Jester January

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I’m sure how epic this pattern looks, a big phaser will still find its way to run the surface low to Saratoga. 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think Allison would be hiding the children from you at that point

They’d have to call in the SWAT team.

[RDRY]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the W NE crew trying to talk us in to that being palatable for e MA... 

You're good. You got this.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is still fairly amplified for 1/6…and while there’s timing differences that overlap somewhat, there’s still two distinct event signals on the ensembles. 1/6-7 and 1/10-11…fairly similar to what we’ve been seeing on both Euro and GFS OP runs with two storms. 

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Heh....would be some interesting emotional swings if this were to play out.

What in the sam hell is that? Yrs olrase 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is still fairly amplified for 1/6…and while there’s timing differences that overlap somewhat, there’s still two distinct event signals on the ensembles. 1/6-7 and 1/10-11…fairly similar to what we’ve been seeing on both Euro and GFS OP runs with two storms. 

It matches the Euro op for Sunday night/ Monday. Getting close to having high confidence in that first one . Another day or two 

[Prismshine Productions]

End of the GFS had a second one brewing

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[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

End of the GFS had a second one brewing

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I can hardly contain my excitement at an F384 depiction. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It matches the Euro op for Sunday night/ Monday. Getting close to having high confidence in that first one . Another day or two 

OP Euro was a near-miss next Monday. But yeah, they are close....EPS is more amplified and gets precip into most of the region.

My biggest concern is still suppression on these....the block in the NAO region is really strong and it's the type of setup where we've seen suppression in the past.

[Prismshine Productions]

I can hardly contain my excitement at an F384 depiction. 

Eh, only reason I am throwing it out there is to show there are still more chances

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[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

OP Euro was a near-miss next Monday. But yeah, they are close....EPS is more amplified and gets precip into most of the region.

My biggest concern is still suppression on these....the block in the NAO region is really strong and it's the type of setup where we've seen suppression in the past.

Let's suppress and lock in the cold for pond skating.

[weatherwiz]

I seriously hope the 10th-12th period works out. Not optimistic about the period several days prior but please let this period work out. Feels like that period will never get here and its even crazier thinking that will be closing in on mid-January 

[CoastalWx]

There’s definitely chances, but I agree with Will that the block is the bigger problem right now. If it doesn’t suppress it, it could shear it to flurries. This is for the 6-7. Too far away to comment on anything beyond that. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely chances, but I agree with Will that the block is the bigger problem right now. If it doesn’t suppress it, it could shear it to flurries. This is for the 6-7. Too far away to comment on anything beyond that. 

Lets go with the ICON solution of the block pinning part of the PV and then doing a partial PV phase with the main shortwave

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I seriously hope the 10th-12th period works out. Not optimistic about the period several days prior but please let this period work out. Feels like that period will never get here and its even crazier thinking that will be closing in on mid-January 

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There’s definitely chances, but I agree with Will that the block is the bigger problem right now. If it doesn’t suppress it, it could shear it to flurries. This is for the 6-7. Too far away to comment on anything beyond that. 

This period will define the winter. If this fails to produce bigtime, its going to be another shitty season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I wish I was right about January being all Pacific driven....the added - NAO could shift the focus to the mid atl.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Lets go with the ICON solution of the block pinning part of the PV and then doing a partial PV phase with the main shortwave

lol I didn’t even look at that model. That would work. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I wish I was right about January being all Pacific driven....the added - NAO could shift the focus to the mid atl.

Need a hug?...

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[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

lol I didn’t even look at that model. That would work. 

Triple phase?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Need a hug?...

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No. Need a blizzard.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Triple phase?

Let’s just get some snow first.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Skynet just outside the BM with a whopper:

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Triple phase?

Not on that depiction but it would probably be a monster storm if we had another few panels. 
 

There’s a lot of ways for that storm to work but there’s definitely a meat-grinder/suppression risk too. That’s my biggest concern looking at overnight guidance. That block is a pig. On one level, that block is very likely preventing 1/6 from being a big cutter…the 1/6 shortwave is amplifying quickly out in the plains which wound surely send the system into Ontario without any Atlantic confluence or blocking. But too much of a good thing is a possibility. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Skynet just outside the BM with a whopper:

Works.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Not on that depiction but it would probably be a monster storm if we had another few panels. 
 

There’s a lot of ways for that storm to work but there’s definitely a meat-grinder/suppression risk too. That’s my biggest concern looking at overnight guidance. That block is a pig. On one level, that block is very likely preventing 1/6 from being a big cutter…the 1/6 shortwave is amplifying quickly out in the plains which wound surely send the system into Ontario without any Atlantic confluence or blocking. But too much of a good thing is a possibility. 

I would rather risk the cuttter...I hate the shredder scenarios. Even in the former, its probably a great front-ender.

[Great Snow 1717]

11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

This period will define the winter. If this fails to produce bigtime, its going to be another shitty season.

Certainly headed in that direction unless there is a significant pattern change....

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Certainly headed in that direction unless there is a significant pattern change....

Well, there will be....that is high confidence. But we need the details to work out.

[CoastalWx]

We take the model developed by Miles Bennett Dyson.

[weathafella]

wtf is Skynet?  I thought it was a media company. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, weathafella said:

wtf is Skynet?  I thought it was a media company. 

You’ve never seen the Terminator movies? Same with the reference of the person above.