Jester January

[George001]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Take my chances with the pattern.  

Yep. Ultimately what matters is it’s going to get cold. Small windows of opportunity sandwiched between warmth doesn’t do anything for me, because even if it does snow it will melt fast. If the Jan 6-7th wave moves north and gives us even a couple of inches, it’s possible we don’t see grass for the rest of January. Even if that doesn’t pan out, if the long range guidance is correct we will have a large window of opportunity like Jan 2011, Jan 2022, Feb 2013, Mar 2018 etc. Not every storm will hit, suppression is definitely a risk especially with the first threat but if you have 3-4 weeks of BN temps the probability you get hit with big snows is much higher. Sure, it could be cold and dry like December but I’ll roll the dice with this look. I’m probably going to get weenied for this, but I would rather roll the dice with this look than the one we got in Jan 2022 (and that was a VERY snowy month here). 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

It's coming.  I can feel it.

same here

[MJO812]

Ukie!

[George001]

Some will disagree and blame x y and z for why December wasn’t very snowy, but I would gladly roll the dice with the look we had. Just because it didn’t snow as much as I would have liked doesn’t mean there was something fundamentally wrong with the pattern that meant it COULDNT snow. It comes down to probability, the month of December will average slightly BN temp wise, and we had persistent western ridging. In my opinion that was plain old bad luck. Sure, it’s possible to have an extended run of bad luck, but claiming that just because we got unlucky in December or past years means it’s more likely something will go wrong again is bad logic. The probability this upcoming pattern will produce is what it is, what happened in the past doesn’t change that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

If Tip can't engineer a verbose way for this to produce that no one will understand, then its over.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If Tip can't engineer a verbose way for this to produce that no one will understand, then its over.

I've been waiting for his offering on today's runs.   

You obviously know we snow or with a mix of bad timing, no.  I feel like we get the MECS in the next few weeks.  That period around the 9th-14th feels ripe.

[DavisStraight]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Some will disagree and blame x y and z for why December wasn’t very snowy, but I would gladly roll the dice with the look we had. Just because it didn’t snow as much as I would have liked doesn’t mean there was something fundamentally wrong with the pattern that meant it COULDNT snow. It comes down to probability, the month of December will average slightly BN temp wise, and we had persistent western ridging. In my opinion that was plain old bad luck. Sure, it’s possible to have an extended run of bad luck, but claiming that just because we got unlucky in December or past years means it’s more likely something will go wrong again is bad logic. The probability this upcoming pattern will produce is what it is, what happened in the past doesn’t change that. 

I feel good about it with the cold source on our doorstep, with the cold there that's half the battle.

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I've been waiting for his offering on today's runs.   

You obviously know we snow or with a mix of bad timing, no.  I feel like we get the MECS in the next few weeks.  That period around the 9th-14th feels ripe.

I am thinking the following week

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

eh, it will be 01-01 0z soooo...

I don’t live in UK and neither do you.

[weathafella]

I have a hard time believing that with a trof over the eastern 3/4 of the USA we come away with no qpf. 

[ice1972]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I have a hard time believing that with a trof over the eastern 3/4 of the USA we come away with no qpf. 

until its on the ground and we can verify nothing can be believed.......winter is a joke these days.....

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I have a hard time believing that with a trof over the eastern 3/4 of the USA we come away with no qpf. 

Yes, Something is gonna hit.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

until its on the ground and we can verify nothing can be believed.......winter is a joke these days.....

Nobody is asking you to believe…just sit back and watch what happens. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

30 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I am thinking the following week

A continent wide record cold surge, if it happens, should end with a bang and that's only our mid-winter.  We good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro is a hit for the 11th.

[Roger Smith]

A lot can happen in 12-15 days and the pattern looks to me like it could easily tick towards a very big storm on the east coast around mid-January, without any large changes day to day in the model runs, just a gradual evolution that you can already see is quite feasible on GFS with that slow-moving low near some odd-looking clusters of very low heights, no particular reason why that cannot all phase into one well organized stacked low drifting east through PA and NJ and that can only end up as bombogenesis given the thermal gradients. 

And I know from research that there's a 2-3 times random chance of a big storm developing near the January full moon, it's not a perfect fit but it's sort of like saying, would Bruins win with Bobby Orr on the ice or in the dressing room? 

[ice1972]

29 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nobody is asking you to believe…just sit back and watch what happens. 

i'm sorry - wasn't fella just asking for belief?  my guess is by jan 31 I have a little pile of snow next to my side door i pushed out of the way with my foot......

[ice1972]

you gotta love wolfy though......ever the optimist.....i gave up on that a decade ago....

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

you gotta love wolfy though......ever the optimist.....i gave up on that a decade ago....

Nah…just why be a negative Nellie all the time? It changes nothing. And doesn’t factor in to making a storm that’s a week out any more or less probable.    
 

Believe it or not, I was you(and others) after we got shut out in 2010.  The next year I was so dam jaded, I just knew everything was gonna whiff, miss or basically fall apart.  I was told by the mods on Accuweather forums that I needed to provide solid scientific evidence as to why the storms were going to miss….or they would delete my posts.   And that was leading into January 2011.  Well we know how that ended up.  So all my concern and jaded ideas from the previous disaster that was 2010(and growing up in the 1980’s), didn’t mean crap.  So after that, I changed the way I looked at things.  

[H2Otown_WX]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Euro is a hit for the 11th.

 

[H2Otown_WX]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…just why be a negative Nellie all the time? It changes nothing. And doesn’t factor in to making a storm that’s a week out any more or less probable.    
 

Believe it or not, I was you(and others) after we got shut out in 2010.  The next year I was so dam jaded, I just knew everything was gonna whiff, miss or basically fall apart.  I was told by the mods on Accuweather forums that I needed to provide solid scientific evidence as to why the storms were going to miss….or they would delete my posts.   And that was leading into January 2011.  Well we know how that ended up.  So all my concern and jaded ideas from the previous disaster that was 2010(and growing up in the 1980’s), didn’t mean crap.  So after that, I changed the way I looked at things.  

Feb 2010 still hurts. We were so close to something beyond even Jan 2011. Especially for the "Snowicane" being in Danbury for that I could smell the rain/snow line.

[ice1972]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nah…just why be a negative Nellie all the time? It changes nothing. And doesn’t factor in to making a storm that’s a week out any more or less probable.    
 

Believe it or not, I was you(and others) after we got shut out in 2010.  The next year I was so dam jaded, I just knew everything was gonna whiff, miss or basically fall apart.  I was told by the mods on Accuweather forums that I needed to provide solid scientific evidence as to why the storms were going to miss….or they would delete my posts.   And that was leading into January 2011.  Well we know how that ended up.  So all my concern and jaded ideas from the previous disaster that was 2010(and growing up in the 1980’s), didn’t mean crap.  So after that, I changed the way I looked at things.  

dude.....we're 13 years after now....and none of those seasons have produced anywhere close to 2010-11......i get that december 2010 blew but that winter season made up for it hard......we haven't seen anything close since but its been a decade now.....how can you not be bummed....the pattern hasn't produced and until it does you gotta throw in the towel.........we'll see dude

[78Blizzard]

3 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

 

I know.  First it was the 5th, then the 9th, now the 11th.  Being 12 days out, we have plenty of time to kick it to the 14th. 

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

 

C’mon…that’s a little bit of stretch now.  The 11th or so time frame has been showing up for a while. As Scott said earlier today, every chance isn’t gonna workout. They never do, nor should we expect them to. 

[ice1972]

Just now, 78Blizzard said:

I know.  First it was the 5th, then the 9th, now the 11th.  Being 12 days out, we have plenty of time to kick it to the 14th. 

this is what happens.....it gets kicked to morch and then what are we even talking about.....lol.....i do love thunder - its so loud.....

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

dude.....we're 13 years after now....and none of those seasons have produced anywhere close to 2010-11......i get that december 2010 blew but that winter season made up for it hard......we haven't seen anything close since but its been a decade now.....how can you not be bummed....the pattern hasn't produced and until it does you gotta throw in the towel.........we'll see dude

WTF are you talking about? We’ve had a bunch of very good seasons since 2011.  I give up. Go on another rant and sound like a complete lunatic.  

[78Blizzard]

Just now, ice1972 said:

this is what happens.....it gets kicked to morch and then what are we even talking about.....lol.....i do love thunder - its so loud.....

It will finally arrive when the cold air mass is retreating, so    We've seen this movie a lot.

[H2Otown_WX]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

C’mon…that’s a little bit of stretch now.  The 11th or so time frame has been showing up for a while. As Scott said earlier today, every chance isn’t gonna workout. They never do, nor should we expect them to. 

Well Idk man, go back to like 4 days ago and we were discussing two threats, one on the 5th and one around the 9th. Now we have pushed that to the 11th. I'm not saying the pattern won't produce but it seems like we may be waiting until the third week of the month. Which sucks because it seems like every winter the first 6 weeks of climo winter are just pissed away. Yeah yeah yeah, we lucked out with a couple of little over performing events but you know what I mean. The general tenor of the last like 10 years is to just waste 12/1-1/15 or so.

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

this is what happens.....it gets kicked to morch and then what are we even talking about.....lol.....i do love thunder - its so loud.....

Vodka? 

[weathafella]

25 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

i'm sorry - wasn't fella just asking for belief?  my guess is by jan 31 I have a little pile of snow next to my side door i pushed out of the way with my foot......

I wasn't asking for belief other than not a drop for 2 weeks in January is a stretch when dominated by a trough.  Doesn't mean it can't happen though.