CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 01:37 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:37 PM Not even 2” here in season. Absolutely horrific Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 01:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:47 PM We watch day 9-10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted Saturday at 01:52 PM Share Posted Saturday at 01:52 PM 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We watch day 9-10 We whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:00 PM 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We watch day 9-10 WATDA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:06 PM 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: We whiff Yeah you might. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 02:13 PM Share Posted Saturday at 02:13 PM 25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We watch day 9-10 Icestorm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoCORH4L Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM Share Posted Saturday at 03:20 PM Go for the futility record at this point? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Saturday at 04:03 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:03 PM 3 hours ago, wdrag said: Modeling for the past several days suggests one or possibly two hazard events for a large portions of the NYC subforum, maybe excluding e LI? Headline has a large 4 day period for possibilities and cant be sure of anything except that precipitation will occur. Fast flow-thread the needle timing in the climatologically coldest time of the year with cold air nearby to draw into whatever low pressure systems approach. Hopefully this will not be 30+ pages of less than normal snowfall in CP. Daily CP norms (averaged out) are 0.3"/day. Am suggesting CP has a chance to stick 1-2" sometime in this period as modeling proposes 1/4-3/4" qpf in this time frame with temps at times below freezing. Ensemble temps tend to favor coldest temps in this thread periodJan 21-22. Most favored area for snow and ice continues as usual inland from I95, especially the I84 corridor (our nw-ne suburbs). Not looking like a major storm as of this 1/11 starter thread but annoying minor to possibly moderate impact 1-6" amounts of snow and a period of icing, especially interior just west of I95 through the I84 corridor Monday-Tuesday the 20th-21st. Another shot of reinforcing wind driven cold should follow around the 22nd? ICE: added EPS ice QPF here with several 12z/00z cycles of the EPS are offering glaze in the interior even near NYC which subdues the EPS expected snowfall. Ignore the NC ice which occurred earlier today.... and the qpf amounts need to are shaved by maybe 70% for reasonable glaze thickness. Am aware its fast flow and the lack of blocking could result in a failed thread but so far there is chatter and thought it good to pull the chatter off the January thread into one more focused thread. More snow opportunities Jan 25th onward as already suggested in the Jan thread. Added ensemble more conservative snow depth change for back checks on 1/22 to see how much this thread failed. We have to remember that the max snow axis error on multi ensemble agreed max qpf and snowfall can be in error by maybe 200 miles at Day 10. Graphics cleaned up at 735A/11. Great discussion from Walt of upcoming possibilities 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:04 PM 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: Icestorm You'll have your ice storm at some point over the next few decades... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 04:34 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:34 PM 1 hour ago, NoCORH4L said: Go for the futility record at this point? Ya, Cuz it’s so late in the season being it’s 1/11 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:51 PM Gfs buries NC lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Saturday at 04:53 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:53 PM Just now, CoastalWx said: Gfs buries NC lol. CMC buries us day 10+ nice set up.. something big overrunning snow wise seems likely. Whether it’s NNE us or the Mid Atlantic we will have to be patient and see what happens 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM heh ... nice look on the ggem for the 20/21st 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:54 PM Long range GEM shows how to get it done in the Jan 20-22nd time frame for SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted Saturday at 04:58 PM Share Posted Saturday at 04:58 PM 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Long range GEM shows how to get it done in the Jan 20-22nd time frame for SNE. Nice high to the north on that depiction…havent seen that much the last few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Saturday at 05:07 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:07 PM what we have is conceptual support here. we're just ( if yet - ) are not producing anything from it, from any of the various ens systems. granted at this range ( 9+ days ...) it's not always the case that materialization has already taken place. big tier events, however, due tend to at least rsvp the longer lead outputs with something. the fact that we are not seeing more could also be flow compression. it relegates the storm types to timing and placement - Walt mentioned needle threading and yeah ...we've been talking about that in here for the last week yadda yadda.. so we agree with him on that. we're not likely to see a curler on the charts in this regime - hell, we actually had some blocking preceding today's near miss, and the speed of the flow still managed to snatch a loss out of the jaws of success. the other aspect i'm a little leery of is the -epo/-pna tandem. it's a risk for cutters... i've seen lots of scenarios where active b-c zones along or off the ec at this range end up back toward buffalo, and we end up in a s drizzle driver. on the fence though because that same velocity soaked hemisphere tends to argue back east with the dx stretching 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 05:25 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:25 PM Canadian is a massive pants tent. Nice high to the north. Please happen. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:41 PM 16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is a massive pants tent. Nice high to the north. Please happen. Euro also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:42 PM Euro alsoYou have SV eh, what’s it do?!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:43 PM 1 minute ago, Heisy said: You have SV eh, what’s it do?! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:44 PM 1 minute ago, Heisy said: You have SV eh, what’s it do?! . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM Looks like some energy got pinched off in the Southwest flow got ahead of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:45 PM 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro also What's the GFS say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:46 PM 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Canadian is a massive pants tent. Nice high to the north. Please happen. Nothing says confidence quite like a day 10 Canadian. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:47 PM Yea it’s a lighter side hit, but if all the energy had come East, would have been like the cmc. It was close enough anyway at this range. We take for now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM Share Posted Saturday at 05:50 PM I see that ridging though. It could whiff, but that SE ridge isn’t exactly going to have this scoot massively east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 06:04 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:04 PM Story time with cousin Donnie. I’ve had the misfortune of canceling winter exceedingly few times in my life. The first was January 2015. Living in DC and watching you all cash in on consecutive weekends while we missed out tore my winter weenie soul from my body. I knew then that my differences with winter were irreconcilable, and I divorced myself from having any faith in it. It worked. I started The Panic Room and glorious years of soulless winter observation occurred. I came back home in 2018—just in time for this historic stretch of horrific winter wx and held to my arm’s length treatment of winter tracking. But over time, the lies winter whispered in my ear became more sophisticated. The pattern looked extraordinary. The Atlantic would save us. The Pacific would save us. Our latitude would. It was always ten days away and never to be, but the lies in animations were so appealing I began to have hope again. Until December 2022. The epic pattern that folks tracked for nearly a month led to an all time event in Buffalo, and rain here. I knew then it was time to pull the plug, and I did. This time it was the cold that seduced me. If we just had cold in place, I was told, eventually something would happen. There was snow on Christmas Eve. Ponds and rivers freezing. Hope in the air. It breathed life into my winter weenie soul once again, only to have the inevitable happen. Another disastrous winter. In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. I made that mistake believing in winter 2024-25. Never again. Rather than crap up threads, I’m just going to go away. 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted Saturday at 06:15 PM Author Share Posted Saturday at 06:15 PM 11 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Story time with cousin Donnie. I’ve had the misfortune of canceling winter exceedingly few times in my life. The first was January 2015. Living in DC and watching you all cash in on consecutive weekends while we missed out tore my winter weenie soul from my body. I knew then that my differences with winter were irreconcilable, and I divorced myself from having any faith in it. It worked. I started The Panic Room and glorious years of soulless winter observation occurred. I came back home in 2018—just in time for this historic stretch of horrific winter wx and held to my arm’s length treatment of winter tracking. But over time, the lies winter whispered in my ear became more sophisticated. The pattern looked extraordinary. The Atlantic would save us. The Pacific would save us. Our latitude would. It was always ten days away and never to be, but the lies in animations were so appealing I began to have hope again. Until December 2022. The epic pattern that folks tracked for nearly a month led to an all time event in Buffalo, and rain here. I knew then it was time to pull the plug, and I did. This time it was the cold that seduced me. If we just had cold in place, I was told, eventually something would happen. There was snow on Christmas Eve. Ponds and rivers freezing. Hope in the air. It breathed life into my winter weenie soul once again, only to have the inevitable happen. Another disastrous winter. In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. I made that mistake believing in winter 2024-25. Never again. Rather than crap up threads, I’m just going to go away. this winter has not been a total shitshow, yes we might not have gotten a lot of snow BUT we have gotten the cold at least 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Saturday at 06:18 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:18 PM 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Story time with cousin Donnie. I’ve had the misfortune of canceling winter exceedingly few times in my life. The first was January 2015. Living in DC and watching you all cash in on consecutive weekends while we missed out tore my winter weenie soul from my body. I knew then that my differences with winter were irreconcilable, and I divorced myself from having any faith in it. It worked. I started The Panic Room and glorious years of soulless winter observation occurred. I came back home in 2018—just in time for this historic stretch of horrific winter wx and held to my arm’s length treatment of winter tracking. But over time, the lies winter whispered in my ear became more sophisticated. The pattern looked extraordinary. The Atlantic would save us. The Pacific would save us. Our latitude would. It was always ten days away and never to be, but the lies in animations were so appealing I began to have hope again. Until December 2022. The epic pattern that folks tracked for nearly a month led to an all time event in Buffalo, and rain here. I knew then it was time to pull the plug, and I did. This time it was the cold that seduced me. If we just had cold in place, I was told, eventually something would happen. There was snow on Christmas Eve. Ponds and rivers freezing. Hope in the air. It breathed life into my winter weenie soul once again, only to have the inevitable happen. Another disastrous winter. In order to know the true depth of despair, one must first have hope. I made that mistake believing in winter 2024-25. Never again. Rather than crap up threads, I’m just going to go away. Put yourself in my shoes. Suck it up bitch. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Saturday at 06:27 PM Share Posted Saturday at 06:27 PM 10 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: this winter has not been a total shitshow, yes we might not have gotten a lot of snow BUT we have gotten the cold at least When there’s a continual cold feed it makes the lack of snow all the more egregious. At least if it’s a blowtorch you know you have no shot. 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Put yourself in my shoes. Suck it up bitch. My shoe size may be a bit bigger, but we’re wearing the same brand brother. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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