Jester January

[tamarack]

On 1/12/2025 at 8:45 AM, kdxken said:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/2025/01/07/magazine/cochrans-ski-area-beating-odds/?event=event12

I'm too cheap to buy into the Globe, but found Snow Valley on G.E.  Trails mostly grown in and looks like only the foundation remains from the lodge.  (2022 imagery)
I can remember seeing the upper trails of Bromley seeming close enough that skiers there could lob snowballs down on us. 
(Those trails were about 2.5 miles away.  )

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, 512high said:

Maybe there is hope for timeframe on 20-22nd , after that cold air and dry? 

I'm not saying there is zero chance of snow for the balance of January....but the way this season has gone, I'm not not getting my hopes up unless we are at least inside of 4 days. Seems as though there is a moderate ceiling there for the 20th, so if absolutely everything breaks right, maybe we enter February in double-digits.

[alex]

Hey it's snowing again.

I think this makes it day 8 of measurable snow. Not bad for not a stellar winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Who knows what to think anymore. I think I am still upset over last winter as a whole and upset about that February event that I got screwed in but I really thought last winter was going to produce. I had zero expectations coming into this winter because I just didn't really get the opportunity to explore long-range, plus I wanted to tackle that from a whole different direction. Things could absolutely change moving into February and we could get crushed but its just been another deflating winter. It's almost as if we can't buy a large-scale synoptic weather event anymore...everything is mesoscale driven or topoggraphic...the upslope snows up north, the inverted trough over the weekend, some LES streamers which have made their way in.

I'm trying to post less these days because not much of it would be constructive....just so fed up with the weather.

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

False. I made it abundantly clear that some light snows were still possible from the northern stream, but I had zero interest in it. This really isn't that confusing. Its mid January and my seasonal total wouldn't muster a warning event.....immensely frustrating first half and Saturday hasn't changed that.

Nobody’s confused. Glad you got the snow Saturday.  So now we track and see what the next potential can muster. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm trying to post less these days because not much of it would be constructive....just so fed up with the weather.

I can understand that completely.  I still don’t think this winter rats out…just a feeling. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm trying to post less these days because not much of it would be constructive....just so fed up with the weather.

It's been difficult, but I think alot of us are our own worst enemy in that regard. We're looking at OP runs and SLP charts for 200+ hours out and if one OP run shows a storm, all of a sudden there is a "threat". Forecasting in the 7-10+ day range the last several years has been absolutely brutal. The Ensembles are helping either, and in fact, they're making matters only worse at times. While ensembles are critical in medium range forecasting I think sometimes they're weighted too heavily, especially when it comes to the probabilistic sense. I get in this field, there is a huge push towards going the probabilistic route, however, I don't like it at all. We see 60% ensemble probs of 5" 6 days out and are going, "That's a strong signal by the ensembles" and then its off to the races. Sure 60% of anything at 5-6 days out is great, but that 60% is driven based on what the outputs are...if the outputs start going to crap, so do the probabilities. 

I get there is fun in tracking storms or talking about storms at D10+...I mean this is a weather community and where else would we go to discuss this stuff and have fun? But it's gotten to the point where unrealistic expectations are being created and we're bleeding fantasy and fun with reality and it leads to the back-and-forth wars. 

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Stuff that had no water content and direct sun near 32f will melt no matter what.

Maybe.  Saturday's 1" of 17:1 fluff survived Sunday's 30° with full sun, though it settled some.  Same conditions a month from now and the new snow would be gone.

[weathafella]

46 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

... that you squandered and failed the test anyway the next day ?

No!  The class didn’t meet again for 2 more days and I aced it.  Those were years when winter was winter!

[40/70 Benchmark]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I can understand that completely.  I still don’t think this winter rats out…just a feeling. 

It certainly shouldn't rat out on paper, but it does have kind of a 1979-1980 vibe...

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Maybe.  Saturday's 1" of 17:1 fluff survived Sunday's 30° with full sun, though it settled some.  Same conditions a month from now and the new snow would be gone.

Hours of srly exposure on the ground would take care of that around here. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I remember that one.  I was a junior in HS and we got a rare snow day.  Back then snow had to be pretty big to close schools.  Thing is it I had an exam and was unprepared so the snow day was a gift.

About 15" of powder at my NNJ home.  While ice fishing nearby a couple days later, I saw 2 snowmobiles come over the low hill and onto the lake - 1st ones I'd seen.  1963-64 was a sneaky good winter, with a white Christmas (7" on 12/23) and a late Feb rain forecast turning into a 10" dump.  It ended on a sour note - I was babysitting 4 kids on 3/21 with a WSW posted and was watching all evening as the storm mucked about with no accum.  Parents got home at 2 AM (as planned) and by then it was S+ with 1"+ paste on the roads.  I slept until 10 AM, got up and looked out to see how much had fallen after I'd gone to bed.  Saw . . . nothing.  Upper 40s and full spring sun had melted everything but a few patches behind the larger trees - bummed.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

It's been difficult, but I think alot of us are our own worst enemy in that regard. We're looking at OP runs and SLP charts for 200+ hours out and if one OP run shows a storm, all of a sudden there is a "threat". Forecasting in the 7-10+ day range the last several years has been absolutely brutal. The Ensembles are helping either, and in fact, they're making matters only worse at times. While ensembles are critical in medium range forecasting I think sometimes they're weighted too heavily, especially when it comes to the probabilistic sense. I get in this field, there is a huge push towards going the probabilistic route, however, I don't like it at all. We see 60% ensemble probs of 5" 6 days out and are going, "That's a strong signal by the ensembles" and then its off to the races. Sure 60% of anything at 5-6 days out is great, but that 60% is driven based on what the outputs are...if the outputs start going to crap, so do the probabilities. 

I get there is fun in tracking storms or talking about storms at D10+...I mean this is a weather community and where else would we go to discuss this stuff and have fun? But it's gotten to the point where unrealistic expectations are being created and we're bleeding fantasy and fun with reality and it leads to the back-and-forth wars. 

Dude, I have 5.5" halfway through winter and I average 62-63".

That Jan 11 potential was not just modelology.....that was an incredibly prominent signal that had enormous tele connector support...many pro mets compared it to March 1993-east.

[CoastalWx]

It had support, but literally just the GFS op. I don't know....I did think in my gut something would come about....but I was spooked by the Euro op, EPS, and even the GEFS. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That Jan 11 potential was not just modelology.....that was an incredibly prominent signal that had enormous tele connector support...many pro mets compared it to March 1993-east.

What the hell even happened? Did models just miss that bastard s/w that screwed things up last second or just having to face the hard facts of a fast flow in the current climate regime?

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Dude, I have 5.5" halfway through winter and I averag 62-63".

That Jan 11 potential was not just modelology.....that was an incredibly prominent signal that had enormous tele connector support...many pro mets compared it to March 1993-east.

Where did I argue against that? I've said several times weeks back I liked that period too. 

[Snowcrazed71]

It's truly a suck ass Winter for most of us so far I'm SNE... Lower New York area ( even areas like Maine )..ext... 

I've had my pity party and frustrations for the " Lack " of Snow. But, saying I will step away is like saying I'm going to stop going to work. Lol

Keeping the hope alive that something will give and squeeze through this strange pattern we are in. 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Where did I argue against that? I've said several times weeks back I liked that period too. 

He's just fed up and frustrated. Like most of us. We need that one storm to revive our faith and excitement in what most of us would like to see.... Fingers crossed it's not too late. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Where did I argue against that? I've said several times weeks back I liked that period too. 

I think in general people get too invested in long range guidance, but I thought it was warranted last week.

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

He's just fed up and frustrated. Like most of us. We need that one storm to revive our faith and excitement in what most of us would like to see.... Fingers crossed it's not too late. 

We need a complete hemispheric or even global shakeup. We'll get out of this like we have before but the last several years have been awful, granted better for some versus others, but its been horrid. Doesn't matter the ENSO state, doesn't matter how the NAO or AO has evolved or what phase they're in, doesn't matter what the PNA, EPO, etc. have done. There is clearly some sort of background state that, no matter how things look in the extended, the end result in something that verifies shitty. What that is, why that is, no clue. We've had a tendency to have everything evolve into cutters when we get phasing or a tendency for just OTS crap without phasing. 

[weatherwiz]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think in general people get too invested in long range guidance, but I thought it was warranted last week.

I am in agreement with that. 

[doug1991]

14 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's truly a suck ass Winter for most of us so far I'm SNE... Lower New York area ( even areas like Maine )..ext... 

I've had my pity party and frustrations for the " Lack " of Snow. But, saying I will step away is like saying I'm going to stop going to work. Lol

Keeping the hope alive that something will give and squeeze through this strange pattern we are in. 

Many Parts of Maine are going on 5+ years of well below average snowfall. Its unbelievable. 

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, tamarack said:

About 15" of powder at my NNJ home.  While ice fishing nearby a couple days later, I saw 2 snowmobiles come over the low hill and onto the lake - 1st ones I'd seen.  1963-64 was a sneaky good winter, with a white Christmas (7" on 12/23) and a late Feb rain forecast turning into a 10" dump.  It ended on a sour note - I was babysitting 4 kids on 3/21 with a WSW posted and was watching all evening as the storm mucked about with no accum.  Parents got home at 2 AM (as planned) and by then it was S+ with 1"+ paste on the roads.  I slept until 10 AM, got up and looked out to see how much had fallen after I'd gone to bed.  Saw . . . nothing.  Upper 40s and full spring sun had melted everything but a few patches behind the larger trees - bummed.  

Yeah I remember the excitement for 3/21.  The forecasts were so promising!  Light rain fell and I was ridiculed for calling a potential blizzard based on the forecasts.  
 

The first snowmobiles I saw were displayed on campus in Ithaca around 1967.  Skidoo was displaying them.

[weatherwiz]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think in general people get too invested in long range guidance, but I thought it was warranted last week.

I've been really thinking about this and it's been very weird how the last several years we've seen some good looks in the medium and extended range on ensembles but then nothing happens and in some of those situations we ended up not even remotely close to getting anything. I wonder if the overall pattern and pieces within the pattern are just too complex for ensembles. We've seen some very complex patterns with lots of moving pieces and this is where the ensembles smoothing is kind of making things look better than they really are. I mean think of how many good looks we have had which have failed to produce. That isn't a coincidence and it isn't bad luck. Smoothing can be extremely useful but it can also hide the true story. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12z gfs better

[Typhoon Tip]

20th quick moving but solid moderate coastal storm impacting along the i-95 corridor -

not bad for < 7 days ... like to see the ens mean with a f'n clue

[40/70 Benchmark]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It had support, but literally just the GFS op. I don't know....I did think in my gut something would come about....but I was spooked by the Euro op, EPS, and even the GEFS. 

Depends which day....

[Prismshine Productions]

Not bad

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[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I've been really thinking about this and it's been very weird how the last several years we've seen some good looks in the medium and extended range on ensembles but then nothing happens and in some of those situations we ended up not even remotely close to getting anything. I wonder if the overall pattern and pieces within the pattern are just too complex for ensembles. We've seen some very complex patterns with lots of moving pieces and this is where the ensembles smoothing is kind of making things look better than they really are. I mean think of how many good looks we have had which have failed to produce. That isn't a coincidence and it isn't bad luck. Smoothing can be extremely useful but it can also hide the true story. 

I just calculated my mean seasonal snowfall for the 2012-2013 through 2023-2024 season (last year)...60.5". Regression is over for me, so if this season blows, it should begin going back in the other direction.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Not bad

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Nice sucker-hole right where its been since 2018.