Jester January

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies try to torch us in February but I’ve noticed a pattern as we get closer that it’s no longer trying to put lower heights over AK/Bering. It’s keeping the WPO negative which may mitigate some of the expected warmup in February. I’m sure when the SE ridge flexes, we’ll have a 65F orgy for a couple of days with the usual suspects both on and off the forum pronouncing the beginning of spring (ala 2017 and 2018) but there could easily be a lot of cold just lurking to the north and advecting into our region at various intervals. 

The cold lurking to the north has been on the Cansips monthlies for the last 2 or 3 updates, including the current one fwiw.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies try to torch us in February but I’ve noticed a pattern as we get closer that it’s no longer trying to put lower heights over AK/Bering. It’s keeping the WPO negative which may mitigate some of the expected warmup in February. I’m sure when the SE ridge flexes, we’ll have a 65F orgy for a couple of days with the usual suspects both on and off the forum pronouncing the beginning of spring (ala 2017 and 2018) but there could easily be a lot of cold just lurking to the north and advecting into our region at various intervals. 

This was essentially the theme of my outlook....I would expect that to come to fruition for the most part, though I'm sure there will obviously be some +WPO intervals accompanied by a warmer look.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This was essentially the theme of my outlook....I would expect that to come to fruition for the most part, though I'm sure there will obviously be some +WPO intervals accompanied by a warmer look.

Yeah I’m wondering if maybe we go like +2 in February instead of the usual Niña +4 or +5 that has happened in recent years. 

[weatherwiz]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies try to torch us in February but I’ve noticed a pattern as we get closer that it’s no longer trying to put lower heights over AK/Bering. It’s keeping the WPO negative which may mitigate some of the expected warmup in February. I’m sure when the SE ridge flexes, we’ll have a 65F orgy for a couple of days with the usual suspects both on and off the forum pronouncing the beginning of spring (ala 2017 and 2018) but there could easily be a lot of cold just lurking to the north and advecting into our region at various intervals. 

We'll end up getting everything to line up in late February/March...too late for much of us while NNE somehow manages 50-70" of snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I’m wondering if maybe we go like +2 in February instead of the usual Niña +4 or +5 that has happened in recent years. 

Exactly. I think it will be a better pattern than 2018-2019 because of the WPO....should be some bonafide SWFE mixed in, as opposed to just 2-4" front enders.

[CoastalWx]

17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty much a Modoki....but that isn't such a big deal when it's weak like this....this is a lot like the 2008-2009 La Niña.

01JAN2025     23.7 0.1     25.3-0.1     25.8-0.7     27.7-0.6

If only the sensible weather acted like it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

If only the sensible weather acted like it.

Yea, I only used it as an ENSO analog...not seasonal.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

2011 is the only year I doubled up on as an analog for February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

 When it's 80 in Boston during February....it's CC....when it snows in Atlanta, it's CC....

PS: Atlanta has more than double my seasonal snowfall in mid Jan

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Meh on the south side, much more to the north. I like his sarcasm.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 When it's 80 in Boston during February....it's CC....when it snows in Atlanta, it's CC....

Pretty sure he is being sarcastic.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Pretty sure he is being sarcastic.

I know, but some will ...do you doubt it?

[SJonesWX]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies try to torch us in February but I’ve noticed a pattern as we get closer that it’s no longer trying to put lower heights over AK/Bering. It’s keeping the WPO negative which may mitigate some of the expected warmup in February. I’m sure when the SE ridge flexes, we’ll have a 65F orgy for a couple of days with the usual suspects both on and off the forum pronouncing the beginning of spring (ala 2017 and 2018) but there could easily be a lot of cold just lurking to the north and advecting into our region at various intervals. 

March 2012 walking in the door! /DIT

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Weeklies try to torch us in February but I’ve noticed a pattern as we get closer that it’s no longer trying to put lower heights over AK/Bering. It’s keeping the WPO negative which may mitigate some of the expected warmup in February. I’m sure when the SE ridge flexes, we’ll have a 65F orgy for a couple of days with the usual suspects both on and off the forum pronouncing the beginning of spring (ala 2017 and 2018) but there could easily be a lot of cold just lurking to the north and advecting into our region at various intervals. 

You didn't ask me but what has me spooked for winter enthusiasm are these inferences, perhaps compounding one another:

A:  Yeah, the MJO desk is echoing those Weeklies - so it would seem. Whether they have seen them or not it is unclear if they are incorporating them into their present outlook philosophy - they defer to just a linear correlation to wave spacing   "...• While below-normal temperatures are forecast across much of the central and eastern U.S. in the near-term, the strengthening MJO across the Indian Ocean historically favors a warm extratropical response over the U.S., and a pattern reversal toward warmer temperatures could begin toward the end of the month or in early February..."

B:   La Nina's are statistically correlated to warmer Februaries.  This is "field-presumptive," admittedly. If anyone has qualitative information I will not take it as refutation - be my guest.        And obviously, like all inference techniques ... the interpretation should be used in the spirit of "tendency"

C:   The last 10 years of eastern continental climatology has verified very usually, at times 'shockingly so' is not a poor adjective, warm excursions in February's.   We're not talking the thaw times of lore, with one or two days into the upper 50s or low 60s and a continental snow line retreat exposing one or two eager Crockus shoots of lore.   These events featured temperatures of June east of the Apps cordillera soaring past 75 reaching 80 between D.C. and PWM.   They were historic setting numbers,  of course, but what is of more importance to me is that it happened multiple years out of the past decade - regardless of ENSOs...   And we may as well include the March 'heat bursts' that were of equal anomaly in this group.  This to me should not be ignored.

SO...

(A + B + C ) / 3   = ?

...just summing the concepts and dividing for the mean, in this case,  should be a red flag ( perhaps a pun there?)

Having said all that. I'm not sure the MJO desk has their part of this quite right.   I was looking over the temperature composites for the RMM, and they are pretty cold through phase 3 - which is still two weeks away - and it's not clear whether the wave will be robust in 4 from this far away in time.  Maybe they have some early non-zero confidence for the temporal horizon. who knows.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 When it's 80 in Boston during February....it's CC....when it snows in Atlanta, it's CC....

PS: Atlanta has more than double my seasonal snowfall in mid Jan

ah yeeeah,  you know me - i'm not one to shy away from cc attribution if it's sus in a situation but that?

wrooooong!    

dude i recall big ice storms and 5" sleet bombs mixed with snow cake leveling grids down there since antiquity.  in fact, you could argue more that NOT having more than 1 in the last 25 years is the signal - not the fact that one is occurring at all here.

..unless i'm missing something - oh, okay, maybe he's being snarky.  hope so -

[michsnowfreak]

33 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 When it's 80 in Boston during February....it's CC....when it snows in Atlanta, it's CC....

PS: Atlanta has more than double my seasonal snowfall in mid Jan

I dont think Atl actually got 5" based on obs. Though they do have white ground. Im definitely not trying to rub salt in the wound, but is your sig up to date with only 2" on the season? 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think Atl actually got 5" based on obs. Though they do have white ground. Im definitely not trying to rub salt in the wound, but is your sig up to date with only 2" on the season? 

....it has barely snowed in the Merrimack Valley.  I have 1.75 so far....last measurable snowfall was 3 weeks ago. And barring a miracle tomorrow the next 7-10 days may also be snowless...

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

....it has barely snowed in the Merrimack Valley.  I have 1.75 so far....last measurable snowfall was 3 weeks ago. And barring a miracle tomorrow the next 7-10 days may also be snowless...

i'm 4.75 (close est) over here in Ayer, which the nashoba valley drains geographically into the m valley.   ... not that terrain per se has anything to do with it.   but i can confirm the dearth in the region.  

[ROOSTA]

I don't see a NEXT threat.
End of the World stuff.

[Allsnow]

59 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Meh on the south side, much more to the north. I like his sarcasm.

 

[Great Snow 1717]

9 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I don't see a NEXT threat.
End of the World stuff.

..it's not even that cold across much of the northern tier states...run of the mill for the most part.

[michsnowfreak]

26 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

....it has barely snowed in the Merrimack Valley.  I have 1.75 so far....last measurable snowfall was 3 weeks ago. And barring a miracle tomorrow the next 7-10 days may also be snowless...

I knew it was bad almost everywhere in the north, but didnt realize it was that bad in spots. As a casual browser from another region, I dont really know where everyone is so I always go by the first order stations for snow totals lol. Someone posted in the Lakes forum that theres an area of southern IA that has not had measurable snow yet this season, and we have a poster who lives on the Lake Superior shore near Duluth, MN and has bare ground. Im at 6.3" on the season but most of it has been small lake amounts, so Im doing cartwheels at our 2-4" forecast of some actual synoptic snow. Hopefully you get an inch or so out of the system even as it shears moving east. Pattern clearly looks better going forward for northern locales. I know people think it sounds like a broken record, but it really does.

[tamarack]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

..it's not even that cold across much of the northern tier states...run of the mill for the most part.

Seems colder in the Northeast thanks to the wind.  Also clouds and daily max temps - here they're running 3.7° BN this month while mins are +4.5.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I knew it was bad almost everywhere in the north, but didnt realize it was that bad in spots. As a casual browser from another region, I dont really know where everyone is so I always go by the first order stations for snow totals lol. Someone posted in the Lakes forum that theres an area of southern IA that has not had measurable snow yet this season, and we have a poster who lives on the Lake Superior shore near Duluth, MN and has bare ground. Im at 6.3" on the season but most of it has been small lake amounts, so Im doing cartwheels at our 2-4" forecast of some actual synoptic snow. Hopefully you get an inch or so out of the system even as it shears moving east. Pattern clearly looks better going forward for northern locales. I know people think it sounds like a broken record, but it really does.

a multi year snow drought is still ongoing..

[michsnowfreak]

18 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

Since Feb 2018, Atlanta has had a total of 0.6" of snow. To say they were due is an understatement.

[Prismshine Productions]

CNE has a fun time on the 19th-20th (inside 240hrs to boot)

[CoastalWx]

SWFE

[Snowcrazed71]

24 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

If you look closely just to the southwest of the heart of the City, someone received 13.5".... Lol

[DJln491]

Could be a 3.5 overlayed on a 1.xx