Jester January

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have found when it snows earlier, its often a sign you are in a good spot...happned here last January with the OES appetizer.

Does that mean I’m gonna clean up?  In my mind the answer is no.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, rimetree said:

Been a pretty odd snow hole relative to normal from your area, particularly coastal York Cty, down to NE MA. Haven't broken 45" in at least 6 years with 29" last year being the worst.

Similar story here:

2018-2019 Snowfall

Nov 15-16- 6.5", Nov 19- Coating, Nov 20- 2", Nov 21- Coating (Nov Total- 8.5"), Dec 28- Coating, Dec 31- .5" (Dec Total- .5"), Jan 3- .5", Jan 19-20- 7", Jan 29-30- 4.5", (Jan Total- 12"), Feb 12-13- 5", Feb 18- 2", Feb 20-21- 3", Feb 27-28- 3.5" (Feb Total- 13.5") March 2- 1.5", March 3-4- 8.5", March 10- 3", March 13- Coating, March 23- Coating (March Total- 13")

Seasonal Total: 47.5"

 

 

2019-2020 Seasonal Snowfall for Methuen, MA:

Nov 17- T (Nov Total- T), Dec 1-3- 19", Dec 6- 1", Dec 11- 2", Dec 17-18-  3" , Dec 29-31- 3" (Dec Total- 28"), Jan 7-8- T, Jan 16- .5", Jan 18-19- 5.5" (Jan Total- 6") Feb 6- 1.5", Feb 13- 2.5" (Feb Total- 4") March 23-24- 4.5" (March Total- 4.5") April 16- 1", April 18- .5" (April Total- 1.5")

 Seasonal Tally: 44"

2020-2021

Oct 30- 2" (October Total 2"), Nov 25- T (November Total- T) Dec 5- 2", Dec 16-17- 11", Dec 20- 1.5" (December Total- 14.5") Jan 1-2- 1.5", Jan 3- Coating, Jan 5- .5", Jan 13- Coating, Jan 20- Coating, Jan 23- .5", Jan 26-27- 3", Jan 28- .5" (Jan Total- 6") Feb 1-2- 16.5", Feb 7- 4", Feb 9- 2.5", Feb 18-19- 3", Feb 27- 1"  (Feb Total- 27") (March Total-0") April 17- 1.5"  (April Total-1.5")

 

51” Total

 

Winter 2021-2022

Nov 26- .25" (Nov Total .25"), Dec 8-9- .25", Dec 10- Trace, Dec 18-19- 1.5", Dec 26- 1", Dec 28- T(Dec Total 2.75"), Jan 7- 6", Jan 11- .5", Jan 17- .5", Jan 23- T, Jan 24-25- .5", Jan 29- 12" (Jan Total 19.5") Feb 4-5- 2", Feb 13-14- 4", Feb 19- Coating, Feb 25- 8", Feb 27- .25" (Feb Total 14.25")   March 3- .5", March 9- 4.5", March 12- .5", March 28- .5" (March Total 6")

Seasonal Total: 42.5"

 

 

2022-2023 Winter Season Snowfall: Methuen, MA

12/11/22: 1”

12/17/22: ½” Rain ending as snow

12/23/22: ½” Squalls

December 2022 Snowfall: 2”

1/6/23: 1.5”

1/12/23: 1” Snow to Rain

1/16/23: 2.5”

1/20/2023: 5.75”

1/23/23: 5.75” Snow to Rain to Snow

1/25/23: ½” Snow to Rain

1/31/23: ½”

January 2023 Snowfall: 17.5”

2/21/23: 2”

2/23/23: 4”

2/26/23: ½”

2/28/23: 1.5”

February 2023 Snowfall: 8”

3/4/23: 5.5”

3/14/23: 7.5” Rain to Snow

March 2023 Snowfall: 13”

2022-2023 Seasonal Total: 40.5”

 

 

 

2023-2024 Snowfall

Dec 6: First Flakes (Coating), Dec 13: T (Dec Total- T) Jan 6-7: 19", Jan 9: .75", Jan 14: .75", Jan 16: 3.5" to IP/Glaze, Jan 20: Coating, Jan 24: 1", Jan 28-29: 2.5" (Jan Total: 27.5"), Feb 13- 1.5", Feb 14: Coating, Feb 15- 1" (Feb Total: 2.5") March 23: 1" (March Total: 1") April 4-5: 3.25" (April Total: 3.25"

Winter 2023-2024 Seasonal Total: 34.25")

[iceman1]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

This is the January thread.  Not December 

jan 6th 

[weathafella]

Looks like the 6-7th is coming back as a semi potent cold swfe 

[40/70 Benchmark]

SW looks to be digging more vs 06z on GFS out west by Sunday.

[weathafella]

Not sure of potency but it is not suppressed 

[CoastalWx]

Weak sauce shredded system on the GFS.

[weathafella]

The system on the 6-7 opens the arctic floodgates 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Weak sauce shredded system on the GFS.

Incredible how utterly useless NAO has been....either it gets neutered to irrelevency by RNA, or ruins SWs....just incredible.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Weak sauce shredded system on the GFS.

Yeah but qpf shield is over New England.  SeemEd to have more potential in earlier panels.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Incredible how utterly useless NAO has been....either it gets neutered to irrelevency by RNA, or ruins SWs....just incredible.

It probably would cut though verbatim if we did not have it.

[iceman1]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The system on the 6-7 opens the arctic floodgates 

before or after the storm 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It probably would cut though verbatim if we did not have it.

Who cares....yea, wouldn't want to wash away the depleted soul of winter's past amid my cracked, barren ground.

[weathafella]

The PV with 480 thickness west of James bay is not in a terrible spot for us.

[dryslot]

Still to far out to be of any concern either way.

[weathafella]

Just now, iceman1 said:

before or after the storm 

After the light snow.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It probably would cut though verbatim if we did not have it.

It would be another 55F rainstorm if we didn't have the NAO. Just need to avoid having too much block which is definitely a risk right now.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Still to far out to be of any concern either way.

I would like a bit more variety amongst these determinstic solutions, though....sheared crap has been a recurrent theme.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

The PV with 480 thickness west of James bay is not in a terrible spot for us.

Yes, Like seeing this core being NW of the region, Last thing we need is it sitting over our heads.

[moneypitmike]

2 minutes ago, iceman1 said:

before or after the storm 

after.

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

My log shows 20" for March, with another 6.5" on April 2nd.  Do you see something different?  Although the 3/7 event gave me 9" with 2" liquid equivalent.  Tashua Hill in Trumbull, at 600', received 16".  3/13 somewhat similar.

In Easton we had 10 from the storm where we lost power, 9.5 for the immediately following storm and 2.5 from the dud. Had 6 for the April 2nd storm.

[OceanStWx]

46 minutes ago, tunafish said:

That extends right up I-95 to PWM, IMO.  Here's the last 5 winters (Climo is 68.7")

59.6"

41.3

44.1

56.5

38.0

I have to go back to 2018-2019 to come up with an above normal season in my backyard. 2022-2023 and 2019-2020 were both near normal (within a storm of making it).

[kazimirkai]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Let the widespread panic begin!

 

 

I fuckin hate this guy so much

[40/70 Benchmark]

Def. going to be a tamer run than 06z

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Folks need to prepare that while h5 looks great and many fine animations will come from a Brooklyn hot dog stand…the chance of a lackluster stretch wrapped with wolf attacks may just be what happens. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

54 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

 

How do the AI models verify compared to the traditional ones?  Are they any good?

I think OceanState posted a good graphical comparison yesterday.  While not a panacea, they are good beyond four days...much like an ensemble mean.

[Layman]

11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

after.

[dryslot]

Don't really need to prepare much for anything at hr 252 on an op run.

[Kitz Craver]

The 6th system being shredded to nothing is a developing trend. I believe that’s what we see with that system. Yesterday GFS did the same thing, looked quite healthy in the OV and just vaporized on approach. It’s sniffing that out.

[weatherwiz]

Probably an unpopular opinion but I want to go back to the days of injecting southern stream shortwave energy up the coast and more of a bonus with northern stream phasing. I know we don't need southern stream energy to get storms up here and even big storms but the northern stream alone isn't doing jack shit for us. I'm curious to see if that cut-off low southwest of California is either going to help us or royally screw us...or maybe best case not be much of a factor.