Jester January

[Boston Bulldog]

Good sign that random bombs are showing up on guidance. A signal should coalesce as we get closer

[apm]

25 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Can you post?  

Says the GIF file is too big at 3.4MB.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Good sign that random bombs are showing up on guidance. A signal should coalesce as we get closer

When times were good, We would  get those hr 384 bombs on the Op GFS consistently, Those have been absent these past few years, Some would actually pan out into MECS events.

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

Good sign that random bombs are showing up on guidance. A signal should coalesce as we get closer

Well as Scott said just yesterday….the OP runs should start showing something if this is a legit pattern.  And today that has happened.  Good sign as you said. 

[ineedsnow]

12 minutes ago, apm said:

Says the GIF file is too big at 3.4MB.

lol I ended up looking I just had stuff going on before..   thanks though

[DavisStraight]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

lol I ended up looking I just had stuff going on before..   thanks though

I was just going to post it but had the same problem.

[DavisStraight]

The cold comes in pretty good after the new year and stays for a while, should give us some good opportunities.

[Prismshine Productions]

EPS member 16 would be close to Biblical.
 
 

What exactly is that member showing?...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah … the eye candy has its entertainment value and it’s fun …

i don’t think that’s our system heading towards the 11th tho …i think we need to watch this period here

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

The cold comes in pretty good after the new year and stays for a while, should give us some good opportunities.

I would suggest folks load up on firewood before it's too late.

[George001]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I respect the hell out of John, but puff-puff pass on this-

I would have gotten sucked in by a threat like this a few years ago, but now I know better to not use 10:1 snow maps in these marginal setups. Accumulated positive snow depth tells the story, snow confined to the mountains, not much accumulation for us living at sea level. Im expecting mostly rain and maybe a bit of non accumulating snow at the end here, what interests me is what happens after that storm passes.

[kdxken]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I would suggest folks load up on firewood before it's too late.

And only from reputable dealers such as myself.

 

[weatherwiz]

Looks like another round of significant LES upcoming otherwise Zzzzzzzz

Gotta wonder if we actually see the Lakes freeze moving through January

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Looks like another round of significant LES upcoming otherwise Zzzzzzzz

Gotta wonder if we actually see the Lakes freeze moving through January

Go gas down a couple nice big meatball grinders…and put a few pounds on, you’re gonna need it when the hounds come howling later next week and beyond Wiz. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Go gas down a couple nice big meatball grinders…and put a few pounds on, you’re gonna need it when the hounds come howling later next week and beyond wiz. 

Cold, dry, and boring...everyone's favorite. At least it will be staying light out later each day and we'll soon be gaining light in the morning. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

Cold, dry, and boring...everyone's favorite. At least it will be staying light out later each day and we'll soon be gaining light in the morning. 

Have you seen the OP runs today? Doesn’t look to boring to me once past the new year.  
 

And ya still got about 8 days or so before the sunrises bottom out.  

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Have you seen the OP runs today? Doesn’t look to boring to me once past the new year.  
 

And ya still got about 8 days or so before the sunrises bottom out.  

I have...looks boring. Not much in the way of shortwaves moving through...just elongated strung out vorticity and flow doesn't seem to offer much room for any type of amplification. The best shots for anything really are the period Tip highlighted and the 10th-12th. Outside of that it looks dry and boring. But the 10th-12th shouldn't be slept on. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have...looks boring. Not much in the way of shortwaves moving through...just elongated strung out vorticity and flow doesn't seem to offer much room for any type of amplification. The best shots for anything really are the period Tip highlighted and the 10th-12th. Outside of that it looks dry and boring. But the 10th-12th shouldn't be slept on. 

Looks pretty active to me.  But Ok…we’ll see. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have...looks boring. Not much in the way of shortwaves moving through...just elongated strung out vorticity and flow doesn't seem to offer much room for any type of amplification. The best shots for anything really are the period Tip highlighted and the 10th-12th. Outside of that it looks dry and boring. But the 10th-12th shouldn't be slept on. 

Are you a Met?

[weatherwiz]

You obviously want to see good/favorable patterns modeled in the extended range but it's also important to get an idea of what is going on within the modeled pattern...how are things moving. This looks pretty meh to me outside of a few periods. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Are you a Met?

depends on the day

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You obviously want to see good/favorable patterns modeled in the extended range but it's also important to get an idea of what is going on within the modeled pattern...how are things moving. This looks pretty meh to me outside of a few periods. 

 

A few periods is all you need….but thanks for the input. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

11 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I have...looks boring. Not much in the way of shortwaves moving through...just elongated strung out vorticity and flow doesn't seem to offer much room for any type of amplification. The best shots for anything really are the period Tip highlighted and the 10th-12th. Outside of that it looks dry and boring. But the 10th-12th shouldn't be slept on. 

I think I saw a thunderstorm chance in there.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

A few periods is all you need….but thanks for the input. 

I often debate with myself...would I prefer an active period where you get several events but they're small to medium or one event that is a blockbuster. I never had a good answer for this. The blockbuster is great, especially because of the adrenaline rush leading up to and during the event, but that eventually does wear off and if there is nothing else going on...well it kind of sucks lol. 

I'm the same way with summer...do I want an active period with many thunderstorm events (mostly just general thunderstorms with lack of severe storms) or would I prefer one higher end event? 

I think I lay more towards active versus blockbuster winter event/higher end severe weather but it's tough lol

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

You obviously want to see good/favorable patterns modeled in the extended range but it's also important to get an idea of what is going on within the modeled pattern...how are things moving. This looks pretty meh to me outside of a few periods. 

 

Put the beer down and step away. Get a good nights sleep and look at things in the morning. This is one of our most favorable patterns in years setting up and it’s inside day 7 tomorrow.  Will we cash in? Who knows, no one knows, but odds are stacked in our favor for a change during the 7-15 day period and beyond potentially and that’s all we can ask for. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Put the beer down and step away. Get a good nights sleep and look at things in the morning. This is one of our most favorable patterns in years setting up and it’s inside day 7 tomorrow.  Will we cash in? Who knows, no one knows, but odds are stacked in our favor for a change during the 7-15 day period and beyond potentially and that’s all we can ask for. 

Well this was where I was going with this too…And didn’t quite understand his take either, but he’s supposedly the Meteorologist.  

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Put the beer down and step away. Get a good nights sleep and look at things in the morning. This is one of our most favorable patterns in years setting up and it’s writhing day 7 tomorrow.  Will we cash in? Who knows, no one knows, but odds are stacked in our favor for a change during the 7-15 day period and beyond potentially and that’s all we can ask for. 

These two statements are said 2-3x per winter and more with the second statement. 

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

depends on the day

Just like the B's, I step out its 1-1, 3 mins later its 4-1, SMH.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

These two statements are said 2-3x per winter and more with the second statement. 

And you put out statements all the time about severe..that never ever play/pan out, so I think it evens out.  So you should understand the situation.  

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

These two statements are said 2-3x per winter and more with the second statement. 

Would you rather the medium to long range have a trough down to the Baja and a record breaking eastern ridge with highs near 70  on Jan 3rd and beyond? If we want snow you need certain pieces in place, Bring in the cold, and the right teleconnections and snow should follow most of the time, if we strike out again, well that will suck yet again. But there is plenty of hope.