Jester January

[ROOSTA]

Full Moon on the 13th. Just sayin; Timing looking about right. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

ICON scrapes the south coast and Cape for 1/6-7....better than 00z but obviously the rest of us need more than that. But good to see a little less confluence this run.

Yeah big shift NW. Lets see what the more varsity models do.

[Typhoon Tip]

for what it's worth the 12z icon has made a substantial move, in both depth/potency off the mid atl, but bumping nw too, wrt to jan 6.   it ultimately still misses, but that is precariously close!  if the next run were to incrementally do the same, it would like be bring an even to ct/ri/se-e ma..   'nj model low'

you can see some delicate albeit crucial difference in the total circulation components beween the nao domain, to n of lake superior ... that region is causing less suppression of confluence/def axis in this run... it's kind of fortuitous because it's exemplifying what scott and i were just musing

[Modfan2]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Last thing I want to see his Steve playing with his 30 dogs in 6" of snow and I'm watching dim sun through altostratus. 

Could be worse, Roosta could be posting pics of light snow in FL while your watch dim sun

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

ICON scrapes the south coast and Cape for 1/6-7....better than 00z but obviously the rest of us need more than that. But good to see a little less confluence this run.

i would have beaten you with this post timing if it were not for my being too verbose like Ray was sayin' 

lol

[Hazey]

The Icon came dangerously close to crushing me with the s/w on the the 4th(Destroys Nick in St. John's). Definitely some west adjustments there on that run. I think the 6/7 could be in play especially for SNE.  

[dendrite]

ICON has another s/w diving in right behind it. Let’s phase that piece in more.

[George001]

From what I’ve seen over the years of tracking guidance struggles the most in NS dominant La Niña patterns and blocking patterns. This is a very complicated setup with lots of moving parts. Nothing is locked in at this range, hell even 3 days out I wouldn’t be confident in a solution in this pattern. 

[ROOSTA]

Seems to me the whole evolution is slowing down. Delayed but not denied. Alot of moving pieces, blinded by the OP models. Holding out, hope for the 6th with some agreement to the E and G.   

[CoastalWx]

GFS will be doggie doo for the 6th. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be doggie doo for the 6th. 

Way more confluence this run...total opposite trend of the ICON

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd rather leave it where it is then see another shield of cirrus as CT to Jerry score again. 

[weatherwiz]

Perhaps a shitty evolution or scenario on the 6th opens up more room for something around the 10th 

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be doggie doo for the 6th. 

Carolina crusher 

[weathafella]

I think GFS laid an egg at 12z.  CMC seems like it may be ok. Talking the 1/6-7 period.

[ariof]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Carolina crusher 

Congrats BNA

[Damage In Tolland]

Less confluence is what they are picking up on . Happens every time 

[Allsnow]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Less confluence is what they are picking up on . Happens every time 

CMC will be further north 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Less confluence is what they are picking up on . Happens every time 

I thought we were going to stop posting made up stuff?

[weathafella]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Carolina crusher 

Not even.  Verbatim they get a few inches (which I guess is a crusher for that part of the world).

[George001]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS will be doggie doo for the 6th. 

Yeah confluence over NYC isn’t going to cut it. 

[ORH_wxman]

Canadian has an awesome shortwave which tries to push it north, but still too much confluence.

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Not even.  Verbatim they get a few inches (which I guess is a crusher for that part of the world.

Looks solid for that part of the country fwiw 

[ROOSTA]

Sometimes the obvious must be stated.
IT'S JUST (1) MODEL RUN.
So many opportunities to hang a hat on...

***********
Oh, forgot the age-old...
TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.

[kdxken]

I hope we still get the cold. I was saving this one for a cold snap. Big old locust. Last of the year...

 

[ORH_wxman]

Too bad we can't phase in one of the PV spokes to get this north....prob the only realistic way to overcome such a stout TPV pinned there.

[weathafella]

Just now, Allsnow said:

Looks solid for that part of the country fwiw 

I didn’t look closely but I dodmt bother with snow maps.  Although western NC does get their share from time to time.

[Typhoon Tip]

28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

ICON has another s/w diving in right behind it. Let’s phase that piece in more.

saw that ... in fact, it occurred to me that this run probably already would have come wholesale nw enough to strike but that feature is actually imposing a bit/neg interfering

[Typhoon Tip]

folks ... don't get confused.   we're not discussing 'getting an event' out of 1/6 ... we're strictly identifying limitations ( actually..) and therein, how longs shots might overcome. 

there's difference there

[Damage In Tolland]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I thought we were going to stop posting made up stuff?

Less each run. This one’s easy to forecast