Jester January

[Henry's Weather]

On 12/19/2024 at 6:22 PM, weathafella said:

I don’t anyone has a choice but 2012-13 high snow but mild winter is ideal for me.  2/8/13 began with marginal temperatures but who wouldn’t take 2-3 feet again?  Same for 3/8/13 but snow more like 18-24

There were also a few events in December as far as I can recall. Very solid winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ok but why?  lol 

I will be away in the hospital and we'll probably get 3' in Methuen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

It seems to me non coupling Ninas/Ninos are becoming more of a thing, 18-19, to some degree last year despite the fact it was a stronger Nino and now maybe this one.

Well, its no big deal when they are this weak...

[George001]

I looked at the 500mb pattern a bit closer now that the storm is over, and I’m a bit torn. The surface temps are not as cold as I would like, but that’s a stormy pattern. The long range 500mb pattern looks like a favorable Niña pattern with the poleward Alaskan ridging but with a Nino STJ. The key will be getting enough cold air and avoiding the dreaded south based block. My gut feeling is the first week of Jan isn’t cold enough but the second week is a different story. It’s an interesting look regardless. 

[tamarack]

12 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 1-2, 1987 was the syzygy storm. That one dumped 18-24” in a narrow band from your area up toward Nashua. ORH had something like 14”…but there was a nice weenie enhanced zone just NW of the ptype issues. 
 

There was, of course, an incredible storm tide with that. Not sure if you had previously mentioned you were on the North Shore for that or if it was another event. 

PWM reported snow from that storm shortly after 4 AM but it wasn't until almost 12:30 when I saw the first flakes from my office in AUG Eastside.  Within less than 60 seconds I could barely see the pines across Hospital Street about 500 feet away - perhaps the greatest "wall of snow" I've seen (some Fort Kent snowsqualls the only competition).  We had 16.0" at our Gardiner home, 2nd biggest snowfall in our 13 winters there.  (Blockbuster storms landed elsewhere during that period.)

[Go Kart Mozart]

Happy New Year to western CT!

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Happy New Year to western CT!

That would be cute with my locale sitting at 1.5" on the year.   Caught in the oscillation where I'm either not close enough to the ocean or too far north, or too close to the ocean and too far south. Earlier in the season was the latter, yesterday the former and that would be the latter yet again.

[Typhoon Tip]

15 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Jan 1-2, 1987 was the syzygy storm. That one dumped 18-24” in a narrow band from your area up toward Nashua. ORH had something like 14”…but there was a nice weenie enhanced zone just NW of the ptype issues. 
 

There was, of course, an incredible storm tide with that. Not sure if you had previously mentioned you were on the North Shore for that or if it was another event. 

that would be the one.   

I had lived in Rockport, Ma the previous year, a time when I gathered my first experiences witnessing the thunderous power of the north Atlantic.  There was really only one coastal storm during that winter I was there, but that was enough to get me really hooked on the phenomenon of storm wind, combining lower barometric pressure,  turning the sea into a monster.  Creepy cold abyssal walls of camouflage green that rise up to a knife edge just before folding over with such force that when standing upon the beach, feeling quite insignificant before that specter, you could swear you felt the tumult seismically under foot.  

I'd never seen such sights before ... having grown through adolescence/early childhood in southern lower Michigan.   I was all about crispy tcu's and tornadoes.   I witnessed an EF3 tornado, on Tuesday, May 13, 4:30 pm, Kalamazoo.  A dimmer switch stole the daylight over the preceded 20 minutes. Then, the WWII era air-raid horn started blaring.  The sitter yelled for me to come into the basement - I looked at her with the expression of a sociopath, turned and ran instead toward my favorite thunder-cloud clearing.  Lol. There I saw the cone, perfectly smooth subtended about half way to the ground beneath from my rough 1.5 mi vantage.  It looked like swarms of bees were rising and falling in pulsating masses underneath - and it's quite true about that sound... I'd only add, it's not really just like an engine test adjacent to an aeronautical proving ground, but it had this like shrill, as though the wind itself was shrieking out in pain.  It's fantastically arresting - nothing else matters when you are child bearing witness to something like that.   And it was the best seats in the house!  I was in that wind void region, ahead of the RFD, and having the inflow jet a few hundred feat over the tree tops, providing a relative calm to see how effortlessly the blithe beast discards whatever it is that fate happened to put in its path.   Mainly what I saw was single story urbania being ripped into the vortex.   7 people lost their lives that day.  I sometimes reflect upon that moment with that visage of carrying on in that not-so distance, that I probably was witnessing actual death take place.  Oh, and for that little act of sitter defiance I earned myself a week of grounding - a ruling that would be later commuted.  Some punishments are just to futile I suppose ..

2 years before that ... the Cleveland Super Bomb.  I was not here for February 5-7, 1978.  But the January 26-28, 1978 event that took place 2 weeks prior, I can honestly say I have never experienced anything of winter rage that nearly compares to that in the decades since living here in New England.   But ... in defense of New England, the 'maintenance winter storms' of winter season, are vastly more common and produce greater entertainment value in aggregate - by a considerable margin.   This is in no means attempting to strike up a competition between the two... it's kind of like trying to compare Mike Tyson in his prime with a Rumble In The Jungle version of Ali.   Beside, .. from the accounts of Harvey Leonard ( whom I'd later privilege to intern with) and others that grew up in this region, Feb 1978 was probably more like a twin seasonal thing...  probably should consider 1978 a GOAT year and just call it a day.

So, I was not completely miss-understood regarding winter storms when I arrive out here to the eastern tip of Cape Ann in the mid 1980s.  But the whole ocean aspect was something I really wanted to get back to after my family relo-ed again to Acton during 1987.  Having friends still in town up there, it was an easy arrangement to dork may way back for the big storm.   As it were, we really didn't suffer a lot up there.  Some small boulders and a large yield of seaweeds hurled onto the streets of Front Beach at high tide. And of course ... lots of heavy spray and mist pelting along sea facing shops and edifices that line the shore fronts - like what you see on t.v.  I'm not sure how Marblehead and Hull and LI Sound and the Jersey shore did...  My memory has an impression that Jan 1987 was the highest storm tide event ( though ..) until the December 1992 event.  

[EastonSN+]

2 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Happy New Year to western CT!

Perfect

[Typhoon Tip]

this is one of the most extraordinary constructs you'll ever see out of an ensemble mean for this range and current modeling technology/capability ...

[Prismshine Productions]

this is one of the most extraordinary constructs you'll ever see out of an ensemble mean for this range and current modeling technology/capability ...

Frame it

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is one of the most extraordinary constructs you'll ever see out of an ensemble mean for this range and current modeling technology/capability ...

You’ll be interested in the GEFS too. Mostly because of the subtropics…when was the last time it looked like that?

 

[brooklynwx99]

46 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’ll be interested in the GEFS too. Mostly because of the subtropics…when was the last time it looked like that?

 

yeah this is the timeframe I like for a larger snow event... very cold airmass has been established with a potent -EPO, there's a N ATL dipole with lots of confluence in the 50/50 region, and split flow. the STJ undercutting is something out of the Modoki Nino handbook too

[Go Kart Mozart]

I know most mets talk about high-latitude blocking, but I love the look of a big Labrador & Newfoundland block.  Let's get something exotic...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

You’ll be interested in the GEFS too. Mostly because of the subtropics…when was the last time it looked like that?

 

yeah i've been noticing that too but i'm interested in if that stays that way.   pointing out the obvious, the eps and geps go out that far and don't present that much recession of the height medium.  i've also seen that correct back upstairs as it nears.   

so as is ... that's not something i've seen really in some 9 or 10 years - perhaps 2015 is the last time.  sufficed it is to say, that would slow the flow down and allow things to amplify up under as oppose to a race between stretching and deepening rates... 

edit:  upon closer eval ...yeah that flow over the gulf and across florida has higher compression potential than we've seen in recent seasons.  the old "miami rule" works, having the 582 south, with a big enough isohypsotic gap that the winds are not already buzzing a s/w eating 50+ kts before anything has a chance hit the se coast.  again, i've seen that medium down there correct back upwards from this range in the past.  we'll see.

[Ginx snewx]

On 12/16/2024 at 2:02 PM, CoastalWx said:

Tanuary to start.

Fail

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Fail

First few days will be AN per EPS

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

First few days will be AN per EPS

There’s a possible snower 12/31-Jan 3 frame 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s a possible snower 12/31-Jan 3 frame 

I’ll check back in when there’s a real threat 

[Damage In Tolland]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll check back in when there’s a real threat 

You’re broken (back)

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You’re broken (back)

Yep.  Nothing soothes the soul like a little Pantera.

 

[Torch Tiger]

Nice rainer / NNE mix snow on the 18z gfs.

[mreaves]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Yep.  Nothing soothes the soul like a little Pantera.

 

RIP Dimebag and Vinny Paul

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Perfect

Can only get better from here. Start at a d12 jack and adjust to a higher jack as we get closer.

[brooklynwx99]

3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah i've been noticing that too but i'm interested in if that stays that way.   pointing out the obvious, the eps and geps go out that far and don't present that much recession of the height medium.  i've also seen that correct back upstairs as it nears.   

so as is ... that's not something i've seen really in some 9 or 10 years - perhaps 2015 is the last time.  sufficed it is to say, that would slow the flow down and allow things to amplify up under as oppose to a race between stretching and deepening rates... 

edit:  upon closer eval ...yeah that flow over the gulf and across florida has higher compression potential than we've seen in recent seasons.  the old "miami rule" works, having the 582 south, with a big enough isohypsotic gap that the winds are not already buzzing a s/w eating 50+ kts before anything has a chance hit the se coast.  again, i've seen that medium down there correct back upwards from this range in the past.  we'll see.

lol i know you’re on the big storm train. the similarities are uncanny, obviously not calling for anything this massive but the pattern really is analogous

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Lock in Jan96 redux. The king of all i95 snow events. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Lock in Jan96 redux. The king of all i95 snow events. 

No thanks.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I quit weather if we get a Jan '96 redux.