Jester January

[Roger Smith]

Day 8 on Euro is good -- already posted elsewhere -NYC- (it's only at day 6 on site I look at). Can see on day 6 it's primed for a storm to develop. 

[H2Otown_WX]

8 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

Day 8 on Euro is good -- already posted elsewhere -NYC- (it's only at day 6 on site I look at). Can see on day 6 it's primed for a storm to develop. 

It sucks away from the south coast. Looks like something straight out of 2010. That's the risk we run with this pattern. Atlantic blocking is overrated for us...well, for me I'm far enough southwest it can help but I would rather take my chances with an overrunning pattern at peak climo.

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully the EPS and Skynet Euro are right because they had a decent signal for next week.

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the EPS and Skynet Euro are right because they had a decent signal for next week.

GFS has something again on the 6th, but in can't see past that yet on TT

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

GFS has something again on the 6th, but in can't see past that yet on TT

So, trying to read what I see on Pivotal... GFS 6Z does show something on the 6th. Seems like 1 low moves into the lakes and  precip makes it into the Northeast, but it seems to be sheared out with no new low taking shape. That's how I'm seeing it. Not sure if that's correct ( but it does drop some Snow in SNE ).

[UnitedWx]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So, trying to read what I see on Pivotal... GFS 6Z does show something on the 6th. Seems like 1 low moves into the lakes and  precip makes it into the Northeast, but it seems to be sheared out with no new low taking shape. That's how I'm seeing it. Not sure if that's correct ( but it does drop some Snow in SNE ).

Yeah it looks pretty weak now, but it's obvious the GFS doesn't know what to key into and where right now.  Like was said yesterday, treat it as just another ensemble member until we get closer. It amazes me how much it shifts every run now until within 3 days or so

[CoastalWx]

GFS is gonna try to deliver something after day 10 it seems. My take is that there’s a lot of different things that can happen to try to get Snow, and it may be tough to hone in on specific times for events. I still think the flow is conducive for at least a couple of events over the next two weeks.

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Yeah it looks pretty weak now, but it's obvious the GFS doesn't know what to key into and where right now.  Like was said yesterday, treat it as just another ensemble member until we get closer. It amazes me how much it shifts every run now until within 3 days or so

Again, good news is we will have the temps in place, and the setup is there to start seeing systems that could produce. The big question is how many systems produce, and how much precip we see? ( Doesn't answer much ), but we haven't had this kind of set up in quite some time.

[CoastalWx]

Gorrila from the Gulf on the GFS but goes into NYC lol. Day 11ish.  But that was a beast. Goes to show you the various things that could occur to get an event. The TPV dives into the plains on that run.

[ineedsnow]

lock it in? 

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro with Jan 6 snower 

[Kitz Craver]

Monster on the GFS, this set up is gonna produce, let’s hope it’s all haves and no have nots

[UnitedWx]

22 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lock it in? 

Verbatim there would be some great snow before it got that close

[Torch Tiger]

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Hopefully the EPS and Skynet Euro are right because they had a decent signal for next week.

All that matters are the ensembles....and I would have said that if they were meager and the OP should a Feb 6-7, 1978 reenactment-

[Hazey]

Ensembles still look solid. Bout all you can ask for at this timeframe. Long way to go before locking in op runs.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

lock it in? 

Too tucked 

[40/70 Benchmark]

51 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Verbatim there would be some great snow before it got that close

"Some great tunes played before I wrapped my Honda Civic around a telephone pole"

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Too tucked 

I love the W NE crew trying to talk us in to that being palatable for e MA... 

[UnitedWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"Some great tunes played before I wrapped my Honda Civic around a telephone pole"

LOL yeah,  but I'd take the front end on that... if my bleary morning eyes are seeing it correctly 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, UnitedWx said:

LOL yeah,  but I'd take the front end on that... if my bleary morning eyes are seeing it correctly 

Assuming a srong atecedent airmass...yea....wouldn't need a yard stick, though for e MA.

[Prismshine Productions]

Still would be a board-wide warning event

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

Need to consider many factors, though...for instance, where are we in the cyclone's lifecycle when it nears our latitude....if its occluding, its just going to mean an earlier dry slot, as opposed to much rain...but that is crap for another week. Larger threat of ample WAA if we are still in the cyclogenesis stage, but I am guessing that is either occluding or its imminent given the depth of that low.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Still would be a board-wide warning event

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Yea, no thanks.

Mid January with a 12" seasonal tally......Booooiiiiinnnngggg

[40/70 Benchmark]

That looks just like the March 2023 snowfall that dissapointed the shit out of 95% of SNE....and no one lives in the other 5% except @HoarfrostHubband @ineedsnow

[kdxken]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Still would be a board-wide warning event

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I'd hit that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Heh....would be some interesting emotional swings if this were to play out.

[CoastalWx]

Yeah that’s definitely tossed

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah that’s definitely tossed

I think Allison would be hiding the children from you at that point

[40/70 Benchmark]

NYC with 2' and Methuen stuck at 2" into mid January?

Why not...