Jester January

[mitchnick]

Last 4 runs on the Euro for the 6th, including today's. And to think it has the highest verification numbers  (but that's admittedly at 5 days.) More changes to come obviously. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

White Snake is calling you. You can hear the slamming on his guitar to “Jan ‘85! Jan ‘85!”

I’m leaning against my Pontiac Grand Prix with T-Tops…..Marlboro jacket on my index finger behind my back.

[Hailstoned]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of us would take and root on an icestorm . It’s the time of winter for them 

Who's your "us?"

[Layman]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They never made anything public or released anything on the extent of damage there . Just hushed it all up under the rug. 

I do enjoy these mashed up sayings you come up with. Bringing the gift horse to water was another classic 

[Prismshine Productions]

What is good for one forum sucks for another


The Southeast Crew is celebrating

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m leaning against my Pontiac Grand Prix with T-Tops…..Marlboro jacket on my index finger behind my back.

We’ll have the entire forum pitch in and give you the consolation prize if we get 1985’d

 

[CoastalWx]

Kevin’s jam from January 1985

 

 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

What is good for one forum sucks for another


The Southeast Crew is celebrating

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

How anyone would live and die by day 7+ op runs is beyond me.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

We’ll have the entire forum pitch in and give you the consolation prize if we get 1985’d

 

That was it lol. 83 Grand Prix with T-Tops.  My first car. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

They never made anything public or released anything on the extent of damage there . Just hushed it all up under the rug. 

On the NWS side of things, StormData will be finalized shortly, and the Service Assessment takes significant time to complete. I think the Buffalo blizzard took the better part of a year to complete all the interviews and compile information.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

Who's your "us?"

You is I and I is them 

[Prismshine Productions]

How anyone would live and die by day 7+ op runs is beyond me.

When you live in no-snow land... you get desperate

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Hailstoned]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You is I and I is them 

Takes a village.

 

[DJln491]

11 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

How anyone would live and die by day 7+ op runs is beyond me.

 

inside of 7 days there's nothing so I guess minds start to wander

[CoastalWx]

Just saw the euro. That’s hilarious. It’s not even all that cold. Just a flaccid run.

[dryslot]

Yup, Its over, Hopefully Feb doesn't torch.

[rclab]

16 minutes ago, Layman said:

I do enjoy these mashed up sayings you come up with. Bringing the gift horse to water was another classic 

Thank you Layman and DIT also. I remember my mom dropping one on my dad and me in the early sixties; “a rolling doorstep gathers no grass”. She said it slowly with conviction. My father tight lipped trying not to laugh left quickly. I on the other hand, being a smart alec high school senior. went hysterical. I got out of there quickly, though not quick enough to escape the shoe that followed me. Mom’s aim was deadly. Thanks again for stirring my memory pot. As always …..

. 

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, Layman said:

I do enjoy these mashed up sayings you come up with. Bringing the gift horse to water was another classic 

I remember Sammy Sosa talking about a pitcher that struck him out, I take off my hat and hand it to him.

[Go Kart Mozart]

7 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I remember Sammy Sosa talking about a pitcher that struck him out, I take off my hat and hand it to him.

Of course, his hat was 4 sizes larger than it was pre-roids.

[Torch Tiger]

congrats NC

[ROOSTA]

Don't even look at the OP models. Go ensembles to keep insanity in check!

[qg_omega]

The southeast deserves it, congrats to DT

[Damage In Tolland]

EPS laughs at suppression idea of op 

[weathafella]

Desolation row around here today.

 

 

[Go Kart Mozart]

38 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just saw the euro. That’s hilarious. It’s not even all that cold. Just a flaccid run.

Ahh, it's exaggerating the block.  AI has nothing like that...it shows a different problem, a consolidated bullseye vortex over James Bay.

Speaking of AI, I have been watching it closely.  It seems to work rather like an ensemble...very good beyond four days, not as good as the operationals within four days.  I would surmise that it is better in the longer range because it does not make compounded errors like the operationals.  Within four days, the operationals are better as they are making a detailed analysis of the current atmosphere rather than just recognizing patterns.

 

 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ahh, it's exaggerating the block.  AI has nothing like that...it shows a different problem, a consolidated bullseye vortex over James Bay.

Speaking of AI, I have been watching it closely.  It seems to work rather like an ensemble...very good beyond four days, not as good as the operationals within four days.  I would surmise that it is better in the longer range because it does not make compounded errors like the operationals.  Within four days, the operationals are better as they are making a detailed analysis of the current atmosphere rather than just recognizing patterns.

 

 

AI stuff has been hit or miss 

[OceanStWx]

11 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Ahh, it's exaggerating the block.  AI has nothing like that...it shows a different problem, a consolidated bullseye vortex over James Bay.

Speaking of AI, I have been watching it closely.  It seems to work rather like an ensemble...very good beyond four days, not as good as the operationals within four days.  I would surmise that it is better in the longer range because it does not make compounded errors like the operationals.  Within four days, the operationals are better as they are making a detailed analysis of the current atmosphere rather than just recognizing patterns.

Not my observation, but I've seen chatter about how the AI ECMWF has been showing more run to run consistency (i.e. no wild swings).

Of course the question is whether this is a real confidence builder, or only perceived because of the run to run stability. In theory being able to quickly produce a large ensemble might be able to truly give us the kind of dispersion we need for probabilistic forecasting. BUT the problem with AI is that it needs history to train on, so if it has never happened before the model isn't going to create it like a deterministic might.

You aren't wrong about the day 4 or so difference though.

[mahk_webstah]

30 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

The southeast deserves it, congrats to DT

So ur letting go of your cutter idea?

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Not my observation, but I've seen chatter about how the AI ECMWF has been showing more run to run consistency (i.e. no wild swings).

Of course the question is whether this is a real confidence builder, or only perceived because of the run to run stability. In theory being able to quickly produce a large ensemble might be able to truly give us the kind of dispersion we need for probabilistic forecasting. BUT the problem with AI is that it needs history to train on, so if it has never happened before the model isn't going to create it like a deterministic might.

You aren't wrong about the day 4 or so difference though.

It’s definitely more stable from my casual observation, but I also noticed a lot of solutions that did not occur.

[Patrick-02540]

OK, just playing around.  Grok had this to say:

"The next major snowstorm for New England may potentially occur around early January, with model data pointing towards significant winter storm events sometime between January 7th and 12th. However, weather forecasts, especially long-range predictions, can change, so these dates and events should be considered tentative."