Jester January

[dendrite]

25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Story time with cousin Donnie.

I’ve had the misfortune of canceling winter exceedingly few times in my life. The first was January 2015. Living in DC and watching you all cash in on consecutive weekends while we missed out tore my winter weenie soul from my body. I knew then that my differences with winter were irreconcilable, and I divorced myself from having any faith in it.

It worked. I started The Panic Room and glorious years of soulless winter observation occurred.

I came back home in 2018—just in time for this historic stretch of horrific winter wx and held to my arm’s length treatment of winter tracking. 

But over time, the lies winter whispered in my ear became more sophisticated. The pattern looked extraordinary. The Atlantic would save us. The Pacific would save us. Our latitude would. It was always ten days away and never to be, but the lies in animations were so appealing I began to have hope again.

Until December 2022. The epic pattern that folks tracked for nearly a month led to an all time event in Buffalo, and rain here. I knew then it was time to pull the plug, and I did.

This time it was the cold that seduced me. If we just had cold in place, I was told, eventually something would happen. There was snow on Christmas Eve. Ponds and rivers freezing. Hope in the air. It breathed life into my winter weenie soul once again, only to have the inevitable happen. Another disastrous winter.

In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. 

I made that mistake believing in winter 2024-25. Never again. 
 

 

Rather than crap up threads, I’m just going to go away. 

Seeya tomorrow 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

34 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Story time with cousin Donnie.

I’ve had the misfortune of canceling winter exceedingly few times in my life. The first was January 2015. Living in DC and watching you all cash in on consecutive weekends while we missed out tore my winter weenie soul from my body. I knew then that my differences with winter were irreconcilable, and I divorced myself from having any faith in it.

It worked. I started The Panic Room and glorious years of soulless winter observation occurred.

I came back home in 2018—just in time for this historic stretch of horrific winter wx and held to my arm’s length treatment of winter tracking. 

But over time, the lies winter whispered in my ear became more sophisticated. The pattern looked extraordinary. The Atlantic would save us. The Pacific would save us. Our latitude would. It was always ten days away and never to be, but the lies in animations were so appealing I began to have hope again.

Until December 2022. The epic pattern that folks tracked for nearly a month led to an all time event in Buffalo, and rain here. I knew then it was time to pull the plug, and I did.

This time it was the cold that seduced me. If we just had cold in place, I was told, eventually something would happen. There was snow on Christmas Eve. Ponds and rivers freezing. Hope in the air. It breathed life into my winter weenie soul once again, only to have the inevitable happen. Another disastrous winter.

In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. 

I made that mistake believing in winter 2024-25. Never again. 
 

 

Rather than crap up threads, I’m just going to go away. 

We tried to tell ya pre season but yes, folks need to see it and experience it for themselves before they resign from the APATT team. 

[78Blizzard]

At least we have both the GFS and the Euro agreeing on a storm on day 10, but the h5 differences show a whiff for the GFS and a hit for the Euro.  Even CMC agrees on a storm on day 10.  This may be a first this winter with all 3 showing a storm off the SE coast at day 10.

The Euro has that 2nd wave enhancing things while the GFS sends it ots.  Again, those h5 differences come into play.

At least we have something to track.

 

[WxWatcher007]

21 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We tried to tell ya pre season but yes, folks need to see it and experience it for themselves before they resign from the APATT team. 

It was the cold that got me. Thought we had a chance when December wasn’t +435°. Then we had epic pretty colors at 500 in January and some legitimate storms that all found ways to miss. I was cautiously optimistic, not APATT, but the result was all the same.

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

At least we have both the GFS and the Euro agreeing on a storm on day 10, but the h5 differences show a whiff for the GFS and a hit for the Euro.  Even CMC agrees on a storm on day 10.  This may be a first this winter with all 3 showing a storm off the SE coast at day 10.

The Euro has that 2nd wave enhancing things while the GFS sends it ots.  Again, those h5 differences come into play.

At least we have something to track.

 

what... no -

this has been the case a few times.

[Prismshine Productions]

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

At least we have both the GFS and the Euro agreeing on a storm on day 10, but the h5 differences show a whiff for the GFS and a hit for the Euro.  Even CMC agrees on a storm on day 10.  This may be a first this winter with all 3 showing a storm off the SE coast at day 10.

The Euro has that 2nd wave enhancing things while the GFS sends it ots.  Again, those h5 differences come into play.

At least we have something to track.

 

I think I have a better feeling now because the Euro and CMC are on the same page. I think I'm now gun shy with the GFS regardless of whether it showed a hit or a Miss. The Euro definitely had this last one ( well, it did show a bomb, but it was like 12 days before. It kept The energy held up near the Baja/ Southwest and it ended up being right ). So with that said, I'm feeling more optimistic that we're going to see something this time

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

The only ting more useless than a day 10-11 snow map is a day 10-11 icemap.

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, moneypitmike said:

The only ting more useless than a day 10-11 snow map is a day 10-11 icemap.

name the last time you saw a mean like that from the EPS

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

name the last time you saw a mean like that from the EPS

It’s the first time I’ve ever seen that because I would never even consider looking at a D10 ensemble freezing rain output. 
 

Way too nuanced of a ptype to consider that far out. 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

The only ting more useless than a day 10-11 snow map is a day 10-11 icemap.

Not if you ask DIT...lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I see that ridging though. It could whiff, but that SE ridge isn’t exactly going to have this scoot massively east.

Yea, this is what I was saying earlier this week as I was progressing through the stages of grieving regarding this current mess.....happy to see a WAR pop later this month, as we near peak climo.

[Go Kart Mozart]

Skynet looking good over the next 15 for all of SNE.  Almost all of this is snow.

[weathafella]

35 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

name the last time you saw a mean like that from the EPS

Whiskey?  Moonshine?

[CoastalWx]

An extended EPS mean of freezing rain. Well, that’s a first for me.

[powderfreak]

What the hell is Skynet?  Is that the traffic helicopter on NBC?

[cleetussnow]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

We talked about this.  

[kdxken]

1 hour ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Skynet looking good over the next 15 for all of SNE.  Almost all of this is snow.

How ya like them apples powder freak?

[Prismshine Productions]

What the hell is Skynet?  Is that the traffic helicopter on NBC?

It is the Euro AI

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How ya like them apples powder freak?

Freak the only have not, now that’s something 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, kdxken said:

How ya like them apples powder freak?

Got a lil purple overhead.  I think we’d manage, lol.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Got a lil purple overhead.  I think we’d manage, lol.

We kid, how are conditions?

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Got a lil purple overhead.  I think we’d manage, lol.

At least your qpf is probably all snow

[powderfreak]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

We kid, how are conditions?

Decent, but definitely got skied off today.  Solid crowd today… they did a number on conditions throughout the day in classic New England fashion.  Starts great, ends in flat light and slick.  Snow plots picked up 1.5” today.  Wintry vibe but didn’t do anything to the conditions.

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

What the hell is Skynet?  Is that the traffic helicopter on NBC?

Et tu, Brute? Do we need to explain the Terminator again?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Drove by Ski Ward, a tiny hill in Shrewsbury that a lot of kids learn at.  Place looked packed.  Great to see. 

[78Blizzard]

That storm the GFS had at 12z for day 10 going ots doesn't even exist on this run.     

[Snowcrazed71]

50 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

That storm the GFS had at 12z for day 10 going ots doesn't even exist on this run.     

Good!! Not worried at this point

[kdxken]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Drove by Ski Ward, a tiny hill in Shrewsbury that a lot of kids learn at.  Place looked packed.  Great to see. 

That's awesome. Used to ski all those little places on my ski team when I was a kid. Practiced at Blue Hill and Klein innsbrook in Franklin. So many little places back then. We raced at Prospect Hill in Waltham, Nashoba, Wachusett, Mount Watonic, Boston Hill in Andover, so many more that I can't remember...

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, kdxken said:

That's awesome. Used to ski all those little places on my ski team when I was a kid. Practiced at Blue Hill and Klein innsbrook in Franklin. So many little places back then. We raced at Prospect Hill in Waltham, Nashoba, Wachusett, Mount Watonic, Boston Hill in Andover, so many more that I can't remember...

Something like 600 ski areas in New England have gone by the wayside. Love seeing the little ones that keep on chugging along.