Jester January

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hmmm…

That actually might be decent for us as a battleground.

[CoastalWx]

Verbatim, and I want to emphasize verbatim… That’s high latitude blocking with the cold in central in Southern Canada.

[SnowGoose69]

5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hmmm…

Strangely enough Feb 81 was mostly just zonal.  The entire country likely torched based on the individual day height maps I see.  It seems though that more often the last 25 years however that the February pattern in La Nina winters loves to revert back to whatever the December pattern was in the GOA/AK area.  It would be strange if February reverted more to 12/8 onward with the sort of too far east and large displaced Aleutian low like a strong Nino.  Prior to 99 or 00 many La Nina Februarys simple went classic Nina, 89 was an exception where the pattern sort of resembled December 88 but there was a SSW I believe which made Feb/Mar 89 as cold as they were over the Plains/Lakes and at times SNE down to MA

[tamarack]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb ‘81 is the warmest February on record in a lot of northern New England sites. Absolute furnace of the month after one of the coldest Januarys on record. 

CAR was nearly +15 that month; the only New England month that comes close to that magnitude of departure, + or -, is Dec 1989.  (2/15 is a contender at some sites.)
Going into it, CAR's warmest Feb temp was 49.  2/81 tied that mark twice and topped it 7 times.  The St. John ice ran, unheard of in midwinter, taking with it the logging bridge ~30 miles SW from Allagash.  (Normally, that bridge would be disassembled in late March and reassembled in May.)  This after the coldest of the 9 Decembers we lived there and 2nd coldest of 10 Januarys.  80-81 was also the least snowy (43") of the 130 winters at the Farmington co-op, 1" less than the previous winter.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Hmmm…

Mild February would be right in line with La Nina climo. But as long as the boundary is close to us, we can usually survive with AN temps and still do decent on snow (ala 2017 or even 2008)…or we can hope an SSW happens and we get a big blocking episode in La Niña February ala Feb 2021. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That actually might be decent for us as a battleground.

Yea. Looks like a crap pac/good atl pattern but unlike the past several winters, canada isn’t torched so the cold source nearby. Could work during peak climo but very reliant on the atlantic side. 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Strangely enough Feb 81 was mostly just zonal.  The entire country likely torched based on the individual day height maps I see.  It seems though that more often the last 25 years however that the February pattern in La Nina winters loves to revert back to whatever the December pattern was in the GOA/AK area.  It would be strange if February reverted more to 12/8 onward with the sort of too far east and large displaced Aleutian low like a strong Nino.  Prior to 99 or 00 many La Nina Februarys simple went classic Nina, 89 was an exception where the pattern sort of resembled December 88 but there was a SSW I believe which made Feb/Mar 89 as cold as they were over the Plains/Lakes and at times SNE down to MA

What an absolutely horrific looking pattern over the CONUS. Look at that…looks like late April 

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

What an absolutely horrific looking pattern over the CONUS. Look at that…looks like late April 

 

Somehow the NAO/AO both averaged negative that month, the first 10 days might have skewed it enough.  That looks very Feb 2011 like from my memory.  at least late month

[tamarack]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mild February would be right in line with La Nina climo. But as long as the boundary is close to us, we can usually survive with AN temps and still do decent on snow (ala 2017 or even 2008)…or we can hope an SSW happens and we get a big blocking episode in La Niña February ala Feb 2021. 

We take.  Those are the 2 snowiest Februarys I've experienced, each >45".

[Typhoon Tip]

i don't believe the current climate footprint should reasonably imagine a verifying cfs outlook working in favor of winter enthusiasts.  

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

in fact ...we've well established that february is capable of shock and awe warm departures, particularly over the last decade of them ...  with multiple different years in the span hosting febs with 70s even an 80 on a couple occasions... ( nothing wrong with 30+ anomaly high ).    i would consider that outlook fair warning -

[Torch Tiger]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What an absolutely horrific looking pattern over the CONUS. Look at that…looks like late April 

 

looks great

[NW_of_GYX]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

in fact ...we've well established that february is capable of shock and awe warm departures, particularly over the last decade of them ...  with multiple different years in the span hosting febs with 70s even an 80 on a couple occasions... ( nothing wrong with 30+ anomaly high ).    i would consider that outlook fair warning -

2017 was my snowiest Feb locally but also included one of those shock and awe warm weeks. We melted roughly 30” of pack in < 5 days. So it’s not a binary thing, we can do both and have. Winter came roaring back that year second week of March with a region wide blizzard mid month

[NorEastermass128]

17 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

in fact ...we've well established that february is capable of shock and awe warm departures, particularly over the last decade of them ...  with multiple different years in the span hosting febs with 70s even an 80 on a couple occasions... ( nothing wrong with 30+ anomaly high ).    i would consider that outlook fair warning -

Warm it up in Feb. Heading to RSW at the end of the month and don’t need to see 10s/20s there. 

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Warm it up in Feb. Heading to RSW at the end of the month and don’t need to see 10s/20s there. 

We’re heading there also!  For a month.  I’ll take the cold now and have a better chance of warmth in FL in March.  Trying to decide if we drive like last year or fly.  

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Warm it up in Feb. Heading to RSW at the end of the month and don’t need to see 10s/20s there. 

Going to the Florida state fair in February hoping it's a little warm lol 2 years ago we went and went swimming in the Gulf.. pretty fun swimming in February.. 

[Roger Smith]

Feb 1981 was 15th warmest (of 156) at NYC and 13th warmest (of same 156 and 14th of 184 total, 1842 was lone addition not in NYC data) at Toronto, records were set in second half as first half was transitional from the cold January (ranked 19th coldest NYC and 18th coldest Toronto, even better cold ranks if urban heat island correction applied). For comparison, Jan 1994 ranked 17th NYC and t4th at Toronto. 

I believe there was also a potent cold shot in early Jan 2010 to Florida, followed by a mild spell mid-Jan and the epic storminess from Jan 30 to late Feb (best for mid-Atl). 

[MJO812]

Weenie gfs run coming

[UnitedWx]

Looks Miller A ish on the 9th

[Prismshine Productions]

*faints*

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[WeatherX]

That would take care of a lot of issues


.

[MJO812]

Gfs gets really cold after the huge snowstorm

[CoastalWx]

Oh man a wet dream for all. Cold and snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

48 minutes ago, NW_of_GYX said:

2017 was my snowiest Feb locally but also included one of those shock and awe warm weeks. We melted roughly 30” of pack in < 5 days. So it’s not a binary thing, we can do both and have. Winter came roaring back that year second week of March with a region wide blizzard mid month

no it's not always one or the other. 

just in deference to the outlook "if" it were to succeed that's also for the whole month.  the current climate back ground connotes less probability for those cool sides and/or a diametric month like your describing there.  that looks like a bombastic  lay. 

they're right that being on the polar side of the boundary would be a whole different world, but i don't believe acceptance of the current climate leans one in favor of that

[Prismshine Productions]

32" of snow over the course of a week for me...


That would put me at what I had all last season total (42.5) by the second week of January

[mitchnick]

This is something different. Lol

[Prismshine Productions]

@40/70 Benchmark would have fun with that Eastern Mass mini jack near Boston

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[Damage In Tolland]

15 minutes ago, WeatherX said:

That would take care of a lot of issues


.

Bed wetting ?

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

@40/70 Benchmark would have fun with that Eastern Mass mini jack near Boston

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Pretty sure he would find some reason to chuck hospital equipment. 

[kdxken]

I don't know, after a nice warm stretch the cold is going to feel pretty much like this.