Jester January

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These last 3 seasons make 09-10 feeling like 14-15.

Dec through the New Years retrograde storm was actually a solid period....really shat the bed after that though west of you we did get the epic WINDEX event plus the MLK storm that caused Kevin to have a top 3 meltdown in the history of the forum.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

These last 3 seasons make 09-10 feeling like 14-15.

Nah, I'd take them all over that year.

[FXWX]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We want that PV west. Having it sit over us would basically be 10-14 days of cold/dry. Epic pond skating.

It's pretty simple right now... Can't have the PV sitting where the majority of the models (model consensus) have it and expect anything major to get in here.  I always thumb through the Kocin book to look for any decent similar events; using the 72 hr prior to the event maps.  Using the Friday into Saturday progged 500 mb period as my 48-72 hr starting point, can't find a good match; a couple of teasers but they all have the PV considerably further west or north at the 72 hr from onset period.  Will need to see a decent west or north trend of the PV develop soon.  That doesn't mean we can't have some light accumulations if confluence decreases a bit.

[MJO812]

We need the blocking to ease up. Euro further south.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, FXWX said:

It's pretty simple right now... Can't have the PV sitting where the majority of the models (model consensus) have it and expect anything major to get in here.  I always thumb through the Kocin book to look for any decent similar events; using the 72 hr prior to the event maps.  Using the Friday into Saturday progged 500 mb period as my 48-72 hr starting point, can't find a good match; a couple of teasers but they all have the PV considerably further west or north at the 72 hr from onset period.  Will need to see a decent west or north trend of the PV develop soon.  That doesn't mean we can't have some light accumulations if confluence decreases a bit.

Yeah I'm pretty much ready to punt 1/6-7 after today's 12z suite. It was decidedly the opposite trend we wanted to see. Status quo would've been manageable at this lead time, but trending worse with the confluence just about closes the door. We'd need to see a quick reversal which is unlikely. I might keep an eye out further southwest near NYC but even there is starting to look bleak.

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I'm pretty much ready to punt 1/6-7 after today's 12z suite. It was decidedly the opposite trend we wanted to see. Status quo would've been manageable at this lead time, but trending worse with the confluence just about closes the door. We'd need to see a quick reversal which is unlikely. I might keep an eye out further southwest near NYC but even there is starting to look bleak.

Congrats DCA  

That said, we’re not going to bat 1.000 in this pattern, we just have to hope for as many swings as possible and not whiff on the 50mph fastball in the center of the zone that is the 10-12th period.

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah, I'd take them all over that year.

Considering I’ve yet to have a 4” event since 2022, I’d hold that year  tight and kiss it all over. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Considering I’ve yet to have a 4” event since 2022, I’d hold that year  tight and kiss it all over. 

At least you cleaned up in 12/20/09. Retro storm was pretty good too around New Years.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Considering I’ve yet to have a 4” event since 2022, I’d hold that year  tight and kiss it all over. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

at first glance that 126 hr Euro isn't a bad initial look ... it's just that it's been that way on or about that interval, for days ... , but the ensuing frames only go in the direction it could about .. 1::6 cycles it seems

you have a strong-ish interloping s/stream wave approaching a favorable lat/lon nexus down there, with the western end of the spv poised to dig in...  there are reasons why it does on those non 1::6 runs (heh) - it's just that the reasons it doesn't on the other 6 outnumber.   

i got a serious question:  

suppose we get to the 14th of january and nothing's happened.  the models at that time are showing a complete la nina-esque butt bangin' pattern rollout scenario, suggesting no last half of winter.   would anyone be opposed to cc-attribution kicking in/adding to it and going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early?? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Say what you will about the progged mean long wave pattern for January, but I have one more shot at avoiding hitting the midway point of the month with 2" of seasonal snowfall....should that occur, the avenue to a good season is a pretty narrow, dirt road.

This is getting very tiresome.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

at first glance that 126 hr Euro isn't a bad initial look ... it's just that it's been that way on or about that interval, for days ... , but the ensuing frames only go in the direction it could about .. 1::6 cycles it seems

you have a strong-ish interloping s/stream wave approaching a favorable lat/lon nexus down there, with the western end of the spv poised to dig in...  there are reasons why it does on those non 1::6 runs (heh) but...i got a serious question:  

support we get to the 14th of january and nothing's happened.  the models at that time are showing a complete la nina-esque butt bangin' scenario to the last half of winter.   would anyone be opposed to cc-attribution kicking in/adding to it and going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early?? 

I will have canceled winter by then, but mentally it’d be hard for me to root for spring before March 1. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Say what you will about the progged mean long wave pattern for January, but I have one more shot at avoiding hitting the midway point of the month with 2" of seasonal snowfall....should that occur, the avenue to a good season is a pretty narrow, dirt road.

Frustrating to see every op run just bury every piece of energy into the gulf. It’s very noisy with the northern stream which doesn’t help. 

[Chrisrotary12]

41 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

So much confluence seeing AN surface temps showing up in eastern NH and Maine now. Without a pack in the region it’s definitely believable. 
 

I’ll happily take that over the severe cold and dry I was looking at a few days ago….

Rotten maritime air coming our way. Might as well hope for an early golf season. 

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We are getting an event Sun nite/ Monday . At least SNE and maybe CNE 

Better let your boy fish know. 

Interesting he also went to the Wolfie School of probabilities.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

at first glance that 126 hr Euro isn't a bad initial look ... it's just that it's been that way on or about that interval, for days ... , but the ensuing frames only go in the direction it could about .. 1::6 cycles it seems

you have a strong-ish interloping s/stream wave approaching a favorable lat/lon nexus down there, with the western end of the spv poised to dig in...  there are reasons why it does on those non 1::6 runs (heh) - it's just that the reasons it doesn't on the other 6 outnumber.   

i got a serious question:  

suppose we get to the 14th of january and nothing's happened.  the models at that time are showing a complete la nina-esque butt bangin' pattern rollout scenario, suggesting no last half of winter.   would anyone be opposed to cc-attribution kicking in/adding to it and going forsythias in early february with out door weather historically early?? 

No, I would not.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I will have canceled winter by then, but mentally it’d be hard for me to root for spring before March 1. 

Its become easy for me to root against the need to maintain the blog with a 4th child due Friday...it really needs to be worth my while.

[SouthCoastMA]

Fisher has a knack for twisting the knife. He definitely saw the 12z runs and got excited about making that post

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Frustrating to see every op run just bury every piece of energy into the gulf. It’s very noisy with the northern stream which doesn’t help. 

Glad I learned my lesson and still went below average snowfall on the season, despite the ostensibly "favorable" January Outlook.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Fisher has a knack for twisting the knife. He definitely saw the 12z runs and got excited about making that post

Yea, he loves him some warm and snowless.

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I would not.

me neither.   all do respect to the die -hards... not intending to inflame outrage merely for having a different druthers and perspective on matters than whomever you are.  

buuuut... i've made no mystery in the past over being an early check-out guy anyway.  years that such definitely.  years that even do this gently stroking the milk weed while leaving the sauce inside ?   double dong f* that!

i've always preferred the front ender winters.  which this is rapidly failing ... need to get a decent dawg to bite here pretty soon, and then we'll reassess any buy-back in ( talkin psycho babble on that specific aspect...). 

but typically by february and early March, when our biggest bombs in history have always occurred ( hahahaha) i'm pretty much zip on patience and just sessune   ( is that a word ? seriously - ) ... just assume or whatever that the seasonality will go to a place i know it will never go.

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO looks worse than the GFS for the 11th....really buries that SW energy.

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its become easy for me to root against the need to maintain the blog with a 4th child due Friday...it really needs to be worth my while.

I don’t think it’s all sorted out yet but I think tiresome is definitely the summation of the moment. Even in what should be an excellent pattern regime it seems like we’re fighting uphill to get anything meaningful. Years of fighting uphill no matter the upper level depiction. 

I do think we can get some confluence changes in the coming days with the 6/7 deal to bring a light event back on the table but again, fighting uphill.

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

At least you cleaned up in 12/20/09. Retro storm was pretty good too around New Years.

Yeah this area did well. Same with retro. I guess my mantra was that I can’t complain about two double digit storms. Well aware of what happened in the MA, but that was so rare that I wasn’t gonna lose sleep over it. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The 6th has a better chance than the 11th with Arctic air firmly in place then. I’d implore folks to not give up 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

EURO looks worse than the GFS for the 11th....really buries that SW energy.

That's something we're going to have to watch closely...confluence is going to be huge too but we can't lose track of what is happening within the Southwest with the energy and this seems to be an area where models can struggle drastically. Like I mentioned the other day...this could end up being something which gives us a big boost or totally screws us.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don’t think it’s all sorted out yet but I think tiresome is definitely the summation of the moment. Even in what should be an excellent pattern regime it seems like we’re fighting uphill to get anything meaningful. Years of fighting uphill no matter the upper level depiction. 

I do think we can get some confluence changes in the coming days with the 6/7 deal to bring a light event back on the table but again, fighting uphill.

The ceiling on 1/6 for me is more frustration while seeing photos of Steve's dogs in the snow....pardon my lack of enthusiasm.  

[SouthCoastMA]

On 12/29/2024 at 12:57 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

meh. some should take a break from model watching and come back on January 2nd. Save yourselves the pointless anguish

I shouldve taken my own advice

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The 6th has a better chance than the 11th with Arctic air firmly in place then. I’d implore folks to not give up 

I wouldn't totally give up where you are....

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

can we ban posting snow maps beyond 5 days out???

Or some posters?