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Jester January


Prismshine Productions
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3 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

op ed

it's probably my age.  i'm sure this does not reflect the sentiments of most in this social media.  this ballz achin' cold with legit storm potentials ... seemingly preordained to dice rollin' into oblivion thing really has me ready to check out on winter at a personal historically early date.  

the next "quasi legit" chance for an organized ...anything to track, is between the 18th and 21st - probably centered on the 20th if the thing even exist.  what is happening is another major modal shift in the telecon derivatives of all three ens means: eps/gefs/geps.  it is also now showing up wonderfully in the spatial synoptic layouts:   strong -epo burst.    i would call it a burst as well, because in a day and a half-worth of time the index careens from +1 to -1, while the cinema of the above three ... match that numerology with a rather flashed onset of strong far ne pac/alaskan sector positive anomalies.  

the operational versions are all onboard.  the gfs/euro/cmc, all show a large scale deposition of cold into canada, a loading event that is pretty much unabated. intense polar-arctic frontal event ensues bringing the goods into the conus ...   

it is out along the leading edge of that frontal sweep that the operational runs are trying to time s/w spacing.   what's interesting is that even the individual run cycles that don't have much deep layer s/w potency are tending to create some sort of event during the total transition out there.  example, the 00z euro was lack luster with s/w mechanics, but ends up with a wave on the front and a decent moderate event ( 9 or 10 days out).   the 06z gfs on the other hand, has a powerful s/w ripping n ... which is likely over done given the gfs' ocd with gradients out in time... blah blah.     there's likely to be tremendous thermodynamic potential thru the period of time due to the shear rapidity of these larger scaled changes - it could be that all these ways and means to get an event around the 19 or 20th ... are just a result of poorly resolving any random trigger, fake or real notwithstanding.  the rotor drafts aft of a 747 taking off from dullas might be enough

i'm sorta waiting on the pna.  even a low frequency movement positive might be an indicator for legitimacy.   that's occurred ... but it's too new for now. 

yeah, so 12z runs are biting on this idea even more.  that's the ultimate needle threader for now but obviously that doesn't mean much yet

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sad

image.gif.cafadcffdab290cf8159fe104bdb635d.gif

you know what is funny-ironic about this image here ...  when thinking back a week at those eye-popping raging bizzard model runs that of course are not destined to materialize, that region of bare ground in new england is just about cookie-cutter the negative exposure of the 24" of snow those original model runs had.

reality becomes opposite of the model forecasts really.   outstanding -

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6 hours ago, dendrite said:

Will be interesting to see how warm we get today. We’re really inverted below H85 with NW flow and full sun, albeit a low angle. In March with little snow cover we’d probably mix right through it, but in early Jan it’s a lot more difficult. 

At peak heating 950 is near -5C at CON and 0C at 900. That is so damn shallow with full sun. lol

Definitely overperforming MOS today

image.gif

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