on Jan 3 when the 21° with SN at 10 PM became 34° and RA.  Just as Cool Spruce had predicted.  We had advisory-level snow on the MLK weekend plus the nice WINDEX on the 28th, but that was IT for wintry precip.  I don't consider the 4:1 sludge (thanks, Will, for that term) in late Feb worthy of being called snow.

[Typhoon Tip]

19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-NAO blows here....thank god we get to smoke cirrus on the 6th instead of enduring a cutter before a blizzard.

not to pick a sensy moment to jiggle the chigger but ... done been complaining about that and the nao's misconception/false application, since it started being wrongly used to mark-up social media reputations back in the early 2000s. 

[Snowcrazed71]

Man, have things took a turn. I'm sure we'll see the models change up again. However, if things don't pan out through the 15th, I feel like I may have lost my excitement ( there's so many downers on here. It's starting to rub off lol ). I'm usually the one saying stay positive, but even if nothing happens by 1/15, we still have the end of the month and all the February and even early March. But it's not worth getting flipped out over. Might be time to take a break. I'm going to try not to look at anything until I'm back from Florida on Monday ( try is the operative word ).

[metagraphica]

27 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It would help knock back the tick population…

Took a tick off the doggo yesterday. Any temp above 50 and they pop right back out again.  Even the 3ish days in a row we had below 30 degrees wasn't enough to kill 'em.

[tamarack]

29 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It would help knock back the tick population…

Maybe the cold weekend will turn our few inches of white into marble, forcing all the little rodent owl and coyote food to skitter across the surface.

[Typhoon Tip]

anyway ... despite my commiserating over the last hour, that's all it is.  just empathizing with how i'm sure the jaded spirits cry out in pain.  haha.

in the more here and now terms, we're talking about injecting a wave space into an arena that is ostensibly controlled by an nao that ( whoops) hasn't even materialized yet - neither has.  the nao, or the former wave inject. 

to reiterate, nao's are notoriously handled badly beyond d6 or 7 - that's in general... they're modulating details such as how much specific suppression ( or not ...), is all but idiosyncratic and cannot really be assessed at this range using anything other than the quantum computing cores that are ... 10 years or something from coming online.  those will eventually be the next major step forward in deterministic meteorology - beyond which ... provided tech keeps evolving and humanity is still around, the "weather modification grid" finaly comes on line and all of this is rendered completely futile to even engage in the pastime - 

heh.   my official position on the 6/7th is 'guarded pessimism' - which means i lean less, but am far from sold that the nao doesn't back stab the 7 day forecast,  ...like that's never happened before

[Patrick-02540]

While we're at it, there's also this:

"The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a below normal snowfall for the northern East Coast, and an above normal snowfall for southern areas during the 2024/2025 winter season."  

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

While we're at it, there's also this:

"The Old Farmer's Almanac predicts a below normal snowfall for the northern East Coast, and an above normal snowfall for southern areas during the 2024/2025 winter season."  

wow so we actually have a decent shot to see above-average snow then.

May February is Dreambruary for us

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

not to pick a sensy moment to jiggle the chigger but ... done been complaining about that and the nao's misconception/false application, since it started being wrongly used to mark-up social media reputations back in the early 2000s. 

Big NAO blocks tend to be the most helpful during -PNA patterns. Much of the epic stretch in Feb 1969 consisted of that type of pattern and the first half of January 2011 did as well with that huge block.

During +PNA, I'd rather have the NAO block centered toward Iceland or at least central Greenland....we saw sort of an Iceland block in the Feb 2003 pattern during that +PNA.

Feb 1978 did have a west-based block and +PNA, but orientation was slightly different so that the PV wasn't sitting on top of our head.

 

My biggest fear is a January 1985 repeat which I have mentioned a few times. We lost probably 2-3 legit threats that month due to overpowering NAO block with PV too close to us in SE Canada.

[mahk_webstah]

51 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The 6th has a better chance than the 11th with Arctic air firmly in place then. I’d implore folks to not give up 

Replace “folks” with “myself” 

[NittanyWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big NAO blocks tend to be the most helpful during -PNA patterns. Much of the epic stretch in Feb 1969 consisted of that type of pattern and the first half of January 2011 did as well with that huge block.

During +PNA, I'd rather have the NAO block centered toward Iceland or at least central Greenland....we saw sort of an Iceland block in the Feb 2003 pattern during that +PNA.

Feb 1978 did have a west-based block and +PNA, but orientation was slightly different so that the PV wasn't sitting on top of our head.

 

My biggest fear is a January 1985 repeat which I have mentioned a few times. We lost probably 2-3 legit threats that month due to overpowering NAO block with PV too close to us in SE Canada.

It's always been an amp game to me more than necessarily location when it comes to the NAO.  Its also less dominant of a feature than it's been hyped up to be over the years and especially in the late aughts as has already been noted here.