Jester January

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

days and days... until it's inside D10 

Something has to give. It just has to. 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Something has to give. It just has to. 

Nope, doesn't work that way.

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

Overrunning when we’re on the right side of the gradient is perhaps my favorite pattern.   See dec 1970 and the winter of Leon.

See dead rats the past umpteenth winters.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Days and days at the end of the gfs.

[Damage In Tolland]

 

[kdxken]

Finally cleared enough to see the Wolfie Moon. Must be a sign of big snows . Although it's not a sure thing. Nobody knows...

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Nope, doesn't work that way.

But, it does and can. Not saying it is, but, I can't see us getting through next week and not scoring with a storm next Monday. It's a wait and see. It's not a definite, but it's not a no either 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

But, it does and can. Not saying it is, but, I can't see us getting through next week and not scoring with a storm next Monday. It's a wait and see. It's not a definite, but it's not a no either 

are you saying we just don't know yet?  

[forkyfork]

so does the yore talk mean you admit climate change is real 

[Go Kart Mozart]

1 minute ago, forkyfork said:

so does the yore talk mean you admit climate change is real 

Can we all start calling it what it is?  GLOBAL WARMING!  "Climate change" is such a wishy-washy BS term.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, DavisStraight said:

We had a great overrunning even in January 94, started at 2 degrees with snizzle, changed to rain eventually at night but still in the 20s and the roads were all ice, turned back to snow overnight for a couple inches, nastiest storm I remember.

That event dropped 18 inches in Boston.

[weathafella]

18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

so does the yore talk mean you admit climate change is real 

As far as I can tell one hungry wolf doubts it.

[weathafella]

31 minutes ago, kdxken said:

See dead rats the past umpteenth winters.

Umpteenth?  Were you here in 2021-22?  4 events of significance and 30% above normal for Boston and metro west.   2020-2- wasn’t bad.  Big event in December and good February.   Past 2 years (possibly 3 when we tally up 2024-25) were rats.

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

are you saying we just don't know yet?  

Yep! 

[kdxken]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Umpteenth?  Were you here in 2021-22?  4 events of significance and 30% above normal for Boston and metro west.   2020-2- wasn’t bad.  Big event in December and good February.   Past 2 years (possibly 3 when we tally up 2024-25) were rats.

3 years falls in the rat category.

[weathafella]

Just now, kdxken said:

3 years falls in the rat category.

Well tbf this year isnt done yet but probably.  Although what’s a rat?  To me under 30 at BOS.

[Prismshine Productions]

18z Skynet is a Bills field goal in the Super Bowl

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

3 years falls in the rat category.

Probably because we were on the wrong side of the gradient.

[Prismshine Productions]

Meanwhile the Euro Weeklies delay the warm up again

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Meanwhile the Euro Weeklies delay the warm up again

Any snow maps from the CFS?

[HIPPYVALLEY]

27 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Can we all start calling it what it is?  GLOBAL WARMING!  "Climate change" is such a wishy-washy BS term.

Well, until the warming turns to rapid cooling.  So, climate change fits better.

[kdxken]

12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well tbf this year isnt done yet but probably.  Although what’s a rat?  To me under 30 at BOS.

I don't know a thousand days without a 4-in snow. Finally broke the streak with a 5-incher. That says extended rat to me.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Meanwhile the Euro Weeklies delay the warm up again

Jester weeklies?

[Hoth]

10 minutes ago, kdxken said:

I don't know a thousand days without a 4-in snow. Finally broke the streak with a 5-incher. That says extended rat to me.

Back out 2021 and I'm averaging around 13" a season. It's a rat decade so far.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

37 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Meanwhile the Euro Weeklies delay the warm up again

At least we have heating bills to look forward too!

[Prismshine Productions]

At least we have heating bills to look forward too!

Don't remind me man...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, forkyfork said:

so does the yore talk mean you admit climate change is real 

Everybody knows climate change in real... been happening for millions of years 

[alex]

Dumping. Another little overperfomer 

 

 

[ariof]

3 minutes ago, alex said:

Dumping. Another little overperfomer 

 

 

A rare year where the west side of the mountain has better snow than the east.

[ncforecaster89]

As I’ve mentioned repeatedly on my Twitter account (since late December), I’ve always favored the forthcoming period of 1/19 to 2/3 for the greatest potential (enhanced probability) of getting a major east coast storm.  
 

This long range expectation has been, and continues to be, based on the premise that the majority of MECS’ have occurred during a period when a highly favorable background state begins to see a pattern relaxation.  Does that mean there will definitely be a MECS at that time? Of course not. However, I do believe it provides an increased probability of its occurrence.  
 

For definitive purposes, I should note that I’m specifically taking about the prospects for a MECS somewhere between NC and SNE or actually encompassing both the Mid-Atlantic and NE regions.  It'd be foolish to be more precise than that beyond a 7 day time frame, so I’ll just leave it at that that until we get closer in time.