Jester January

[Typhoon Tip]

i want to start an extended lead -based thread for the 8/9/10 ..11

but i'm not sure we should drop the 6/7th and that one's going to be tricky as i was just mentioning to Will

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

See my post of Jan 96. 

#1 of all time for me. 28” in CNJ. Duration and how cold it was will never be surpassed imo. Not sure I will ever get a 30”er…

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

i want to start an extended lead -based thread for the 8/9/10 ..11

 

Do it!

[Go Kart Mozart]

I only get euro to 144hrs, but man, it looks close to something good on the 6th.  Just a bit more separation between the Cape Race low and the James Bay low would do the trick.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

I only get euro to 144hrs, but man, it looks close to something good on the 6th.  Just a bit more separation between the Cape Race low and the James Bay low would do the trick.

I see what you mean, but I think it still gets shunted south. 

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

#1 of all time for me. 28” in CNJ. Duration and how cold it was will never be surpassed imo. Not sure I will ever get a 30”er…

It was good here too. You did better in Jersey as far as accumulation than we did here in Jan 96, but it was a big one. Dam I wished you got to see Feb 13, that was a monster, and in a class all it’s own, and especially for WOR.  Add another 6 plus on to that 28” amount, and big wind too.  

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS was using that follow up wave to push precip into SNE for 1/6 (really 1/7). 
 

Euro suite still shows a more consolidated shortwave for that threat but differing on the amount of confluence in the ensemble members. 

That's really kind of the crux of all this, well the 6th system is how aggressive the confluence ends up being 

[CoastalWx]

Jan 96 finally broke the 2' cherry for me. Great storm south of BOS.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I see what you mean, but I think it still gets shunted south. 

i've seen deformation axis so intense that milky sun goes to virga plume sky, to heavy snow in just 10 or so miles, extending along a line that's 400 mile long. 

on modeling, the less savvy observer tends to be too distracted by the storm on the map itself, and isn't paying enough attention. so it seems like it's just going to rotate on up and be fun

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

It was good here too. You did better in Jersey as far as accumulation than we did here in Jan 96, but it was a big one. Dam I wished you got to see Feb 13, that was a monster, and in a class all it’s own, and especially for WOR.  Add another 6 plus on to that 28” amount, and big wind too.  

I tracked it on models and radar and silently observed the posts in here. It was painful but lived vicariously through it. Still, it was an overnight quick hitter. Obviously wouldn’t complain but something about long duration cold storms that do it for me.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

i've seen deformation axis so intense that milky sun goes to virga plume sky, to heavy snow in just 10 or so miles, extending along a line that's 400 mile long. 

on modeling, the less savvy observer tends to be too distracted by the storm on the map itself, and isn't paying enough attention. so it seems like it's just going to rotate on up and be fun

Yep, wall of snow in a matter of miles. This has that look. 

[DavisStraight]

34 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

#1 of all time for me. 28” in CNJ. Duration and how cold it was will never be surpassed imo. Not sure I will ever get a 30”er…

Wasn't there a 30 incher where you are now before you moved there?

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep, wall of snow in a matter of miles. This has that look. 

right ..

i'd add, at this time though. just sayn'

you know, very early jan 1996 the then avn rolled in off the difax with that sort of cut off look on the n and nw out there at a 108 hrs - if memory serves, that's about as far as it went out in time; it was like the short range/higher res version of the mrf.   i loved those days of charts actually ...different discussion. 

i remember speaking to harvey about that, in the studio down at channel 7 ... my friend who had interned with him got me a chance to tour the studio.  i scored an intern op of my own ( i suspect- ) because it cited reasons why i thought the deformation axis was destined to tilt up enough to allow the cyclone to impact from nyc to bos - a discussion point that i'm sure would have been quite bun-worthy in this social media lol.   i was like on cloud nine ( pun at least serviceable there - ) for the encounter, getting to talk in my hypothetical short-comings with a theoretical giant.  but the visit went down super.  so toward the end he asked me what i was doing for my internship for that ensuing spring semester.   gulp.   that's how i got in - guess he liked my presentation.   

we all know what happened... the deformation axis shifted nw in the last 48 hours and brought the goodies to sne.     the -nao was antecedent to that period, too.  obviously, back then .. .the models were not going to be very good at nao handling, considering that we're here in the arrogant tech future and it's only incrementally better than totally sucking donkey dong if you ask me.  i mean, yar it's better. but's still not quite capable of nailing def axis' placements down to 10 miles ( so to speak ) at this range of 7 days.  so in either case.. .i feel the nao's real weight on suppression is probably negotiable until latter innings.

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I tracked it on models and radar and silently observed the posts in here. It was painful but lived vicariously through it. Still, it was an overnight quick hitter. Obviously wouldn’t complain but something about long duration cold storms that do it for me.

Here’s the thing Luke…it was a long duration storm for us Westies.  It started here by 7am Friday morning, snowed light to moderate at times all day, no lulls, picked up about 4-5” by sunset.   Then as the sun went down it ramped up and went absolutely bazurk all night, till about 4:30 am, when it finally tapered down.  So for WOR, it was a long duration event. That’s what made it so good. 

[Typhoon Tip]

i'm only posting this because no one else is brave enough to run out into the open while snarkers are waiting with their machine guns loaded with bun emojis ... i have no dignity left to protect -

but, the actual spread here is getting sort of lost in the fact that the -nao related trough node e of the continent is washing the medium.  if you loop this though at pivotal, you can see that there is a reasonable storm signal moving up s of long island toward this period of time, and then some of these individual members are fairly deep (resulting) and probably close enough to impact southern and eastern regions. it think the presence in the ensemble mean is getting obscured a little

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Here’s the thing Luke…it was a long duration storm for us Westies.  It started here by 7am Friday morning, snowed light to moderate at times all day, no lulls, picked up about 4-5” by sunset.   Then as the sun went down it ramped up and went absolutely bazurk all night, till about 4:30 am, when it finally tapered down.  So for WOR, it was a long duration event. That’s what made it so good. 

Was long duration here too. It started down in Brockton where I lived like 4pm or so as some OE, but ramped up as that initial fronto band pushed north. I was asked to stay at my Grandmother's place in Hyde Park (neighborhood of BOS on the SW side) to help shovel out. It also helped that she was a great cook and I would eat like a king. 

It was a classic wall of snow as Tip said. We ended up moving out of the snow heading north on rt 24, and not a flake at her house around 6pm. Her house was on a hill with a clear view of the Blue Hills ski slope. A short time later, I could not see the lights on the ski slope...maybe 4-5 miles as the crow flies...yet it took over an hour for that snow shield to advance. 

Anyways, it was banded, but snowed OCNL MDT to HVY through the aftn. Still lingered into Saturday evening. Back in Brockton we had just over 2' with an astounding snowpack after the 12" a few days earlier. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm only posting this because no one else is brave enough to run out into the open while snarkers are waiting with their machine guns loaded with bun emojis ... i have no dignity left to protect -

but, the actual spread here is getting sort of lost in the fact that the -nao related trough node e of the continent is washing the medium.  if you loop this though at pivotal, you can see that there is a reasonable storm signal moving up s of long island toward the this period of time, and then some of these individual members are fairly deep (resulting) and probably close enough to impact southern and eastern regions. it think the presence in the ensemble mean is getting obscured a little

 

I saw the same thing which is why I said we still have a heart beat. My worry is that the extreme E-W orientation of the band will mean the low center may really need to come north. For instance that 975 member or whatever it is east of central Jersey coast normally would be great. But with this having that sharp cutoff...it could easily only come up to a BDR-EWB type axis. Just hypothetically speaking.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm only posting this because no one else is brave enough to run out into the open while snarkers are waiting with their machine guns loaded with bun emojis ... i have no dignity left to protect -

but, the actual spread here is getting sort of lost in the fact that the -nao related trough node e of the continent is washing the medium.  if you loop this though at pivotal, you can see that there is a reasonable storm signal moving up s of long island toward this period of time, and then some of these individual members are fairly deep (resulting) and probably close enough to impact southern and eastern regions. it think the presence in the ensemble mean is getting obscured a little

Lol.... You're too funny!

I do like what I see. Don't worry about having no dignity, I think we can all say the same. You are only doing what some of us are afraid to do, hence some of my posts and backlash from my posts ( but yours are definitely more productive and make more sense than mine ) 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, Hoth said:

That winter was a brutal kick in the nards in general, but that storm in particular still hurts. And yet I'd take the 2010 season over the last several any day.

100% percent honest....give me last year over 2009-2010. The January 2024 event made my season.

 

[CoastalWx]

Last thing I want to see his Steve playing with his 30 dogs in 6" of snow and I'm watching dim sun through altostratus. 

[dendrite]

Yeah this definitely has that big northern edge fronto band look with that deformation assist from the PV lobe. 

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Last thing I want to see his Steve playing with his 30 dogs in 6" of snow and I'm watching dim sun through altostratus. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

#1 of all time for me. 28” in CNJ. Duration and how cold it was will never be surpassed imo. Not sure I will ever get a 30”er…

January 2005 in Cambridge was the only 30” I’ve seen.  It snowed for two days.  The city was buried and the big amounts were very localized to just inland by a few miles. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

it's because nothing's changed in a week ( really ... ) since i/we first posted about it all. 

this manic-like behavior of needing model run to cinema some dopamine jerk ... is unfortunately not a physical force in the atmosphere that will create movies capable of appealing to that sickness. 

yeah, now that's funny!

I don't agree...January 6 is less likely to come to fruition for at least the nothern half of New England than it was a week ago. This is the reality and the point, rather than the models' reluctance to appease the masses.

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't agree...January 6 is less likely to come to fruition for at least the nothern half of New England than it was a week ago. This is the reality and the point, rather than the models' reluctance to appease the masses.

i never said it was coming n   

just outlining what the guidance is showing over the last hour's worth of personal content...  i honestly have not really contributed anything about jan 6 in week's worth of this engagement.  unless you mean you don't agree with the consensus?   to which i'm not even sure what that is. 

 

[NoCORH4L]

2 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

Some areas have done fine in December, yours not so much unfortunately.  Winters in SNE are very variable…never really truly wire to wire with deep cold or snow.  Even the record breakers have had huge swings. Also, we are 9-10 days into Astro winter…I’d give it a few more weeks before you pass judgement on it.  It’s the same as saying summer sucks on 6/30, which also is premature. 

Ehh, not in December as a whole the past 15 years. This was the first December in awhile where snow machine trails were open in NH. 

If summer hasn't hit it's groove by June 30 in SNE....we are in trouble my friend.

[weatherwiz]

One thing too with the 8th-12th time frame is there is some major uncertainty with that energy in the southwest. I bet that is going to end up playing a huge role in whether we're looking at an interior Southeast/mid-Atlantic special or northern mid-Atlantic/Northeast ordeal. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i never said it was coming n   

just outlining what the guidance is showing over the last hour's worth of personal content...  i honestly have not really contributed anything about jan 6 in week's worth of this engagement.  unless you mean you don't agree with the consensus?   to which i'm not even sure what that is. 

 

Fair enough.

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

It was good here too. You did better in Jersey as far as accumulation than we did here in Jan 96, but it was a big one. Dam I wished you got to see Feb 13, that was a monster, and in a class all it’s own, and especially for WOR.  Add another 6 plus on to that 28” amount, and big wind too.  

I was living in Norwalk in 1996 and it was the largest snowfall in norwalk's history and in my lifetime with 27 inches.

[ORH_wxman]

ICON scrapes the south coast and Cape for 1/6-7....better than 00z but obviously the rest of us need more than that. But good to see a little less confluence this run.