Jester January

[MJO812]

Gfs and Euro has a storm around the same time in 2 weeks

 

[weathafella]

Well speaking of op runs the euro produces in the 11-15 period and cold by d8-9.  That’s usually how it works with these.

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well speaking of op runs the euro produces in the 11-15 period and cold by d8-9.  That’s usually how it works with these.

Euro has a clipper around the 4th

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro has a clipper around the 4th

It’s the 6th. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

It’s the 6th. 

Loaded for Bear 

[CoastalWx]

Kind of shows you that this pattern can yield good events when you have that kind of baroclinic gradients to work with.

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Loaded with beer

That explains it

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That explains it

Doesn’t he have stuff to do? Family to be with?

[ORH_wxman]

30 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Well speaking of op runs the euro produces in the 11-15 period and cold by d8-9.  That’s usually how it works with these.

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems. 
 

I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpoint. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee anything but it loads the dice in our favor. A bad pattern doesn’t exclude snowfall either but it loads the dice against us. But I’d say about 75% of the forum posters don’t care for probabilistic discourse. They want guarantees. If the storms aren’t showing up in the short/medium term guidance inside of 5-6 days, then its going to be negative talk from them regardless of what the longer range shows…if the LR looks excellent, they will roll their eyes and say wake me up when it’s closer. If it looks like crap, they will assume it’s correct and bitch about that…I always found that part funny. 

[CoastalWx]

Definitely some potential after the 5-6th or so on the EPS. I feel like that time range hasn’t changed.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Definitely some potential after the 5-6th or so on the EPS. I feel like that time range hasn’t changed.

Yeah first legit shot for SNE is prob after 1/3-ish. 
 

Timeline has been pretty similar for almost a week now:

1. Pure crap for everyone until New Years

2. NNE might sneak something from Jan 1-2, but iffy even for them. 
 

3. Maybe something smaller in Jan 3-4 time range (scraper or clipper)

4. Larger potential beyond Jan 5th

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah first legit shot for SNE is prob after 1/3-ish. 
 

Timeline has been pretty similar for almost a week now:

1. Pure crap for everyone until New Years

2. NNE might sneak something from Jan 1-2, but iffy even for them. 
 

3. Maybe something smaller in Jan 3-4 time range (scraper or clipper)

4. Larger potential beyond Jan 5th

Yeah forgot about the 3rd, although that’s shaky as you alluded to. 
 

Unless this falls apart, it doesn’t seem like something where a large part of the area is skunked. We all know the caveats, but I’m hopeful with this.

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah forgot about the 3rd, although that’s shaky as you alluded to. 
 

Unless this falls apart, it doesn’t seem like something where a large part of the area is skunked. We all know the caveats, but I’m hopeful with this.

Nobody likes waiting…esp when we haven’t had a major (double digits) event yet this year and some peeps here haven’t had one since 2022. So I can understand the impatience. But in this case, I don’t feel anything has been can-kicked. It’s always been the first week of January for a while. Originally weeks ago we were hoping for late December after Xmas looked like shit but then our cold period got extended into Xmas and the shit period decided to happen the week after Xmas before the big reload. But for at least the past week or so, it’s looked like first week of January to flip. 

[cleetussnow]

21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems. 
 

I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpoint. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee anything but it loads the dice in our favor. A bad pattern doesn’t exclude snowfall either but it loads the dice against us. But I’d say about 75% of the forum posters don’t care for probabilistic discourse. They want guarantees. If the storms aren’t showing up in the short/medium term guidance inside of 5-6 days, then its going to be negative talk from them regardless of what the longer range shows…if the LR looks excellent, they will roll their eyes and say wake me up when it’s closer. If it looks like crap, they will assume it’s correct and bitch about that…I always found that part funny. 

Agree.  Everyone needs to accept the meaning of 'pattern' in terms of sensible weather.  Pattern is mass field - not storms, and only moderately meaningful for sensible weather.  With the exception of the global gyre as Tip has referenced, storminess is theoretical only.  

But this board likes sensible measurable weather.  We need to get a storm in the operationals with a couple days of consistency and then we can talk sensible.  I don't care if it's day 3 or 10 - give me 3 operationals with 2 or 3 days of consistent runs on a threat, then we can fire up a thread and have at it. 

There cannot be A storm threat based on h5 looks on the 10 - 15 day ensembles and I feel that's how some people perceive those depictions.  We can be optimists tho.  Feel free.   I also don't like the buzzkillers taking aim and positive vibes.  

[kdxken]

6 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Agree.  Everyone needs to accept the meaning of 'pattern' in terms of sensible weather.  Pattern is mass field - not storms, and only moderately meaningful for sensible weather.  With the exception of the global gyre as Tip has referenced, storminess is theoretical only.  

But this board likes sensible measurable weather.  We need to get a storm in the operationals with a couple days of consistency and then we can talk sensible.  I don't care if it's day 3 or 10 - give me 3 operationals with 2 or 3 days of consistent runs on a threat, then we can fire up a thread and have at it. 

There cannot be A storm threat based on h5 looks on the 10 - 15 day ensembles and I feel that's how some people perceive those depictions.  We can be optimists tho.  Feel free.   I also don't like the buzzkillers taking aim and positive vibes.  

Yeah no one's going to get excited until there's some eye candy on the operationals. I'm just glad we haven't been hearing the phrase, thread the needle much. That is a sure sign we are toast.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Yeah no one's going to get excited until there's some eye candy on the operationals. I'm just glad we haven't been hearing the phrase, thread the needle much. That is a sure sign we are toast.

That’s a decent way to look at it. When the pattern is not favorable, then we have to thread the needle to get a system. A good pattern gives us wiggle room on the track of a shortwave and as a cherry on top, favorable patterns are often stormier too, so in addition to not needing a perfect track, you also have more chances in general. (This isn’t the case every time. Sometimes we get too dry and suppressed)

[ORH_wxman]

I looped the EPS individual storm tracks from 06z on the 6th onwards until the 10th and you can def see how the chances look to become more numerous as time goes on that pattern…it’s obviously a bit buckshot and diffuse being so far out but there’s definitely a pattern of more chances deeper into the run 

 

[kdxken]

 

[Prismshine Productions]

 

Heh... Wow

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems. 
 

I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpoint. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee anything but it loads the dice in our favor. A bad pattern doesn’t exclude snowfall either but it loads the dice against us. But I’d say about 75% of the forum posters don’t care for probabilistic discourse. They want guarantees. If the storms aren’t showing up in the short/medium term guidance inside of 5-6 days, then its going to be negative talk from them regardless of what the longer range shows…if the LR looks excellent, they will roll their eyes and say wake me up when it’s closer. If it looks like crap, they will assume it’s correct and bitch about that…I always found that part funny. 

Too this point though, at some point we all have to go back to the drawing board and better define or fine-tune what distinguishes a good pattern versus a bad pattern. I mean let's be honest here, over the last 2-3 years how many times has it been said, "the upcoming pattern looks great" and yet nothing happens. I mean the batting average on this is probably less than .100 and probably much less than that. 

Maybe there is just too much emphasis on patterns when it comes to defining not just storm potential but storm elements because at the end of the day, what's more important is how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern which can be independent on the pattern itself. During the spring, the severe crowd loves seeing big troughs digging into the West in April/May but deep trough digging into the West don't always correlate to widespread, high end severe weather events. 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Heh... Wow

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

360hours isn't even worth eye-candy value.  Looking at it for what it is, seeing 45* in Eastport vs. 0* in East Boston is a little unusual.

[Prismshine Productions]

360hours isn't even worth eye-candy value.  Looking at it for what it is, seeing 45* in Eastport vs. 0* in East Boston is a little unusual.

Got curious from the tweet

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[tamarack]

40 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Heh... Wow

Looks like a smashing CF after a cutter.  Exciting but no thanks.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, cleetussnow said:

Agree.  Everyone needs to accept the meaning of 'pattern' in terms of sensible weather.  Pattern is mass field - not storms, and only moderately meaningful for sensible weather.  With the exception of the global gyre as Tip has referenced, storminess is theoretical only.  

But this board likes sensible measurable weather.  We need to get a storm in the operationals with a couple days of consistency and then we can talk sensible.  I don't care if it's day 3 or 10 - give me 3 operationals with 2 or 3 days of consistent runs on a threat, then we can fire up a thread and have at it. 

There cannot be A storm threat based on h5 looks on the 10 - 15 day ensembles and I feel that's how some people perceive those depictions.  We can be optimists tho.  Feel free.   I also don't like the buzzkillers taking aim and positive vibes.  

good post, but i'd suggest one small alteration to the bold above.  '...this board is addicted to the model produced cinema for a thrill'     - otherwise spot on...  lol

j/k   sorta

i do offer there is usefulness in identifying 'probability nodes' within a general pattern evolution, however.   for example, folks want to get past the 5th or whatever ... however, that is actually 'intramodal'  there is less mass field restorative forcing once inside the relative stasis of a pattern mode.  it's at the onset and outset of the pattern inflections where things get interesting.  which is why in this case, dec 30 - jan 4 is the better fit.  it's just that those systems look to arrive in a rotted polar air mass ...during this latter leg of cc no less. heh.  

one thing that's hurting that range is that we've pretty much lost the operational representation of what was originally a better -nao demo.   it's blown away and that's why these systems are cutting and/or are too warm - tending to be that way as of late in guidance.

[ORH_wxman]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Too this point though, at some point we all have to go back to the drawing board and better define or fine-tune what distinguishes a good pattern versus a bad pattern. I mean let's be honest here, over the last 2-3 years how many times has it been said, "the upcoming pattern looks great" and yet nothing happens. I mean the batting average on this is probably less than .100 and probably much less than that. 

Maybe there is just too much emphasis on patterns when it comes to defining not just storm potential but storm elements because at the end of the day, what's more important is how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern which can be independent on the pattern itself. During the spring, the severe crowd loves seeing big troughs digging into the West in April/May but deep trough digging into the West don't always correlate to widespread, high end severe weather events. 

Pattern Verification matters too. We had some excellent looks fail to materialize over the past couple years. So the great pattern never came. We did get a pretty favorable pattern (but not as good as what’s progged right now) in December 2022 for about 10-12 day period but we mostly struck out in SNE save for a light event on 12/11/22 I think it was…that was the infamous phase of the PV out west which turned a D6 snowstorm into the Buffalo blizzard. Last year we had many head fakes…WPO/EPO region always seemed to deteriorate as we got closer. 
 

That isn’t the case this time I don’t think. It’s been pretty consistent and we’ve already verified some favorable pacific look this cold season. 

[UnitedWx]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

aah ... there should be no game.

the reality is failing returns on optimistic outlooks ... period.  that cannot be controverted ( argued against...) because it is the reality.  

anything else milquetoasts in an attempt to either evade that reality, or white glove it - which frankly aggravates those that want to engage in this social media but have to wade through this amelioration thing       

the point is ( altho there's sarcasm in that, too...yes ) modeling systems are very drastically short on productive results, given both qualitative and quantitatively supportive outlooks. 

it's fair enough to suspect that this aspect, too, will end up yet another canard pattern. 

This is true... but is also nothing new. We've had many years when this is a thing... it's just that the butt hurt comes on fast after a few crappy winters in a row

[CoastalWx]

This December was kind of favorable too. I do feel like we left some stuff on the table, but hey many areas did have snow. 
 

I didn’t mean to come across as a complainer. Sometimes it helped to vent. I really could have used that last Friday event for many reasons, but it didn’t work out. I’ll just keep my weenie crossed for January. 

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Pattern does get a lot more active after the 3rd/4th it seems. 
 

I think most people have a hard time conceptually understanding good pattern/bad pattern discourse from a probabilistic standpoint. A good pattern doesn’t guarantee anything but it loads the dice in our favor. A bad pattern doesn’t exclude snowfall either but it loads the dice against us. But I’d say about 75% of the forum posters don’t care for probabilistic discourse. They want guarantees. If the storms aren’t showing up in the short/medium term guidance inside of 5-6 days, then its going to be negative talk from them regardless of what the longer range shows…if the LR looks excellent, they will roll their eyes and say wake me up when it’s closer. If it looks like crap, they will assume it’s correct and bitch about that…I always found that part funny. 

That's why over the last few years I swear there are some children posting here. Some are good at showing their disappointment... and then there's the children 

[CoastalWx]

EPS still looks good too. That’s a dam nice look. Keeps the PV on this side.

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

Too this point though, at some point we all have to go back to the drawing board and better define or fine-tune what distinguishes a good pattern versus a bad pattern. I mean let's be honest here, over the last 2-3 years how many times has it been said, "the upcoming pattern looks great" and yet nothing happens. I mean the batting average on this is probably less than .100 and probably much less than that. 

Maybe there is just too much emphasis on patterns when it comes to defining not just storm potential but storm elements because at the end of the day, what's more important is how the pieces are moving and evolving within the pattern which can be independent on the pattern itself. During the spring, the severe crowd loves seeing big troughs digging into the West in April/May but deep trough digging into the West don't always correlate to widespread, high end severe weather events. 

True, but many times said pattern is two plus weeks out. To me that's just something to keep an eye on until it is much closer in. Some don't get that