Jester January

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Well Idk man, go back to like 4 days ago and we were discussing two threats, one on the 5th and one around the 9th. Now we have pushed that to the 11th. I'm not saying the pattern won't produce but it seems like we may be waiting until the third week of the month. Which sucks because it seems like every winter the first 6 weeks of climo winter are just pissed away. Yeah yeah yeah, we lucked out with a couple of little over performing events but you know what I mean. The general tenor of the last like 10 years is to just waste 12/1-1/15 or so.

Did you grow up in the 80’s? Cuz it would almost never snow until well into January then. This is nothing new. It’s just returned again.  And also another thing…when you’re tracking potential threats that are 7-10-12 days out…the dates of those are gonna be in flux, and morph.  Some of you people just don’t get it.  Go live and die by every Op run. I don’t give a flying shit. Just Take your f’n whining to the cry baby thread. 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Did you grow up in the 80’s? Cuz it would almost never snow until well into January then. This is nothing new. It’s just returned again.  And also another thing…when you’re tracking potential threats that are 7-10-12 days out…the dates of those are gonna be in flux, and morph.  Some of you people just don’t get it.  Go live and die by every Op run. I don’t give a flying shit. Just Take your f’n whining to the cry baby thread. 

Why should I go to the cry baby thread? Nothing I said is untrue. And no, I didn't grow up in the 80s. We were getting nice solutions for the 5th-6th and 8th-9th on the models a few days ago and now they backed off...it's not like they only backed off for one cycle. The threat on the 6th is looking pretty close to dead even though it's still almost a week out and the main players giving a suppressed look for the follow up wave aren't going anywhere so I'm not sure why you expect the outcome to become more favorable as we get closer.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Why should I go to the cry baby thread? Nothing I said is untrue. And no, I didn't grow up in the 80s. We were getting nice solutions for the 5th-6th and 8th-9th on the models a few days ago and now they backed off...it's not like they only backed off for one cycle. The threat on the 6th is looking pretty close to dead even though it's still almost a week out and the main players giving a suppressed look for the follow up wave aren't going anywhere so I'm not sure why you expect the outcome to become more favorable as we get closer.

Because that’s what happened 4 times in December.  So you feel that at a week out, the solution is set? I’m sorry I don’t.  We didn’t have a solution for 12/20 the morning of.  But yet we know what a week out will bring now?  And after that(10-12 days out), you feel that is pretty much set too?   I’m not of that thinking.  
 

Sure, these can fail. They all can fail. I mean…there may never be another flake the rest of this winter, sitting here on 12/31.  But I don’t feel the can has been kicked yet at all…the pattern has yet to change/set in.  Give it a chance. If it’s 1/15-1/20, and we have nothing to show, I’ll be the first guy to say it blows, and it flopped. 
 

And I should have been more clear, I meant the whining thread for Ice1972. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

54 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

 

11th has always been my first big hope....folks can play the long range bargaining chip all they want, but 1/6 is garbage.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That EPS signal for the 11th is absolutely immense...like 20/25 members I saw are over 1' for much of SNE.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That EPS signal for the 11th is absolutely immense...like 20/25 members I saw are over 1' for much of SNE.

yeah, this is a pretty sick hemispheric signal as the block decays and PNA spikes around that time. definitely the larger scale threat 

[H2Otown_WX]

50 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

11th has always been my first big hope....folks can play the long range bargaining chip all they want, but 1/6 is garbage.

Alright let's do it, is the 11th a different threat from what was the 8th and 9th or did the timing just change?

[ORH_wxman]

Still a lot of spread for 1/6 on EPS. The mean is still spreading QPF well up into NNE. Plenty of whiffs on the table too. But we’re still not all that coherent on this one yet. 

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Still a lot of spread for 1/6 on EPS. The mean is still spreading QPF well up into NNE. Plenty of whiffs on the table too. But we’re still not all that coherent on this one yet. 

Seems like a 3-6/4-8” type thing Sunday night/ Monday for SNE.

[CoastalWx]

The 6th still has a heartbeat. Who the hell knows about the 11th this far out, but yeah a good hemispheric look…..just a lot of shit in the flow to figure out.

[moneypitmike]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

11th has always been my first big hope....folks can play the long range bargaining chip all they want, but 1/6 is garbage.

I have a work event that evening, so lock it in.  I'm really hoping we can get something on 10 or 12 and keep 11 free.

[Kitz Craver]

GFS continues to try and pop a coastal after slamming into the vortex. Almost an inverted trough look as the coastal tries to spawn but hangs back a bit of energy with the primary. Not that it matters really. Just verbatim OP

[Kitz Craver]

Talking about 1/6…

[CoastalWx]

Already some brightening in the ern horizon. It’s coming.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Already some brightening in the ern horizon. It’s coming.

I can already feel my dashboard getting warm.

[Damage In Tolland]

21 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Talking about 1/6…

She come he come 

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She come he come 

Dude, LOL

[Hoth]

5 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Feb 2010 still hurts. We were so close to something beyond even Jan 2011. Especially for the "Snowicane" being in Danbury for that I could smell the rain/snow line.

That winter was a brutal kick in the nards in general, but that storm in particular still hurts. And yet I'd take the 2010 season over the last several any day.

[UnitedWx]

28 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Dude, LOL

Oh come now live a little, it's new years eve! And, we actually do have at least a decent pattern to track right now. We watch

[Kitz Craver]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

Oh come now live a little, it's new years eve! And, we actually do have at least a decent pattern to track right now. We watch

I thought it was quite funny actually 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

I thought it was quite funny actually 

LOL me too. Seriously though, on my way in to work this A.M. the guy in front of me looks to already be celebrating. All over the road, lingering at stop signs... 25 mph... HATE to see it!!

[dendrite]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

She come he come 

She faking

[dendrite]

We’re going to need to start seeing some larger scale changes to get snow up here for 1/6. I know the ens have some hits, but that vort lobe is practically sitting over the coop on approach. Trend that up toward Labrador. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, dendrite said:

We’re going to need to start seeing some larger scale changes to get snow up here for 1/6. I know the ens have some hits, but that vort lobe is practically sitting over the coop on approach. Trend that up toward Labrador. 

I agree. Although better chance down here, but still dicey. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I agree. Although better chance down here, but still dicey. 

Snake eyes 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snake eyes 

Hopefully we don’t roll them

[ORH_wxman]

06z GFS was using that follow up wave to push precip into SNE for 1/6 (really 1/7). 
 

Euro suite still shows a more consolidated shortwave for that threat but differing on the amount of confluence in the ensemble members. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Already some brightening in the ern horizon. It’s coming.

Lol…that’s funny cuz you’re still gonna lose another minute tomorrow morning on the SR. If of course that’s what you’re talking about? 

[NoCORH4L]

5 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

 

Yep. Tough to call it a good winter when the days are getting longer and you haven't got shit. The older I get the more I'm a seasons in seasons guy. 

As far as usefulness, a winter of nickel and dimes and consistent cold from mid December to early Morch is much more useful than getting one or 2 HECS in early March. The kiddos can play pond hockey and sled, adults can x-country ski, Wachusett and Blue Hills can get good business.  The one complaint I hear in my circles is that all we get is "useless weather" in winter now. 

[Damage In Tolland]

GGEM and 6z Euro both much farther north . It is happening