Jester January

[weatherwiz]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This guy is the biggest clown. Every one of his videos starts off with either a massive storm or historic storm in the making or Arctic cold coming down ( he started talking about Arctic air coming down back in October like it was a big freaking Arctic outbreak ).

Just let's do a couple of his videos and you'll see what I mean. I'm sure he loves the weather like we do, but for someone who is naive, he would surely make them cream their pants 10 times over, and it would all be for nothing

Most of these weather Youtubers are awful, however, unfortunately they are mastering the game. They know exactly what gets clicks and subscriptions and unfortunately some of them are probably making some damn good money from this stuff. 

[Allsnow]

Congrats Dallas on the 12z euro 

[MJO812]

The Jan 6 will be for the Mid Atlantic. Not sure how far north it will come. NYC is on the cutoff on the Euro.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

The Jan 6 will be for the Mid Atlantic. Not sure how far north it will come. NYC is on the cutoff on the Euro.

Still day 7, could be congrats Deep South, shred to nothing, or less confluence to allow it to include CNE, going to be a while before we know the details.. 

[Great Snow 1717]

It's Dec 30th and practically on the eve of the new year but it has all the look and feel of a day in mid april..

[Sey-Mour Snow]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats Dallas on the 12z euro 

Lol it ends up porking SNE on snow the entire run while many other non snowy climates get 6-12" , just one op run though. 

[Allsnow]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Lol it ends up porking SNE on snow the entire run while many other non snowy climates get 6-12" , just one op run though. 

Yup. Same here at my location. Dallas would have more snow then phl/nyc/bos combined 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s real and it’s spectacular. 

Had a sudden influx of dense fog and thought "here comes the warmth".  Ten minutes later the fog was gone and we haven't yet reached 40.

[Patrick-02540]

19 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Most of these weather Youtubers are awful, however, unfortunately they are mastering the game. They know exactly what gets clicks and subscriptions and unfortunately some of them are probably making some damn good money from this stuff. 

I started playing it as soon as I put my cranberry muffins in the oven.  Instead of setting the timer, the only reason I left it on was because it was the exact length of time they needed to cook.  

[ORH_wxman]

Don’t need confluence to lift too much on euro for a pretty good event on 1/6. It’s a pretty vigorous shortwave. 

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t need confluence to lift too much on euro for a pretty good event on 1/6. It’s a pretty vigorous shortwave. 

The idv members on the eps seem to favor a further north solution 

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Unreal how warm it is out here 

It really is.  I hopped in my car and it was so warm, I thought Tip must be making a post.

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t need confluence to lift too much on euro for a pretty good event on 1/6. It’s a pretty vigorous shortwave. 

Yeah at least it wasn't a shredded SWFE. Semblance of a coastal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This guy is the biggest clown. Every one of his videos starts off with either a massive storm or historic storm in the making or Arctic cold coming down ( he started talking about Arctic air coming down back in October like it was a big freaking Arctic outbreak ).

Just let's do a couple of his videos and you'll see what I mean. I'm sure he loves the weather like we do, but for someone who is naive, he would surely make them cream their pants 10 times over, and it would all be for nothing

Yea, I watched a few of his videos before I knew better...clearly out for "clicks"...

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Congrats Dallas on the 12z euro 

This has been the pattern last several years...either shredeed and suppressed, or NNE. The multiple orifice oscillation....

[CoastalWx]

Man shift that random lobe north of Maine and that would be good.

[Allsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has been the pattern last several years...either shredeed and suppressed, or NNE. The multiple orifice oscillation....

I wouldn’t give up on the 6th yet…

 

but I get the frustration…

[Allsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Man shift that random lobe north of Maine and that would be good.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Def a lot of spread on 1/6…the mean has like 0.1” to the Canadian border but 0.25” down into parts of SNE. So prob a lot of big ones and total whiffs when you have a diffuse look like that on the QPF shield. 
 

This is to be expected though considering we are 7-8 days out. It feels like closer because we’ve been talking about that as the first potential event for days now. 

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This has been the pattern last several years...either shredeed and suppressed, or NNE. The multiple orifice oscillation....

Too much of this map.

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a lot of spread on 1/6…the mean has like 0.1” to the Canadian border but 0.25” down into parts of SNE. So prob a lot of big ones and total whiffs when you have a diffuse look like that on the QPF shield. 
 

This is to be expected though considering we are 7-8 days out. It feels like closer because we’ve been talking about that as the first potential event for days now. 

it's difficult to identify a larger order of mass field driven restoring in order to propagate a major through the field during that time. 

that unfortunately leaves it susceptible to smaller even nuanced suppression ( transitive forcing if you will ...) tendencies from the -d(nao);  a deterministic feat that's hard to do the day before, let alone 8 days out there. 

as it sits right this now, while typing... the better aspect would be less -d(nao).   the fact the models are tending to a s track may already be representative of these ideas above 

 

[ROOSTA]

*Most* of New England come 3rd week of the month: "WILL BE UNDER A NICE BLANKET OF SNOW."

Take that to the bank! 

*Ray will have 15" on the ground and think he's been screwed because Kev has 28"*

I crack myself up sometimes.
Of course I'm joking. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Too much of this map.

Ouchhhhhhh

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[brooklynwx99]

i think the 6th might present suppression issues with the 50/50 ULL so close by, but I can see SNE getting in on it if that trends weaker or if the S/W trends stronger (the latter seems more likely)... overall this presents as a DC-NYC type event but it's still out there

afterwards, the ensembles are definitely honking for a larger trough amplification as the +PNA pumps somewhere between the 8-11th as Tip mentioned. there is certainly the potential for something significant to major in this window... the pattern also persists through the 15th, so you'll have multiple opportunities to cash in, especially as the blocking eases

[weatherwiz]

Those heights get any lower and you can probably kiss the stratosphere at the base of Mount Washington. 

[ineedsnow]

windows open with a nice breeze.. perfect weather for April today

[iceman1]

never count anything out until the night before 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Don’t need confluence to lift too much on euro for a pretty good event on 1/6. It’s a pretty vigorous shortwave. 

Yeah that one is coming to at least SNE if not NNE

[Snowcrazed71]

I'll tell you what, waiting for this pattern to produce, if it produces, is definitely stressful LOL. You guys know that I'm the the optimistic one, ( well, try to be optimistic ). But it will be such a downer if nothing happens from this pattern that's upcoming. Could someone please tell me it will produce LOL

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah that one is coming ti at least SNE if not NNE

I don't know how you are so sure of this. But I really hope that you're right