Jester January

[Sey-Mour Snow]

10 minutes ago, Patrick-02540 said:

I would love to see an aggregated snowfall map of New England for 2000-2020.   Wonder if that's available.  

@The 4 Seasons .. fun little side project

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So after checking on both storms... Feb '06 Hartford received 21.9".  The blizzard of 1996, Hartford received 15.8". Bridgeport received 16" ( less than I would have thought ) as Fairfield received 27.8" and West Hartford received 27"!!! 

I know Hartford proper had at least 2’ in Feb 06. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Hartford proper had at least 2’ in Feb 06. 

The Farmington Valley did.  The stripe of heavy went from NYC to the western burbs of Hartford.  I lived in Fairfield at the time...12 stinkin  inches.

[The 4 Seasons]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So after checking on both storms... Feb '06 Hartford received 21.9".  The blizzard of 1996, Hartford received 15.8". Bridgeport received 16" ( less than I would have thought ) as Fairfield received 27.8" and West Hartford received 27"!!! 

 

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Hartford proper had at least 2’ in Feb 06. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Like the look still after the 5th or so. 3rd still in play too although airmass is iffy. But man I can’t hate on this upcoming pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

 

That storm forced me to understand dryslots more. We got slotted big time, but luckily we benefited from enhanced moisture off the ocean. I think I had like 15” or so. 

[mahk_webstah]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like the look still after the 5th or so. 3rd still in play too although airmass is iffy. But man I can’t hate on this upcoming pattern. 

Yeah it is outside 6 days so I feel like it is in play for jan2-3.  Especially since the pattern will be changing significantly at that time which gives more uncertainty 

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Like the look still after the 5th or so. 3rd still in play too although airmass is iffy. But man I can’t hate on this upcoming pattern. 

EPS seems to focus on Jan 1-2 (warm storm except maybe NNE) and then wait until 1/6 for the next event. GFS suite tries to maybe amplify 1/3 a bit on the heels of the Jan 1 storm. 
 

EPS still looks pretty active in that 1/6-1/10 period. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

EPS seems to focus on Jan 1-2 (warm storm except maybe NNE) and then wait until 1/6 for the next event. GFS suite tries to maybe amplify 1/3 a bit on the heels of the Jan 1 storm. 
 

EPS still looks pretty active in that 1/6-1/10 period. 

I think we just need to wait until the 6th or so and if the 3rd happened to work out then it’s all gravy. 
 

Euro in la la land had a setup I haven’t seen in years. Nrn stream s/w diving sharply south and spawning a nice coastal. When is the last time we saw that?

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

 

Now that’s a porking in NW CT. 

[The 4 Seasons]

12 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now that’s a porking in NW CT. 

Not nearly as bad as Jan 16

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think we just need to wait until the 6th or so and if the 3rd happened to work out then it’s all gravy. 
 

Euro in la la land had a setup I haven’t seen in years. Nrn stream s/w diving sharply south and spawning a nice coastal. When is the last time we saw that?

Honestly prob since Jan 2022 is the last time we saw something like that....and if you want to get specific on the more frigid look, it's prob been since 1/4/18 since we saw that look.

Obviously those were both KU storms, and it's irresponsible to say we'll repeat, but that's the type of longwave flow you want to see for that type of higher end potential. But all of us would even take a run-of-the-mill 6-12" coastal right now. Hopefully we see some specific threats become more coherent on guidance as we get closer. It would suck if we can't time anything and end up cold/dry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

59 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS seems to focus on Jan 1-2 (warm storm except maybe NNE) and then wait until 1/6 for the next event. GFS suite tries to maybe amplify 1/3 a bit on the heels of the Jan 1 storm. 
 

EPS still looks pretty active in that 1/6-1/10 period. 

I like that its been pushed back a bit....my ETA home from the hospital is probably 1/7.

[WinterWolf]

44 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Now that’s a porking in NW CT. 

They’ve whiffed a lot in the big ones over the last 15-20 years.  They’ve been too far NW for most of them.  That’s why SE areas did so well during that time period. 06 was great here..a two footer.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Honestly prob since Jan 2022 is the last time we saw something like that....and if you want to get specific on the more frigid look, it's prob been since 1/4/18 since we saw that look.

Obviously those were both KU storms, and it's irresponsible to say we'll repeat, but that's the type of longwave flow you want to see for that type of higher end potential. But all of us would even take a run-of-the-mill 6-12" coastal right now. Hopefully we see some specific threats become more coherent on guidance as we get closer. It would suck if we can't time anything and end up cold/dry.

Go figure...my main analog....but as we saw in March 2023, no one will care unless it produces.

[WinterWolf]

34 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Not nearly as bad as Jan 16

That was more because that was a mid Atlantic monster. I had about 10-11 inches from that Jan 16 storm, and I was on the extreme northern fringe of the heavy stuff. Once north of here, it was like the amounts fell off the cliff. South of here they went up like a rocket.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Good times ahead in the upper levels. Looks great.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good times ahead in the upper levels. Looks great.

Cruely operative...lol

I think this will produce, though.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Good times ahead in the upper levels. Looks great.

Again, all here realize that if it doesn’t produce anything, it’s all a waste.  But I think we’d all rather have this look the way it does, than not.  
 

Everybody is aware that this doesn’t guarantee a thing. But I’m thankful , as are others, that we can at least discuss the potential, and hope as Will said that we can get something to develop, and not go frigid and dry.  But it is always a possibility, that we all are aware of. 

[WxWatcher007]

19 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That was more because that was a mid Atlantic monster. I had about 10-11 inches from that Jan 16 storm, and I was on the extreme northern fringe of the heavy stuff. Once north of here, it was like the amounts fell off the cliff. South of here they went up like a rocket.  

I believe I measured 22” in DC proper in that one. It was an exceptional storm but interestingly I don’t think I recorded a single 1” per hour rate. 

10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cruely operative...lol

I think this will produce, though.

I’m cautiously optimistic. That said, I don’t think we can afford to produce relative futility by mid January and expect to have a near normal snowfall season. I don’t think this February will be as favorable as December has been and January is likely to be. 

[dryslot]

You cant deny that look @H5.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You cant deny that look @H5.

No, you certainly can’t.  Now we need it to bear some good fruit. 

[DJln491]

both 6z gfs and euro bring the 12/31 -1/1 system pretty well south, gives some snow /mix to NNE and then tries to get others involved on the back end on 1/1.  would be nice to see that trend continue and at least NNE cash in on that one

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

40 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Cruely operative...lol

I think this will produce, though.

Yea. I’ll hedge on a sne event after 1/5.

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

both 6z gfs and euro bring the 12/31 -1/1 system pretty well south, gives some snow /mix to NNE and then tries to get others involved on the back end on 1/1.  would be nice to see that trend continue and at least NNE cash in on that one

I think we'd want for 12/30 to phase more and be a deeper system as it cuts inalnd and that would push the boundary further south for 1/1. I think SNE is pretty cooked on 1/1, but NNE has a shot maybe. I suppose if it trended hard enough, we couldn't rule out rain changing to snow over the interior in SNE, but it's a long shot.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Like the look still after the 5th or so. 3rd still in play too although airmass is iffy. But man I can’t hate on this upcoming pattern. 

Yeah... I have to fly out to Florida from 1/2-1/5... So I'm hoping to be back for what changes we may be seeing. If you guys can squeeze something out 1/3, then I'll have some things good to see when I'm back. Fingers are crossed for what's being modeled 

 

 

[ice1972]

11 hours ago, GCWarrior said:

We had some biggies near here in the early 2010s.  Boxing Day, Jan 2011, Oct 2011. Pretty substantial. 

Boxing Day was trash….

[PWMan]

Wouldn't be a New England ski season without a rainer all the way through the NNE mountains during the holiday vacation week.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

15 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Boxing Day was trash….

For the CRV it was hours of arctic sand.  Brutal.  4-5” of crap that weighed like lead in the shovel. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I believe I measured 22” in DC proper in that one. It was an exceptional storm but interestingly I don’t think I recorded a single 1” per hour rate. 

I’m cautiously optimistic. That said, I don’t think we can afford to produce relative futility by mid January and expect to have a near normal snowfall season. I don’t think this February will be as favorable as December has been and January is likely to be. 

No, but I don't think it will be a complete trainwreck, either.