Jester January

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

GGEM and 6z Euro both much farther north . It is happening 

When is the last time you looked at a model?

[Lava Rock]

6 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yep. Tough to call it a good winter when the days are getting longer and you haven't got shit. The older I get the more I'm a seasons in seasons guy. 

As far as usefulness, a winter of nickel and dimes and consistent cold from mid December to early Morch is much more useful than getting one or 2 HECS in early March. The kiddos can play pond hockey and sled, adults can x-country ski, Wachusett and Blue Hills can get good business.  The one complaint I hear in my circles is that all we get is "useless weather" in winter now. 

fully agree.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

When is the last time you looked at a model?

Every single day 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol…that’s funny cuz you’re still gonna lose another minute tomorrow morning on the SR. If of course that’s what you’re talking about? 

Nah it's a few seconds lighter. I noticed.    I'm a morning person.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Every single day 

Other than your Kathy Ireland Sports Illustrated. 

[CoastalWx]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS was using that follow up wave to push precip into SNE for 1/6 (really 1/7). 
 

Euro suite still shows a more consolidated shortwave for that threat but differing on the amount of confluence in the ensemble members. 

Euro wouldn't need a lot of work. That block is so strong though. It has a heartbeat, but I'm ready to charge the defibrillator. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yep. Tough to call it a good winter when the days are getting longer and you haven't got shit. The older I get the more I'm a seasons in seasons guy. 

As far as usefulness, a winter of nickel and dimes and consistent cold from mid December to early Morch is much more useful than getting one or 2 HECS in early March. The kiddos can play pond hockey and sled, adults can x-country ski, Wachusett and Blue Hills can get good business.  The one complaint I hear in my circles is that all we get is "useless weather" in winter now. 

Some areas have done fine in December, yours not so much unfortunately.  Winters in SNE are very variable…never really truly wire to wire with deep cold or snow.  Even the record breakers have had huge swings. Also, we are 9-10 days into Astro winter…I’d give it a few more weeks before you pass judgement on it.  It’s the same as saying summer sucks on 6/30, which also is premature. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Other than your Kathy Ireland Sports Illustrated. 

Careful now.. you’re dating yourself . At least use Pamela Anderson 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yep. Tough to call it a good winter when the days are getting longer and you haven't got shit. The older I get the more I'm a seasons in seasons guy. 

As far as usefulness, a winter of nickel and dimes and consistent cold from mid December to early Morch is much more useful than getting one or 2 HECS in early March. The kiddos can play pond hockey and sled, adults can x-country ski, Wachusett and Blue Hills can get good business.  The one complaint I hear in my circles is that all we get is "useless weather" in winter now. 

Winter in SNE is horrible if there is no snow. It's dark and damp otherwise. These past few winters have solidified that for me. I find it grueling. 

[Patrick-02540]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

She faking

No!  I saw her drop her nail file.

[DavisStraight]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro wouldn't need a lot of work. That block is so strong though. It has a heartbeat, but I'm ready to charge the defibrillator. 

Kevin has the innate ability to smell these things out, go with Kevin when he has conviction.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Careful now.. you’re dating yourself . At least use Pamela Anderson 

Kathy was solid. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, DavisStraight said:

Kevin has the innate ability to smell these things out, go with Kevin when he has conviction.

You quickly forget all the fails that are brushed under the rug.

[dendrite]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Careful now.. you’re dating yourself . At least use Pamela Anderson 

I’m just trying to talk to your level based on the music vids you post. Did you have that football phone too?

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, DavisStraight said:

Kevin has the innate ability to smell these things out, go with Kevin when he has conviction.

Thanks bruh . We good 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

I’m just trying to talk to your level based on the music vids you post. Did you have that football phone too?

What videos ? You mean like this ?

 

[dendrite]

Euro, GGEM, and ICON all have that one last little PV lobe piece swinging through the region which is just enough to send the system wide right like a Scott Norwood kick. I think we can work with the GFS evolution more up here, but it’s probably wrong. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What videos ? You mean like this ?

 

He dances like that scene on Airplane when the guy gets stabbed,

 

[moneypitmike]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Other than your Kathy Ireland Sports Illustrated. 

LOL--I was  typing the same joke about this Maxim subscription.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro, GGEM, and ICON all have that one last little PV lobe piece swinging through the region which is just enough to send the system wide right like a Scott Norwood kick. I think we can work with the GFS evolution more up here, but it’s probably wrong. 

I’m not liking what I’m seeing so far for the 6th, But still some time left in the period, Will need to see some changes in the next couple days, Maybe we get some of this out of the way or lift further north to give the 6th some room to come further north, Low confidence for now.

[Snowcrazed71]

37 minutes ago, NoCORH4L said:

Yep. Tough to call it a good winter when the days are getting longer and you haven't got shit. The older I get the more I'm a seasons in seasons guy. 

As far as usefulness, a winter of nickel and dimes and consistent cold from mid December to early Morch is much more useful than getting one or 2 HECS in early March. The kiddos can play pond hockey and sled, adults can x-country ski, Wachusett and Blue Hills can get good business.  The one complaint I hear in my circles is that all we get is "useless weather" in winter now. 

Yeah, I'd rather have a bunch of nickel and dimes consistently. I think 95/96 was like that.... Just an all out. Great winter. I think there was a biggie in there as well. 

With that said, I'm not going to be upset about getting a huge snowstorm either LOL. At this point and the way it's been the last several years, I think we're all looking for something.

[Snowcrazed71]

31 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Other than your Kathy Ireland Sports Illustrated. 

Yeah... As long as it has lips, chips and dips in it, he's a happy camper.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah, I'd rather have a bunch of nickel and dimes consistently. I think 95/96 was like that.... Just an all out. Great winter. I think there was a biggie in there as well. 

With that said, I'm not going to be upset about getting a huge snowstorm either LOL. At this point and the way it's been the last several years, I think we're all looking for something.

Jan 96 had the blizzard…a big one. Ironically, that was slated for a SE/Mid Atlantic hit, and was thought not able to get up in here.  But it trended as we got closer to go time into a hit up in to SNE as well. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z GFS was using that follow up wave to push precip into SNE for 1/6 (really 1/7). 
 

Euro suite still shows a more consolidated shortwave for that threat but differing on the amount of confluence in the ensemble members. 

definitely an inverted trough signal there

[Typhoon Tip]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If Tip can't engineer a verbose way for this to produce that no one will understand, then its over.

it's because nothing's changed in a week ( really ... ) since i/we first posted about it all. 

this manic-like behavior of needing model run to cinema some dopamine jerk ... is unfortunately not a physical force in the atmosphere that will create movies capable of appealing to that sickness. 

yeah, now that's funny!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

36 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Euro, GGEM, and ICON all have that one last little PV lobe piece swinging through the region which is just enough to send the system wide right like a Scott Norwood kick. I think we can work with the GFS evolution more up here, but it’s probably wrong. 

Scooter shit streaks are back…

[DavisStraight]

18 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Yeah, I'd rather have a bunch of nickel and dimes consistently. I think 95/96 was like that.... Just an all out. Great winter. I think there was a biggie in there as well. 

With that said, I'm not going to be upset about getting a huge snowstorm either LOL. At this point and the way it's been the last several years, I think we're all looking for something.

There was a 20+ in there but we had built a good pack with all the smaller storms.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter shit streaks are back…

The irony with those things is, they almost never help you. When you wish you had one, they are nowhere to be found.  When you wish they’d disappear, there’s shit all over the joint.  Wretched entities they are. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

There was a 20+ in there but we had built a good pack with all the smaller storms.

See my post of Jan 96. 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a lot of spread for 1/6 on EPS. The mean is still spreading QPF well up into NNE. Plenty of whiffs on the table too. But we’re still not all that coherent on this one yet. 

i don't have access to any algorithmic -based graphics like nws or anything ...  but imo from what i'm observing ( so taken fwiw ) the primary sensitivity for determining latitude wrt the 6/7th ( hell of a sentence here, haha) is the idiosyncratic handling of the nao.   

it's definitely a western limb variant for one.  but that's a elephant ass trying to sit down on a trampoline.   hell, it'd almost be better if the nao was a more neutral longitude/latitude node; i.e., not over the eastern canadian archipelago but more ne toward greenland.

i would just suggest for people ( failing to influence anyway in here, i know - ) not to wave that one off because runs are limiting impact for at least 3 maybe even 4 days on that one.   i mean you know this, but as i outlined yesterday, this is a 'sub-index scaled' system.  think of that scale as eddies in a river, where the actual index scaled ones are the river itself.  we're naturally more confident in where the river is going to be than we are where it's transporting it's intra mass field perturbations...