Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 07:03 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:03 PM Just now, Modfan2 said: 46F today; almost bare nape weather after the windy crap conditions the last few days. the wind chokes that quality off though - seein' as it was my euphemism. ha. no but it's close though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 07:05 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:05 PM 46? That’s sun contaminated IJD is 39 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 07:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:06 PM Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 46? That’s sun contaminated IJD is 39 IJD has seemed cool lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 07:07 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:07 PM Actually stations 39 or so near them. Checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted Friday at 07:09 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:09 PM 2 hours ago, tamarack said: Seems colder in the Northeast thanks to the wind. Also clouds and daily max temps - here they're running 3.7° BN this month while mins are +4.5. KMPV is -1.8° on the month so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 07:11 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:11 PM 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Actually stations 39 or so near them. Checks out. It sure ain’t 46 in that area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted Friday at 07:13 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:13 PM Just now, Damage In Tolland said: It sure ain’t 46 in that area Look at weather underground in my area, 42,44, 46 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 07:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:14 PM 13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Extended at least offers hope. Definitely has that moisture out of the gulf look. And overall cold. That 20th event though could be mild...definitely a risk. yes .. because it's a -epo load preceding that amplitude ... which, that's really wobbly where the trough axis really ends up. could easily back up relative to the flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 07:18 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:18 PM 5 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Look at weather underground in my area, 42,44, 46 I’ll allow 42 is legit since that’s what BDL is 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted Friday at 07:28 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:28 PM High of 40.4° here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 07:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:31 PM with air so dry and the sun angle still very low ... the 42 won't result in that much actual snow melt, so the pack will ... oh, wait 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted Friday at 07:33 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:33 PM Was up in Sharon/Temple NH earlier, no snow at all there even 1200' and up. Not even piles. Very unusual 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted Friday at 07:42 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:42 PM High at my station was 33.1 today, but most stations around the area never went above freezing...quite the temp gradient to be mid 40s 20 miles away. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 07:43 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:43 PM 41 here for the high. Sping has spung. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted Friday at 07:47 PM Share Posted Friday at 07:47 PM Quite an albedo effect on those temps today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Friday at 08:04 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:04 PM Furnaced to 35 here for the high earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Friday at 08:06 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:06 PM finally looks cold with precip after the 18th or so. reminiscent of the patterns we had in 13-14 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted Friday at 08:10 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:10 PM It's 25ºF here in Charlotte but the super bright/strong/blistering early January sun is melting my snow. I was surprised to hear the infernal drip-drip-dripping when I went on the porch a few minutes ago. When there is less than 0.1" water content in a 4" snowpack, what the sublimation does not kill, a 25º sunny day will..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:14 PM 10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Furnaced to 35 here for the high earlier 35.5 so 36. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 08:14 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:14 PM European and British calculations figure with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's warming El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. They predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 08:15 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:15 PM Just now, Typhoon Tip said: European and British calculations figure with a cooling La Niña instead of last year's warming El Niño, 2025 is likely to be not quite as hot as 2024. They predict it will turn out to be the third-warmest. However, the first six days of January—despite frigid temperatures in the U.S. East—averaged slightly warmer and are the hottest start to a year yet, according to Copernicus data. Congrats Earth, we did it again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted Friday at 08:17 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:17 PM 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Congrats Earth, we did it again. 3 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted Friday at 08:22 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:22 PM personally ... their reasoning is sus to me a little. i mean, 2023 with the pan-dimensional thermal burst ...which apparently, never receded... actually took place pre- NINO/ENSO state... so, that tells me that whatever that was, was quite logically not really occurring because' of NINO - there may have been some back and forth augmentation/superposition thereafter, but the thermal burst buries NINO somewhere inside. if that is true, not sure NINA/ENSO is going to be so readily quantitative in the end results, either. this is just how this all looks logically, to me. i'm not sure what mathematics they use to come to the idea that NINO/ENSO's warming led to 2024 - but perhaps it's something like 2023 + (2023 + NINO) = 2024 so 2025 is 2023 + (2023 + NINO) - (2024 + NINA) ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Friday at 08:27 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:27 PM The HT eruption also threw things into high gear. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted Friday at 08:30 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:30 PM Never got above 27 here today, staring at my 1 inch glacier and sad snow piles in the yard. I hope we can squeeze at least an inch tomorrow and maybe Tuesday ends up popping for us. If we get rain next week I'm selling and moving to Lab city. Finally move back north and can snowmobile out of my garage door and had the worst possible snow seasons since I did... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted Friday at 08:31 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:31 PM 3 hours ago, Chrisrotary12 said: What's that feeling like? To wake up and look out the window and go: "damn it snowed again!". I honestly can't remember the last time I woke up in the morning and was surprised by the amount of snow we go overnight. January 2015 maybe It happened here in the Valley last week. 3" of subcritical flow fluff with the inversion below the ridgetops to the east. First time in a *VERY* long time. Just missed out yesterday as well. I got 0.5" but when I went to the gym 12 miles away, it was 4" of surprise fluff that just never shut off all day. The BTV snow machine is interesting in these NW flow regimes when there is a cutoff to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Friday at 08:51 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:51 PM 4 hours ago, ineedsnow said: yes please 4 hours ago, Prismshine Productions said: Page out of the 2007-2008 playbook- 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Friday at 08:58 PM Share Posted Friday at 08:58 PM 5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said: You didn't ask me but what has me spooked for winter enthusiasm are these inferences, perhaps compounding one another: A: Yeah, the MJO desk is echoing those Weeklies - so it would seem. Whether they have seen them or not it is unclear if they are incorporating them into their present outlook philosophy - they defer to just a linear correlation to wave spacing "...• While below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. in the near-term, the strengthening MJO across the Indian Ocean historically favors a warm extratropical response over the U.S., and a pattern reversal toward warmer temperatures could begin toward the end of the month or in early February..." B: La Nina's are statistically correlated to warmer Februaries. This is "field-presumptive," admittedly. If anyone has qualitative information I will not take it as refutation - be my guest. And obviously, like all inference techniques ... the interpretation should be used in the spirit of "tendency" C: The last 10 years of eastern continental climatology has verified very usually, at times 'shockingly so' is not a poor adjective, warm excursions in February's. We're not talking the thaw times of lore, with one or two days into the upper 50s or low 60s and a continental snow line retreat exposing one or two eager Crockus shoots of lore. These events featured temperatures of June east of the Apps cordillera soaring past 75 reaching 80 between D.C. and PWM. They were historic setting numbers, of course, but what is of more importance to me is that it happened multiple years out of the past decade - regardless of ENSOs... And we may as well include the March 'heat bursts' that were of equal anomaly in this group. This to me should not be ignored. SO... (A + B + C ) / 3 = ? ...just summing the concepts and dividing for the mean, in this case, should be a red flag ( perhaps a pun there?) Having said all that. I'm not sure the MJO desk has their part of this quite right. I was looking over the temperature composites for the RMM, and they are pretty cold through phase 3 - which is still two weeks away - and it's not clear whether the wave will be robust in 4 from this far away in time. Maybe they have some early non-zero confidence for the temporal horizon. who knows. "B: La Nina's are statistically correlated to warmer Februaries. This is "field-presumptive," admittedly. If anyone has qualitative information I will not take it as refutation - be my guest. And obviously, like all inference techniques ... the interpretation should be used in the spirit of "tendency" Caveat with this being your point about ENSO being less coupled with the atmosphere....we have certainly seen it this year with the WWB erupting in late Novie to kick off the extended PNA regime that we have been in. Not to mention this La Niña is very meager to begin with....weak ENSO are more prone to other influences, anyway, aside from any CC inference RE difficulty coupling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Friday at 09:00 PM Share Posted Friday at 09:00 PM 4 hours ago, tamarack said: Seems colder in the Northeast thanks to the wind. Also clouds and daily max temps - here they're running 3.7° BN this month while mins are +4.5. CC in a nutshell....much larger impact on daily mins than maxes....not to imply it does't impact maxes at all because it certainly does. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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