Jester January

[Typhoon Tip]

This 12z GFS run is about the perfect scenario for the type of pattern.   We're unlikely to manifest majors in that high speed compression, so this run is both nearly ideal in placement - given to the narrowing impact corridor - while also probably ceiling intensity under the circumstances

[Damage In Tolland]

I have yet to figure out what Jester January means. Am I alone on that? 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

I have yet to figure out what Jester January means. Am I alone on that? 

Nope.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have yet to figure out what Jester January means. Am I alone on that? 

Maybe she's into Insane Clown Posse?

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just calculated my mean seasonal snowfall for the 2012-2013 through 2023-2024 season (last year)...60.5". Regression is over for me, so if this season blows, it should begin going back in the other direction.

I would have to think that in the next winter or two we regress back towards average-to-above average snowfall seasons for the region as a whole. I hope to God it's next winter...and there is still time this winter. We can't discount getting crushed in a 4-6 week period during February or March. But if we go another 2 winters like this I am going to become very concerned. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would have to think that in the next winter or two we regress back towards average-to-above average snowfall seasons for the region as a whole. I hope to God it's next winter...and there is still time this winter. We can't discount getting crushed in a 4-6 week period during February or March. But if we go another 2 winters like this I am going to become very concerned. 

I think if we get a modest El Niño next season, it would bode very well for us.....TBH, 2014-2015 maybe a good analog. (Not implying 100").

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think we have already stated to see the beginning of the end of this longer term Pacific pattern, and will continue to see big changes throughout the 2nd half of this decade.

[Prismshine Productions]

Maybe she's into Insane Clown Posse?

I am actually!

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I would have to think that in the next winter or two we regress back towards average-to-above average snowfall seasons for the region as a whole. I hope to God it's next winter...and there is still time this winter. We can't discount getting crushed in a 4-6 week period during February or March. But if we go another 2 winters like this I am going to become very concerned. 

Mmm... I find it personally more difficult do that anymore.   Increasingly more difficult to employ the " ... I would think .." approach in any contexts where climate is the artist painting a vision of the future -

why?   ... duh.  Yeah, "I would think" that answer precedes the question.  LOL

So, we can certainly argue that the climate change is not so far along that we can't regress - but, in your context above, it doesn't sound or come across like regression?   It sounds like an expectation of a normalcy, ... perhaps event that "owed" fallacy.  

Maybe, but frankly, we have to start considering that, out here in the objective reality, cc is not just occurring but the empirical data in the ambit of the science is clearly observing it as accelerating.  

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe she's into Insane Clown Posse?

Jester the molestor? 

[Cold Miser]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe she's into Insane Clown Posse?

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I just calculated my mean seasonal snowfall for the 2012-2013 through 2023-2024 season (last year)...60.5". Regression is over for me, so if this season blows, it should begin going back in the other direction.

 

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... I find it personally more difficult do that anymore.   Increasingly more difficult to employ the " ... I would think .." approach in any contexts where climate is the artist painting a vision of the future -

why?   ... duh.  Yeah, "I would think" that answer precedes the question.  LOL

So, we can certainly argue that the climate change is not so far along that we can't regress - but, in your context above, it doesn't sound or come across like regression?   It sounds like an expectation of a normalcy, ... perhaps event that "owed" fallacy.  

Maybe, but frankly, we have to start considering that, out here in the objective reality, cc is not just occurring but the empirical data in the ambit of the science is clearly observing it as accelerating.  

 

 

We aren't there yet IMO....you also have to factor in that this year has in fact deviated from the prohibitively warm regime.

[Sn0waddict]

Pretty nice CMC run as well. 

[weatherwiz]

18 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think if we get a modest El Niño next season, it would bode very well for us.....TBH, 2014-2015 maybe a good analog. (Not implying 100").

Honestly, I'm rooting for a good 3-5 year period of ENSO neutral at this point  

[DJln491]

28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have yet to figure out what Jester January means. Am I alone on that? 

both words starts with J thats about it.  next up, Flaccid February

[dendrite]

The title has grown on me. It fits the month so far. Duped by a favorable longwave pattern that only delivers for the MA and SE. 

[Kitz Craver]

Perfect title. A Jester tricks, pretty good trick having this cold and not much snow to show for it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

6 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

both words starts with J thats about it.  next up, Flaccid February

Forgetful February

Frustrating February 

Fookin' February

We could go on (although I think it produces)

[Prismshine Productions]

both words starts with J thats about it.  next up, Flaccid February

Mine would had been Flippant February

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[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think we have already stated to see the beginning of the end of this longer term Pacific pattern, and will continue to see big changes throughout the 2nd half of this decade.

Pacific has been vastly different so far this winter than the last few. We’ve obviously been screwed for snowfall but it isn’t because there’s been a severe lack of cold around. It hasn’t been frigid (that might change soon) but we don’t need frigid to snow here. Just lots of seasonal cold which has been present. 

[weatherwiz]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Mmm... I find it personally more difficult do that anymore.   Increasingly more difficult to employ the " ... I would think .." approach in any contexts where climate is the artist painting a vision of the future -

why?   ... duh.  Yeah, "I would think" that answer precedes the question.  LOL

So, we can certainly argue that the climate change is not so far along that we can't regress - but, in your context above, it doesn't sound or come across like regression?   It sounds like an expectation of a normalcy, ... perhaps event that "owed" fallacy.  

Maybe, but frankly, we have to start considering that, out here in the objective reality, cc is not just occurring but the empirical data in the ambit of the science is clearly observing it as accelerating.  

 

 

I am with you on the "you would think approach". I try not to think like that or present that anymore. 

You're right though. And the most difficult part of all this is trying to tie climate change, whether it be locally, regionally, or globally. What becomes even more difficult is we can only work with data we have and in a large sense, the sample sizes are small and alot of data is reconstructed so there needs to be some caution with how that data is being used and compared. 

When I was heavily tacking ENSO composites a few years back, I was incorporating the Ensemble ONI and reading alot of the work Eric Webb and others had done with ENSO. When alot of people talk about ENSO everything is geared towards the CPC ONI but there is a while other world of ideas and methodologies on ENSO. The Ensemble ONI re-constructed ENSO events back to like the 1860's or maybe 1830's. I only went back to 1900 when doing composites but one thing I really noticed was (and there has been lots of literature on this) is how the behavior of ENSO events have changed since about the 1970's or 1980's. If you look at individual events and compare to a long-term mean, there are some striking differences in behavior. But what does this really mean? At the end of the day, at least with ENSO, we will continue to witness behaviors that go against the mean but is that for a specific reason or is it because it's just another playing card we haven't seen before? 

Regardless though there is certainly some influence on climate change going on, it's just how big of an influence is it? I mean all you have to do is go back to the basics of atmospheric physics, atmospheric chemistry, and meteorology 151 to understand and see this. Wildfire smoke and volcanic eruptions have to play some sort of roll too, all those chemicals being emitted into the atmosphere, especially if these chemicals are being entrained into the stratosphere. This would surely have an impact on ozone production or depletion. 

Obviously we've gone through some brutal snow drought periods before and one of those is the 80's which is often referenced. But I guess at the end of the day we need to look at, what was the driver behind those periods and how does it compare to what is going on now? 

[Hailstoned]

36 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have yet to figure out what Jester January means. Am I alone on that? 

To me it's a rather poetic (and prophetic) way of saying that typical January winter conditions, re. snow along with the cold are "in jest," as in a promise not honored. Which is "jest" as January has turned out so far!

[Damage In Tolland]

Yeah..  it’s coming .

[MJO812]

Ukie coming up

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

What the hell even happened? Did models just miss that bastard s/w that screwed things up last second or just having to face the hard facts of a fast flow in the current climate regime?

Only one model really ever had it, THAT'S the problem. Sure the Euro had it for like one run... but there wasn't a ton of support especially once we got into the period when we should be tracking anyways (inside 4-5 days)

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie coming up

At minimum at the moment I like the idea of at least a close call near 160-180.  The main two ways it can go sour is probably first wave is too strong or the ensuing cold push from the Plains/MW is too strong and presses farther south.

[NorEastermass128]

BL may be an issue for coastal zones, but this looks like a light to moderate event just off the water. A refresher of sorts. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Only one model really ever had it, THAT'S the problem. Sure the Euro had it for like one run... but there wasn't a ton of support especially once we got into the period when we should be tracking anyways (inside 4-5 days)

Euro had it for a few runs, but they weren't consecutive. 

[Kitz Craver]

44 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

Pretty nice CMC run as well. 

CMC focuses on the follow up wave, GFS the one prior. 

[Cyclone-68]

Promise of snow and a competent football head coach in place. The future is positive