Jester January

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Until some come ashore out west and get a good sampling, We wait.

Fast flow and the possibility of poor wave spacing and destructive interference is always in play but we wait and watch. 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Fast flow and the possibility of poor wave spacing and destructive interference is always in play 

story of the modern climo...

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/contentwxguy/status/1873831706475848075?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[HIPPYVALLEY]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

story of the modern climo...

Ya’ true story. 

[dryslot]

An innie and a outie.

[78Blizzard]

41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs delays until later on the 7th, but a near miss with a weaker coastal.

Hopefully that one works out because there is nothing else in the pipeline after that.

[dendrite]

Euro was more consolidated and potent with that s/w, but the confluence beneath the block just shears it apart. It’s just too much of a squeeze play. Relax the confluence and maybe we can get it up here before weakening much. 

 

At this range it’s all shits and giggles still though. 

[dryslot]

Sometimes to much of a good thing is a bit much.

[Damage In Tolland]

https://x.com/ericfisher/status/1873858382685433891?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Sometimes to much of a good thing is a bit much.

That’s why I don’t worry about epic patterns up here when it comes to snow. Even being a little AN in DJF can net us snowy months. Just keep it cold enough to snow and throw shortwaves our way and we will snow out of most of them. When NYC-RIC are weenieing out over the indices and the H5 look we can start playing with fire in NNE. 

[George001]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s why I don’t worry about epic patterns up here when it comes to snow. Even being a little AN in DJF can net us snowy months. Just keep it cold enough to snow and throw shortwaves our way and we will snow out of most of them. When NYC-RIC are weenieing out over the indices and the H5 look we can start playing with fire in NNE. 

For my area I don’t mind NYC weenies being excited about the pattern because often they do well when SNE does well, but when weenies in the southern mid Atlantic and Deep South are excited that’s not a good thing. I want them to rain.  

[Snowedin]

Can we just stop for a bit and appreciate how nice it felt out there today. I probably had the nicest walk since last September with no wind, a little bit of sun and even a slight trickle of sweat on my forehead after coming back. I know the snow is cool and all but man the vibe is just so different when it’s like this outside. I hope everyone got a chance to enjoy it even for just a little while. It really takes the edge off during the darkest of days!

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Hopefully that one works out because there is nothing else in the pipeline after that.

10-12 is ripe for a biggie. I actually like the fact the gfs doesn’t show an ideal phaser at this lead time but h5 doesn’t get any juicer. 

[George001]

NYC is just far enough north that they do well (not as well as SNE though) in strong miller b nor’easters such as Jan 2015, Feb 2013, Dec 2020, etc. In our best storms where we get 2+ feet NYC gets 6-12 while DC, Baltimore and anywhere south of them get rain.

[brooklynwx99]

17 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s why I don’t worry about epic patterns up here when it comes to snow. Even being a little AN in DJF can net us snowy months. Just keep it cold enough to snow and throw shortwaves our way and we will snow out of most of them. When NYC-RIC are weenieing out over the indices and the H5 look we can start playing with fire in NNE. 

NE doesn't need a -NAO whatsoever... most of BOS's major storms have no correlation with the NAO. they're all -EPO/+PNA driven

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

24 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s why I don’t worry about epic patterns up here when it comes to snow. Even being a little AN in DJF can net us snowy months. Just keep it cold enough to snow and throw shortwaves our way and we will snow out of most of them. When NYC-RIC are weenieing out over the indices and the H5 look we can start playing with fire in NNE. 

We have big discrepancies within our region…when you’re excited and PF is posting pics, that’s usually bad news here.

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, Snowedin said:

Can we just stop for a bit and appreciate how nice it felt out there today. I probably had the nicest walk since last September with no wind, a little bit of sun and even a slight trickle of sweat on my forehead after coming back. I know the snow is cool and all but man the vibe is just so different when it’s like this outside. I hope everyone got a chance to enjoy it even for just a little while. It really takes the edge off during the darkest of days!

Not in this thread. Weenie-ing out over April weather is why we have the December thread. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I know it’s the gfs op but you have a triple phaser that just missed and given that models historical tendency to slap streams together like a couple men overlooking each other in nearby stalls at a NJ turnpike rest stop…it’s not a bad spot to be at this time.

[ORH_wxman]

I actually don’t mind the second shortwave coming behind the other one on the 18z GFS because it allows amplification into the block somewhat. 
 

Im not sure it will look like that though given the euro is quite different with a much stronger consolidated shortwave. Either way, needing the confluence to relax a touch isn’t the worst spot to be at D7 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know it’s the gfs op but you have a triple phaser that just missed and given that models historical tendency to slap streams together like a couple men overlooking each other in nearby stalls at a NJ turnpike rest stop…it’s not a bad spot to be at this time.

Welcome to the real world friend! The incessant weed has you shook and unsure 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know it’s the gfs op but you have a triple phaser that just missed and given that models historical tendency to slap streams together like a couple men overlooking each other in nearby stalls at a NJ turnpike rest stop…it’s not a bad spot to be at this time.

That look near Jan 10-11 is really a powderkeg. Could easily end up as nothing but the longwave support on that is immense. You have this giant PNA ridge pushing everything so far south. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Welcome to the real world friend! 

He’s starting to come off the severe jaded horse…good to see. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

He’s starting to come off the severe jaded horse…good to see. 

Just wait until guidance hones in on a couple of eastern MA/RI specials. That will really rejuvenate Luke. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just wait until guidance hones in on a couple of eastern MA/RI specials. That will really rejuvenate Luke. 

Lol yea that would bring out the best of me. Jan 2015 anger that’s been buried by years of gummies suddenly resurfaces in the conscious from one gfs run jacking brett and scooter. 

[dryslot]

54 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s why I don’t worry about epic patterns up here when it comes to snow. Even being a little AN in DJF can net us snowy months. Just keep it cold enough to snow and throw shortwaves our way and we will snow out of most of them. When NYC-RIC are weenieing out over the indices and the H5 look we can start playing with fire in NNE. 

Thats is my take as well, We can get by on a less favorable set up in many cases where other areas need it, A +2-3 month in Jan still yields snow up here temp wise, But a solid block and strong confluence is not very friendly when your closer to those sources, This is why we need a favorable storm track thru the GOM, Not one squeezed south of here to the ENE, So that’s all I’m looking at now, Lot of cooks in the kitchen of flow right now.

[dryslot]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just wait until guidance hones in on a couple of eastern MA/RI specials. That will really rejuvenate Luke. 

The west of the river crew does not like congrats EMATT. 

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Euro was more consolidated and potent with that s/w, but the confluence beneath the block just shears it apart. It’s just too much of a squeeze play. Relax the confluence and maybe we can get it up here before weakening much. 

 

At this range it’s all shits and giggles still though. 

I like your new crayon toy

[Patrick-02540]

The only thing that would make this site crazier over the next 12 days is if one side of the river ends up with 2', and the other side gets nothing or rain.  I wouldn't want to be in here for that.  A true Civil War.  

[kdxken]

35 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I know it’s the gfs op but you have a triple phaser that just missed and given that models historical tendency to slap streams together like a couple men overlooking each other in nearby stalls at the Tolland rest stop…it’s not a bad spot to be at this time.

Fyp

[kdxken]

5 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

The only thing that would make this site crazier over the next 12 days is if one side of the river ends up with 2', and the other side gets nothing or rain.  I wouldn't want to be in here for that.  A true Civil War.  

We don't need no civil war.