Jester January

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

quite literally...

too cold to snow

It’s the strong hudson block and 50/50 low crushing any lift from the gulf coast. Relax that a bit and it ignites.

I like where we are…

[Go Kart Mozart]

It's funny, but the modeling for the Wednesday rainer has been unwavering for a week now.  Why can't we get that with a BM 970?

[H2Otown_WX]

11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

quite literally...

too cold to snow

Where's your obligatory 348 hr 2m temp map?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

It's funny, but the modeling for the Wednesday rainer has been unwavering for a week now.  Why can't we get that with a BM 970?

Because it really hasn’t been unwavering. There were some runs giving interior MA a paste job or close to it a couple days ago. We just don’t notice the oscillations when it’s the difference between 35F rain or 39F rain or 44F rain. 
 

There’s been some pretty big sensible wx differences for NNE on some of these runs. Like 6-10” of paste or just cold rain with some catpaws. 

[Prismshine Productions]

9 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Where's your obligatory 348 hr 2m temp map?

 

 

[dendrite]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

It’s the strong hudson block and 50/50 low crushing any lift from the gulf coast. Relax that a bit and it ignites.

I like where we are…

Yeah we don’t get that cold…lots of Labrador marine taint advecting in from the block.

It’s too much of a block for my liking up here. It can work, but there’s more potential hurdles introduced.

[moneypitmike]

At least we can have some winter-like temps.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Yeah we don’t get that cold…lots of Labrador marine taint advecting in from the block.

It’s too much of a block for my liking up here. It can work, but there’s more potential hurdles introduced.

Excessive cold into the Deep South with extremely high anomalies in both PNA region and NAO region is def giving me Jan ‘85 vibes. 
 

Hopefully it ends up amplifying and not a Deep South and Mid-Atlantic CJ 

[ROOSTA]

The present evolution has that appearance of something (it's called WINTER)
Just a feeling I have. Thinking most in here are on the same page. Waiting for Tip to comment on one of his 10k word post... 1/2 of which words used, personally never read before. A thread should be forthcoming. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Excessive cold into the Deep South with extremely high anomalies in both PNA region and NAO region is def giving me Jan ‘85 vibes. 
 

Hopefully it ends up amplifying and not a Deep South and Mid-Atlantic CJ 

Somewhere in ern CT near the RI border will be someone still smiling. 

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Somewhere in ern CT near the RI border will be someone still smiling. 

Hopefully we get some hires goes images of an eye like feature off of the delmarva.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Hopefully we get some hires goes images of an eye like feature off of the delmarva.

It is beautiful!! 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Hopefully we get some hires goes images of an eye like feature off of the delmarva.

Benchmark please but I’m not picky. 

[Hoth]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Benchmark please but I’m not picky. 

At this point covering the grass would feel like a HECS.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

There is potential for this to be a mid Atlantic special for the next month. We’ve seen it before.

A lot of congrats going around for something that hasn’t even happened 

[MJO812]

Euro suppression for every wave. Block too strong.

[CoastalWx]

GEFS have a lot of scenarios with events, just some different timing. 

[George001]

6 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There is potential for this to be a mid Atlantic special for the next month. We’ve seen it before.

A lot of congrats going around for something that hasn’t even happened 

In strong El Niños. This is a La Niña.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

In strong El Niños. This is a La Niña.

meh I don't think ENSO state is particularly dominant or a major driver right now. If anything, there may be quite the hangover from last years EL Nino. I was looking back and this December ended up playing out how I thought last December would  

[CoastalWx]

It may never snow again.

[SouthCoastMA]

meh. some should take a break from model watching and come back on January 2nd. Save yourselves the pointless anguish

[Torch Tiger]

GGEM way way south, wow

[Snowcrazed71]

Here comes the meltdowns and we're not even close to knowing what's going to happen yet. I love how the emotions work in conjunction with each model run LOL. 

[WxWatcher007]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It may never snow again.

If we can’t produce here we should just merge with the SE forum

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It may never snow again.

White Snake is calling you. You can hear the slamming on his guitar to “Jan ‘85! Jan ‘85!”

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If we can’t produce here we should just merge with the SE forum

South of the Pike can merge with the Mid Atlantic forum. Kevin can switch seasonally depending on which ASOS he is referencing.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There was a storm I recall that went into the upper 940s in January 2000…wanna say it was 1/21/00….the old NGM model the day before the event backed it close enough that it was giving 4” of QPF to E MA coast and Harvey Leonard started honking. ETA was trending west too but not quite as crazy…but still big QPF. The NGM was usually dry-biased so it was eye-popping to see those numbers. 
 

It ended up scooting east and just scraped us with a few inches. I think the storm annihilated Hazey’s area in Nova Scotia. Thankfully the forecasts never got too crazy because I think the 12z models the next day did shift it back east some so it was really just that one 00z run the day before. 

that 2000 year was an absolutely terrifying snow depth season over western ns and nf per a first hand account i had with a stranger.  we missed the goat winter here by really what amounts to a geo-meteorological ch's distance that year.   i recall either a storm or the one you were talking about.. but it bombed down to 943 mb about 300 mi e ...the western edge of a horrific ccb was like just over the eastern horizon by radar... and moved better than perfect for ns glacial death    

i was in a pub down on rt 20 in waltham one night in late february 2001  ... 'mad raven'   of all times and places to happen to see a photo ( no kidding)  some guy there who happened be visiting from ns he had a couple wallet photos he kept of that winter. the front of his house ... the snow depth musta been, i dunno 15 feet ?  the entire facade entombed on both side with at least 8 foot of depth on the roof itself.   the lights in the living room were like illuminated at the end of a white hallway

[Go Kart Mozart]

50 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Because it really hasn’t been unwavering. There were some runs giving interior MA a paste job or close to it a couple days ago. We just don’t notice the oscillations when it’s the difference between 35F rain or 39F rain or 44F rain. 
 

There’s been some pretty big sensible wx differences for NNE on some of these runs. Like 6-10” of paste or just cold rain with some catpaws. 

The track has moved 10s of miles here, 10s of miles there.  Of course the R/S line has moved 10s of miles along with that.  That's impressive model consistency.  

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, OceanStWx said:

South of the Pike can merge with the Mid Atlantic forum. Kevin can switch seasonally depending on which ASOS he is referencing.

DCA in summer ORH in winter?

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

that 2000 year was an absolutely terrifying snow depth season over western ns and nf per a first hand account i had with a stranger.  we missed a the goat winter here by really what amounts to a geo-meteorological ch's distance that year.   i recall either a storm or the one you were talking about.. but it bombed down to 943 mb about 300 mi e ...the western edge of a horrific ccb was like just over the eastern horizon by radar... and moved better than perfect for ns glacial death    

i was in a pub down on rt 20 in waltham one night in late february 2001  ... 'mad raven'   of all times and places to happen to see a photo ( no kidding)  some guy there who happened be visiting from ns he had a couple wallet photos he kept of that winter. the front of his house ... the snow depth musta been, i dunno 15 feet ?  the entire facade entombed on both side with at least 8 foot of depth on the roof itself.   the lights in the living room were like illuminated at the end of a white hallway

Yes I remember seeing pics of from NS and NF in the ne.weather group that winter. As epic as that winter was in N ORH county and interior S NH, it was like different planets compared to NS and NF. They just got completely buried that winter. Prob like a once per century type deal for them. Some pics had pretty good evidence of 7-8 foot snow depths on the level.