Jester January

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm kind of liking the fact that the Euro does have the storm staying close to us. It didn't have it at all with the last one and it was right. So I do feel more confident that we'll have something. Now the question is what.

The key is consistency....it DID have the last system, but wasn't consistent.

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The key is consistency....it DID have the last system, but wasn't consistent.

I agree, it did have it but much further back from when the storm was supposed to hit. It lost it at least a week out from the storm, and stayed that way. It was the GFS that had the storm raging about 5 or 6 days before , to then lose it. I get the frustration from everyone. Feels like every time there's a possibility we lose it. Hence the pessimism. Got to keep the hope alive. Why do you think everyone keeps coming back. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

I agree, it did have it but much further back from when the storm was supposed to hit. It lost it at least a week out from the storm, and stayed that way. It was the GFS that had the storm raging about 5 or 6 days before , to then lose it. I get the frustration from everyone. Feels like every time there's a possibility we lose it. Hence the pessimism. Got to keep the hope alive LOL

Yea...may have had a run at day 6, but pretty much.

[Prismshine Productions]

I blame Aaron Rodgers

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think in terms of intensity, it usually delivers....but the issue that the fast flow is resulting in deconstructive interference the vast majority of the time, which has inhibited both a timely and proficient phase, as well as the  ability of precipitation to work up the coast.

This is precisely why I want to try our luck with the southern stream. I'll be happy to go back to northern stream once we get a good atmospheric shakeup going. This regime we've been in just seems awful to get much help from the northern stream. I we can tell ourselves "just keep giving me chances" to make us feel better but that isn't going to change reality and the reality right now is its is giving us dog ****. I'm down to try something new for a while. If that sucks too...well then I quit.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the EURO AI performed admirably with respect to that fiasco last week, so I would have my eyes on that model.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

This is precisely why I want to try our luck with the southern stream. I'll be happy to go back to northern stream once we get a good atmospheric shakeup going. This regime we've been in just seems awful to get much help from the northern stream. I we can tell ourselves "just keep giving me chances" to make us feel better but that isn't going to change reality and the reality right now is its is giving us dog ****. I'm down to try something new for a while. If that sucks too...well then I quit.

Good luck not having the northern stream play any role whatsoever-

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Good luck not having the northern stream play any role whatsoever-

I mean more southern stream involvement, with a less dominant northern stream. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

I blame Aaron Rodgers

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

How about Sam Darnold... 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I mean more southern stream involvement, with a less dominant northern stream. 

Good luck with that, too.

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about Sam Darnold... 

When I look at the GFS all I see are ghosts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

When I look at the GFS all I see are ghosts. 

I think March is the best shot at having something creep up the coast free of N stream Pass Interference penalties.

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think March is the best shot at having something creep up the coast free of N stream Pass Interference penalties.

I am hoping that we kind of reset this pattern...not lose the pattern outright or go through a full out change but just relax it a bit with a few tweaks and then try again late month and February. 

[Ginx snewx]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think it’s about 12-13$ per month if you go the full year but if you just go on a month by month basis it’s $15 per month. I don’t completely love them because I feel they can add more parameters on regional views but for the price they are decent enough. 
 

Pivotal is easily the best free site…only thing that bugs me with them is their pages just eat up massive amounts of bandwidth. Whether I’m on my computer or iphone, the browser always struggles a bit with pivotal. 

I pay 10 per month for weathermodels.com 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I am hoping that we kind of reset this pattern...not lose the pattern outright or go through a full out change but just relax it a bit with a few tweaks and then try again late month and February. 

That was my thought back in November, but having my doubts....we'll see.

[Typhoon Tip]

this is actually an exceptional overrunning signal...  it's out there at the temporal horizon of the guidance but all three ens means have this implication of deep mass loading SE across Canada, while the S/stream turns back ne from deep latitude statically overruns the cold that the upstream flow loads into the GL and inevitably into the NE.  the circumstance of those warmish heights extending from the TV off the m/a western Atlantic is not a warm signal for us in this hemisphere below -

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this is actually an exceptional overrunning signal...  it's out there at the temporal horizon of the guidance but all three ens means have this implication of deep mass loading SE across Canada, while the S/stream statically overruns.  those warmish heights extending from the TV off the m/a western Atlantic is not a warm signal for us in this hemisphere below -

So what you were trying to say wassssss.................

[jbenedet]

The problem with Monday is the ensembles are showing an open frontal wave, fast flow with North/south orientation. 

It's mid January so there will be a stripe of 1-6" snow somewhere (my guess is far interior) but this is a shit event by our climate standards, verbatim. 

[Snowcrazed71]

11 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The problem with Monday is the ensembles are showing an open frontal wave, fast flow with North/south orientation. 

It's mid January so there will be a stripe of 1-6" snow somewhere (my guess is far interior) but this is a shit event by our climate standards, verbatim. 

Not sure I agree with your far interior comment. Not for the Sunday night into Monday timeframe.... If we get this storm, it will be Snow ( at least for CT )

[Typhoon Tip]

37 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The problem with Monday is the ensembles are showing an open frontal wave, fast flow with North/south orientation. 

It's mid January so there will be a stripe of 1-6" snow somewhere (my guess is far interior) but this is a shit event by our climate standards, verbatim. 

it's an overrunning vulnerability e of buff's ~ longitude from my take. 

it's been looking like that for days of modeling to me. the basic synopsis from 144 thru ..i dunno, day 10-ish, the entire region e of buff and down the ec is quite sensitive to blossoming qpf fields. 

when the angle of the 700 to 500 mb layer is modeled as paralleling the surface to 850 mb baroclinic axis (approximately from coastal GA to e of cape cod by 144+ ) the model in question does less or nothing. 

when the modeled flow in the mid level veers even slightly more s (i.e., going back over the boundary) you get the 00z GGEM solution types. 

it's like a head game in the models of creating enough geophysical instability to detonate the planet into an asteroid ring, and just leave it there in stasis with no trigger - no consequence. LOL

that seems a bit difficult to succeed in doing.  hyperbole aside, philosophically we get to a point of such excessive volatility, any perturbations at very small scales probably emerge something ... and those triggers are too small, beneath the resolution of the mid range/global solution machinery.

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

33 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

So what you were trying to say wassssss.................

what?   nothing difficult in the passage

okay i put another statement in there - maybe that'll help

[Snowcrazed71]

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

what?   nothing difficult in the passage

okay i put another statement in there - maybe that'll help

Ya know I was kidding, right! 

I appreciate your input ( just took me some time to get used to it ) ....  :-)

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Ya know I was kidding, right! 

I appreciate your input ( just took me some time to get used to it ) ....  :-)

you shouldn't have to 'get use to' anything  -

good writing is awareness of the audience, because what's the point of writing if the communication does not take place. 

this is a tricky prospect in here though, because if we wanna actually talk theoretical weather -related stuff,  you have to "talk theoretical" - I don't invent terms like "geostrophic balance" or "positive vorticity advection"  or "velocity absorbing the s/w" because the former is a gradient problem that suppresses the latter ...   it's just what these terms have been long codified to mean.  

the problem there is that there has to be some level of understanding, if even responsibility to engage with this stuff. or else this really is just a pointless waste of time endeavor, because for malcontents on the spectrum...? good luck  

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you shouldn't have to 'get use to' anything  -

good writing is awareness of the audience, because what's the point of writing if the communication does not take place. 

this is a tricky prospect in here though, because if we wanna actually talk theoretical weather -related stuff,  you have to "talk theoretical" - I don't invent terms like "geostrophic balance" or "positive vorticity advection"  or "velocity absorbing" the s/w between the former is a gradient problem that suppresses the latter ...   it's just what these terms have been long codified to mean.  

the problem there is that there has to be some level of understanding this stuff, or else this really is just a pointless endeavor, because for malcontents on the spectrum... good luck  

Lol... Man.. Take a compliment. No explanation is needed. Just thanking you in my in own way. 

[FXWX]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you shouldn't have to 'get use to' anything  -

good writing is awareness of the audience, because what's the point of writing if the communication does not take place. 

this is a tricky prospect in here though, because if we wanna actually talk theoretical weather -related stuff,  you have to "talk theoretical" - I don't invent terms like "geostrophic balance" or "positive vorticity advection"  or "velocity absorbing the s/w" because the former is a gradient problem that suppresses the latter ...   it's just what these terms have been long codified to mean.  

the problem there is that there has to be some level of understanding this stuff, or else this really is just a pointless endeavor, because for malcontents on the spectrum... good luck  

Tip... A successful winter posting style in this forum usually involves using one or more of the following terms; nape, increasing sun angle, increasing daylight period, winter is "a percent % of your choice and/or fake cold... Lol

[Chrisrotary12]

3 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said:

All I can say about the 6z GFS:


Augusta, Savannah, and Charleston won't have a good time

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Meaning neither will we

[Hazey]

12z Icon looking good. See what the rest of the model suites say. Lets keep that support going. 

[Chrisrotary12]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Tip... A successful winter posting style in this forum usually involves using one or more of the following terms; nape, increasing sun angle, increasing daylight period, winter is "a percent % of your choice and/or fake cold... Lol

You forgot beer. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

You forgot beer. 

and an attached snow map 

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about Sam Darnold... 

You can take the QB out of the Jets but you can't take the Jets out of the QB.