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Jester January


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Well, came to Okemo and Bromley this weekend and I have to say was pleasantly surprised. Actually hit some glades - though cover to thin to spend the day in the trees as the roots and stumps were ski grabbing. See snowmobile trails active. That being said there was brown tundra all the way into VT - well into VT in fact so it seems snow cover here is altitude based. Good snow here in Landgrove - probably 8 to 10 inches of powder (granted this time of year should be double or triple that) and real winter feel. Come ski!!! It's good!!!!

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1 minute ago, cut said:

Well, came to Okemo and Bromley this weekend and I have to say was pleasantly surprised. Actually hit some glades - though cover to thin to spend the day in the trees as the roots and stumps were ski grabbing. See snowmobile trails active. That being said there was brown tundra all the way into VT - well into VT in fact so it seems snow cover here is altitude based. Good snow here in Landgrove - probably 8 to 10 inches of powder (granted this time of year should be double or triple that) and real winter feel. Come ski!!! It's good!!!!

Now that Iv'e skied - it's time for golf!!!!

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The models are not showing a gradient pattern like they were once showing. Another suppressive pattern might be in the works after next week with alot of  cold air around .

 

 

 

At least the NAO and AO are rising.  The EPO keeps reloading which keeps the cold intact.

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EPS has a decent signal for MLK. There’s risk for suppression after this weekend, but I’m not totally convinced it will play out given the WAR that develops on pretty much all ensemble guidance. 

The 6z euro slowed down the shortwave behind the cold front. Euro Ai looks pretty similar at 144 and that spacing helped give us a decent scraper.

Here was the Ai trend at H5

bc5e1f3158356d3f9ac2c8a3d11255b0.gif


.
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Just now, Heisy said:


The 6z euro slowed down the shortwave behind the cold front. Euro Ai looks pretty similar at 144 and that spacing helped give us a decent scraper.

Here was the Ai trend at H5

bc5e1f3158356d3f9ac2c8a3d11255b0.gif


.

Yep that’s not far off the EPS. There’s quite a few hits on there. Still relatively low probability at the moment but it looks better than it did yesterday 

image.thumb.png.da84df2d516a0a1be9993282a4962231.png

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The coherence for an event around the 20th took a bit of step toward less overnight ... however, there's just as many odds that it will return. 

Personally, i've been of limited confidence in that, or anything specific at all ...really between the 17th and 26th+, for a basic reason:

It's a very compressed, high speed medium.  events within those also squeeze their impact regions down to narrower corridors.  such that the models have to be pretty precise, at a range whence they are higher error anyway (standard performance) to begin with. 

I'm also personally not a fan of these 6 contoured spv's over lower Hudson Bay, in general.  They tend to be really ominous looking but end up short on production - compression is a way in which super-synoptic aspects are in negative negative interference.  

 

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23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Well you saw the same for this past Saturday, and then you jackedpotted(sure, nothing huge but your area did well). So we all know how these change, especially at 7 days.  Check back in a few days. 

3" didn't intrigue me, so I'm not sure what in the hell your point is.

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4 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I remember that one.  I was a junior in HS and we got a rare snow day.  Back then snow had to be pretty big to close schools.  Thing is it I had an exam and was unprepared so the snow day was a gift.

... that you squandered and failed the test anyway the next day ?

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7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

My point is, you did well relatively speaking on Saturday, when you thought there was nothing there to track.   

False. I made it abundantly clear that some light snows were still possible from the northern stream, but I had zero interest in it. This really isn't that confusing. Its mid January and my seasonal total wouldn't muster a warning event.....immensely frustrating first half and Saturday hasn't changed that.

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11 hours ago, dryslot said:

Same -1F here was the low but the winds stole the show the last 2 weeks.

Thanks to that ceaseless wind (until last Saturday), January here hasn't gone below 2°.  Average maxima running -3° while minima at +4°.   Our coldest came during Dec. 23-27, with lows -6; 12 (with 6.3" fluff); -5; -6; -7

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Who knows what to think anymore. I think I am still upset over last winter as a whole and upset about that February event that I got screwed in but I really thought last winter was going to produce. I had zero expectations coming into this winter because I just didn't really get the opportunity to explore long-range, plus I wanted to tackle that from a whole different direction. Things could absolutely change moving into February and we could get crushed but its just been another deflating winter. It's almost as if we can't buy a large-scale synoptic weather event anymore...everything is mesoscale driven or topoggraphic...the upslope snows up north, the inverted trough over the weekend, some LES streamers which have made their way in.

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