Jester January

[dendrite]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I actually don’t mind the second shortwave coming behind the other one on the 18z GFS because it allows amplification into the block somewhat. 
 

Im not sure it will look like that though given the euro is quite different with a much stronger consolidated shortwave. Either way, needing the confluence to relax a touch isn’t the worst spot to be at D7 

You’re probably right in theory. The first one does some dirty work trying to pump the downstream ridging before getting dampened and the trailing wave tries to pick up the pieces. But yeah, moot point at this range. lol

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Snowedin said:

Can we just stop for a bit and appreciate how nice it felt out there today. I probably had the nicest walk since last September with no wind, a little bit of sun and even a slight trickle of sweat on my forehead after coming back. I know the snow is cool and all but man the vibe is just so different when it’s like this outside. I hope everyone got a chance to enjoy it even for just a little while. It really takes the edge off during the darkest of days!

No.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, Snowedin said:

Can we just stop for a bit and appreciate how nice it felt out there today. I probably had the nicest walk since last September with no wind, a little bit of sun and even a slight trickle of sweat on my forehead after coming back. I know the snow is cool and all but man the vibe is just so different when it’s like this outside. I hope everyone got a chance to enjoy it even for just a little while. It really takes the edge off during the darkest of days!

My suggestions if you like this type of weather in late December I would probably think about a residence in a southern climate.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

My suggestions if you like this type of weather in late December I would probably think about a residence in a southern climate.

Yeah I’m all for warmth and dews in the summer, but this motherphucker is hungry for snow. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m all for warmth and dews in the summer, but this motherphucker is hungry for snow. 

I want to hear people bitch how cold and snowy it is so I can laugh at them.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

He needs to get snowedin…

[WxWatcher007]

Good lord y’all jumped on him like dog on a bone. 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah I’m all for warmth and dews in the summer, but this motherphucker is hungry for snow. 

Throw a bag of frozen peas on the midsection and enjoy the snow 

[dendrite]

15 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I want to hear people bitch how cold and snowy it is so I can laugh at them.

People up here were doing that in December lol. The public has forgotten what climo feels like.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

Lots of turds in the punchbowl. I kinda wish the s/w on the 6th was gone because it looks like the block relaxes just enough to get something up here. But there’s not enough wave spacing for the trailing s/w to amplify until it gets near our longitude. There’s still a lot of time though and these players will trend in different ways toward valid time. Some may disappear…some may suddenly be “seen” by the model.

@weatherwizhas been saying this.

[Snowedin]

20 minutes ago, dryslot said:

My suggestions if you like this type of weather in late December I would probably think about a residence in a southern climate.

Believe me my friend, it has started to cross my mind quite a bit in recent years. Half my family has already made the move and in all honesty, I might just end up doing the same before long. These skinny bones can’t handle the cold like they used to. I still love a good old fashioned powdery snowstorm on the odd occasion but my youthful enthusiasm for long winters has sadly started  to wane in recent times. Don’t let my warm bias kill the rejuvenated spirit around these parts. It’s been a long time since I’ve seen such well placed enthusiasm for actual winter threats on this humble board!

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@weatherwizhas been saying this.

There is a reason we’ve seen like 1 big solution on op runs over the last like 3-4 days. It’s a lot of sheared out stuff for the most part, along with fast flow.

People appear to be hiding behind the usual catchphrases “it’s early” “long way to go” “we just don’t know” etc etc. but it’s a legit concern and has been for days.

Kind of reminds me of the few weeks before the Feb 13 blizzard. Epic cold if I remember but like half an inch of attic sand to show for it. As the pattern relaxed a bit, we got the storm.

[CoastalWx]

I’d like today’s 6z gfs SE of the cape with Phil for all.

[ORH_wxman]

42 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You’re probably right in theory. The first one does some dirty work trying to pump the downstream ridging before getting dampened and the trailing wave tries to pick up the pieces. But yeah, moot point at this range. lol

Yes I think it works well in that scenario because the second one has a relatively undisturbed baroclinic zone due to the first getting ground up. Typically, when there’s two close together, that first one will sweep the baroclinic zone out to sea which screws us…but not if you can grind the first one into a pulp before it does that.
 

I’ve been looping a lot of the longer range ensembles and it’s remarkable how stable the longwave ridge out west is on so many individual members right to the end of their runs…it’s one reason I’m really not all that worried if the 1/6-1/7 threat doesn’t work out. This looks like one of those patterns that could produce a lot of chances even beyond the two we’re pseudo-focused on right now. A lot easier to get a hit if you have 4-5 at bats versus just one. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just wait until guidance hones in on a couple of eastern MA/RI specials. That will really rejuvenate Luke. 

I think he hates me most...lets get a nice late blooming 3-5-2001

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There is a reason we’ve seen like 1 big solution on op runs over the last like 3-4 days. It’s a lot of sheared out stuff for the most part, along with fast flow.

People appear to be hiding behind the usual catchphrases “it’s early” “long way to go” “we just don’t know” etc etc. but it’s a legit concern and has been for days.

Kind of reminds me of the few weeks before the Feb 13 blizzard. Epic cold if I remember but like half an inch of attic sand to show for it. As the pattern relaxed a bit, we got the storm.

You have now safely taken back over as the most unreadable  poster . Wrestled it back from Scooter . Welcome back 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

You have now safely taken back over as the most unreadable  poster . Wrestled it back from Scooter . Welcome back 

What did I do wrong?

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

like a couple men overlooking each other in nearby stalls at a NJ turnpike rest stop

I am sure we were all thinking the exact same thing.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What did I do wrong?

The last month was brutal bro . Love “the board” 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think he hates me most...lets get a nice late blooming 3-5-2001

Well you are the most shamelessly IMBY on here, lol. I’ll tell you, another 3/5-7/01 storm would erase some of those extreme NE MA and SE NH deficits really fast. Some people forget that 2 days after the end of that storm was a late bloomer Miller B that dumped another 6-12” of paste in that same area (might have been more up in Maine). What a ridiculous stretch. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

The last month was brutal bro . Love “the board” 

You have no idea how much I needed something only to get a flag pole in my rear. 
 

Whatever at this point. In optimistic for something. Many of the members have various scenarios like Will alluded to so if we miss next week, I’ll live. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

You have no idea how much I needed something only to get a flag pole in my rear. 
 

Whatever at this point. In optimistic for something. Many of the members have various scenarios like Will alluded to so if we miss next week, I’ll live. 

I know man. Totally understood . Life can be very brutal and when the wx also hits below the belt , it seems like there is no solace . Looks to this met anyway, that snow is imminent . Here’s to lots of snow in S Wey !

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@weatherwizhas been saying this.

I’ve driven myself so nuts these last 3-4-5 winters that I think I just look for the bad as a coping mechanism  

but in all seriousness…these last several winters have pissed me off. I am so sick of looking in the extended and seeing patterns which are “favorable”. I would have a friend who does landscaping text me once in a while (he follows a lot of different weather sources) and when he would catch wind of something he would text me, “what’s your thoughts?” And I would say, “yeah I’m super excited, this looks good and favorable for snow”…then nothing would happen. It just became embarrassing and quite frankly pissed me off. So this has driven me.

maybe 20-30 years ago you would just look at the pattern in the extended and just derive some thoughts based off the pattern, but we’ve come along way in this field. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking by me, but I am a firm believer we’ve come far enough in this field to where we can go further with just pattern assessment and just quickly say the pattern looks good based off blue colors in the East. We’ve seen enough of these “good” pattern not to produce to the point that we can all sit back and be like, “alright what’s going on here?” Obviously a reason here is how the pieces evolve and interact within the pattern but I fully believe we can sniff that out well ahead of time in some cases. 

[weatherwiz]

I think everyone needs to go to the local package store and grab a 40 of Steel Reserve. I may do that soon. I’ve only had two Steel Reserves since December 2018…might need to re-introduce them back. 

[Patrick-02540]

9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I think everyone needs to go to the local package store and grab a 40 of Steel Reserve. I may do that soon. I’ve only had two Steel Reserves since December 2018…might need to re-introduce them back. 

I just polished off an unattainable bottle of Rombauer chardonnay that was supposed to be reserved for a dinner guest tomorrow evening.  Now I have to tell him I tripped on the way up from the basement.  I don't think I've used that line on him before.  

[Torch Tiger]

Wondering if mby can squeeze by with < 10" into February

[40/70 Benchmark]

42 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’ve driven myself so nuts these last 3-4-5 winters that I think I just look for the bad as a coping mechanism  

but in all seriousness…these last several winters have pissed me off. I am so sick of looking in the extended and seeing patterns which are “favorable”. I would have a friend who does landscaping text me once in a while (he follows a lot of different weather sources) and when he would catch wind of something he would text me, “what’s your thoughts?” And I would say, “yeah I’m super excited, this looks good and favorable for snow”…then nothing would happen. It just became embarrassing and quite frankly pissed me off. So this has driven me.

maybe 20-30 years ago you would just look at the pattern in the extended and just derive some thoughts based off the pattern, but we’ve come along way in this field. Perhaps this is just wishful thinking by me, but I am a firm believer we’ve come far enough in this field to where we can go further with just pattern assessment and just quickly say the pattern looks good based off blue colors in the East. We’ve seen enough of these “good” pattern not to produce to the point that we can all sit back and be like, “alright what’s going on here?” Obviously a reason here is how the pieces evolve and interact within the pattern but I fully believe we can sniff that out well ahead of time in some cases. 

I know how you feel...mother nature has gone out of her way to engineer failure for me the past couple of seasons...March 2023 was a real kick in the nuts.

[weathafella]

47 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Wondering if mby can squeeze by with < 10" into February

I’m not forecasting this but rhetoric like this was voiced frequently in the first half of January 2015.

[Torch Tiger]

4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m not forecasting this but rhetoric like this was voiced frequently in the first half of January 2015.

well I once would have thought it was nearly promised to have 10" by February 1st, but the past several winters have been lean enough to consider it. Of course a good two week run (nowhere near 2015) will crush such a low bar

[DavisStraight]

14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I’m not forecasting this but rhetoric like this was voiced frequently in the first half of January 2015.

Will kept telling us the longwave pattern looked good, be patient.