Jester January

[dendrite]

16 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Rainer then cold. Like clockwork.

Same dude was just tweeting about a dew reading -60s in Santa Monica like it was legit

[40/70 Benchmark]

I certainly don't expect to hit March with single digits snowfall and probably not under 25-30".

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I certainly don't expect to hit March with single digits snowfall and probably not under 25-30".

It can plausibly happen but we have to dodge a lot of storms between now and the end of February. Even imperfect setups in January and February can produce front enders and such. 
 

With so much cold around, there’s a decent chance we just run a system right into it at some point. Or maybe we’ll try and go ‘88-89 and keep whiffing, lol. 

[Typhoon Tip]

op ed

it's probably my age.  i'm sure this does not reflect the sentiments of most in this social media.  this ballz achin' cold with legit storm potentials ... seemingly preordained to dice rollin' into oblivion thing really has me ready to check out on winter at a personal historically early date.  

the next "quasi legit" chance for an organized ...anything to track, is between the 18th and 21st - probably centered on the 20th if the thing even exist.  what is happening is another major modal shift in the telecon derivatives of all three ens means: eps/gefs/geps.  it is also now showing up wonderfully in the spatial synoptic layouts:   strong -epo burst.    i would call it a burst as well, because in a day and a half-worth of time the index careens from +1 to -1, while the cinema of the above three ... match that numerology with a rather flashed onset of strong far ne pac/alaskan sector positive anomalies.  

the operational versions are all onboard.  the gfs/euro/cmc, all show a large scale deposition of cold into canada, a loading event that is pretty much unabated. intense polar-arctic frontal event ensues bringing the goods into the conus ...   

it is out along the leading edge of that frontal sweep that the operational runs are trying to time s/w spacing.   what's interesting is that even the individual run cycles that don't have much deep layer s/w potency are tending to create some sort of event during the total transition out there.  example, the 00z euro was lack luster with s/w mechanics, but ends up with a wave on the front and a decent moderate event ( 9 or 10 days out).   the 06z gfs on the other hand, has a powerful s/w ripping n ... which is likely over done given the gfs' ocd with gradients out in time... blah blah.     there's likely to be tremendous thermodynamic potential thru the period of time due to the shear rapidity of these larger scaled changes - it could be that all these ways and means to get an event around the 19 or 20th ... are just a result of poorly resolving any random trigger, fake or real notwithstanding.  the rotor drafts aft of a 747 taking off from dullas might be enough

i'm sorta waiting on the pna.  even a low frequency movement positive might be an indicator for legitimacy.   that's occurred ... but it's too new for now. 

[UnitedWx]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It can plausibly happen but we have to dodge a lot of storms between now and the end of February. Even imperfect setups in January and February can produce front enders and such. 
 

With so much cold around, there’s a decent chance we just run a system right into it at some point. Or maybe we’ll try and go ‘88-89 and keep whiffing, lol. 

88-89... OoofDa! Please NO so much winter PTSD from the 80s here still

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It can plausibly happen but we have to dodge a lot of storms between now and the end of February. Even imperfect setups in January and February can produce front enders and such. 
 

With so much cold around, there’s a decent chance we just run a system right into it at some point. Or maybe we’ll try and go ‘88-89 and keep whiffing, lol. 

Right, which is what I am banking on....maybe we keep whiffing and I hit my futility mark, but I'll bet against that. probably not this season, but the tide will turn at some point.

[weatherwiz]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It can plausibly happen but we have to dodge a lot of storms between now and the end of February. Even imperfect setups in January and February can produce front enders and such. 
 

With so much cold around, there’s a decent chance we just run a system right into it at some point. Or maybe we’ll try and go ‘88-89 and keep whiffing, lol. 

Maybe that means we'll get a July 10, 1989 redux  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Maybe that means we'll get a July 10, 1989 redux  

You weren’t even born. I remember that well. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You weren’t even born. I remember that well. 

I was 8 months old, almost 9 months. Born Oct 1988 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was 8 months old, almost 9 months. Born Oct 1988 

Cool. Ya I figured you weren’t even around yet, and if you were you wouldn’t remember it. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was 8 months old, almost 9 months. Born Oct 1988 

Perusing the latest modeled lapse rates with a 40oz of formula?

[Typhoon Tip]

okay i see... follow up on the above.  the euro actually has a barely discernible road-kill wave smearing it's guts through the compressed field along the ec... it's conserved just enough mechanics with that to create a minoring wave and a burst of snow.  it has a much more potent s/w that is rotating around the nascent spv playing catch-up ... but that wave space has just about zero b-c to work on by then so it's basically a big bag of interference amid more nut sacrificial cold.   thank god,   right ? 

it wouldn't shock if there's nothing even there but a strong front but we'll see

[40/70 Benchmark]

34 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

op ed

it's probably my age.  i'm sure this does not reflect the sentiments of most in this social media.  this ballz achin' cold with legit storm potentials ... seemingly preordained to dice rollin' into oblivion thing really has me ready to check out on winter at a personal historically early date.  

the next "quasi legit" chance for an organized ...anything to track, is between the 18th and 21st - probably centered on the 20th if the thing even exist.  what is happening is another major modal shift in the telecon derivatives of all three ens means: eps/gefs/geps.  it is also now showing up wonderfully in the spatial synoptic layouts:   strong -epo burst.    i would call it a burst as well, because in a day and a half-worth of time the index careens from +1 to -1, while the cinema of the above three ... match that numerology with a rather flashed onset of strong far ne pac/alaskan sector positive anomalies.  

the operational versions are all onboard.  the gfs/euro/cmc, all show a large scale deposition of cold into canada, a loading event that is pretty much unabated. intense polar-arctic frontal event ensues bringing the goods into the conus ...   

it is out along the leading edge of that frontal sweep that the operational runs are trying to time s/w spacing.   what's interesting is that even the individual run cycles that don't have much deep layer s/w potency are tending to create some sort of event during the total transition out there.  example, the 00z euro was lack luster with s/w mechanics, but ends up with a wave on the front and a decent moderate event ( 9 or 10 days out).   the 06z gfs on the other hand, has a powerful s/w ripping n ... which is likely over done given the gfs' ocd with gradients out in time... blah blah.     there's likely to be tremendous thermodynamic potential thru the period of time due to the shear rapidity of these larger scaled changes - it could be that all these ways and means to get an event around the 19 or 20th ... are just a result of poorly resolving any random trigger, fake or real notwithstanding.  the rotor drafts aft of a 747 taking off from dullas might be enough

i'm sorta waiting on the pna.  even a low frequency movement positive might be an indicator for legitimacy.   that's occurred ... but it's too new for now. 

Tip (no pun intended) of the cap to you, John....I am too emotionally drained from the past few weeks to even look for long range threats yet. Kind of quasi-checked out while my orifices heal prior to the next violation.

[EastonSN+]

30 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Not sure if this map is a la nina or El nino, however, looks as though phase 3 is cold across the country. Looking at the forecasted mjo looks like we may have a standing wave in three. This may keep us in the freezer?

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

The GFS is close for the interior next weekend.  Canadian sends a low over PF's head with rains to Maine.  At least there is something to watch this week.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

 

Looks to me like it's a strong -WPO/RNA look....lots of cold around, but focused west...with a pretty neutral signal over most of the east, albeit a touch mild in NE. Def. a risky look as far as storm track with the RNA/flat Aleutian ridge.

 

 

[Hoth]

35 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You weren’t even born. I remember that well. 

Same. The Hamden tornado made me the weenie I am today. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I would especially like the look in the GL and NNE, but not prohibitive for us.

[EastonSN+]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to me like it's a strong -WPO/RNA look....lots of cold around, but focused west...with a pretty neutral signal over most of the east, albeit a touched mild in NE. Def. a risky look as far as storm track.

 

 

Looks like a robust Hadley Cell.

[rclab]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Tip (no pun intended) of the cap to you, John....I am too emotionally drained from the past few weeks to even look for long range threats yet. Kind of quasi-checked out while my orifices heal prior to the next violation.

Please, 40/70 … wait till the icicles melt. As always ….

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looks like a robust Hadley Cell.

Keep in mind, that composite is just raw MJO derived....and the resultant pattern will obviously be influenced by other factors , which will be (de)constructively interfered with by the MJO and thus the resultant pattern is likely to be more nuanced than that

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Looks to me like it's a strong -WPO/RNA look....lots of cold around, but focused west...with a pretty neutral signal over most of the east, albeit a touched mild in NE. Def. a risky look as far as storm track.

 

 

A lot of the modeling has it entering phase 3 then quickly dying into the COD. Any thoughts on how that would change that 5H plot?

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

A lot of the modeling has it entering phase 3 then quickly dying into the COD. Any thoughts on how that would change that 5H plot?

Probably more influenced by extra tropical influences, thus variable....which isn't necessarily bad heading into February during cool ENSO.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I mis-spoke in the previous post...that is not -WPO, its the opposite...but it looks like the NAO is south biased and kind of neutral, so some that cold should be able to bleed east in modified fashion.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, wx2fish said:

MHT dead nuts avg now. Meanwhile BOS is -2. Lack of climo rad cooling  probably showing up there at BOS

None of the fake cold nonsense.

[SJonesWX]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

The first few days were double digit positives. So we’ve been whittling away at that. 

oh yeah, I totally forgot about those warm days, blocked them from memory i guess

[Typhoon Tip]

is this a 'madoki  nina' then ?

the behavior of the sst ( which is just one metric among a few used to gauge enso vitality - i know..) seems more centrally based over the recent 10 or so days...while the whole thing is moving west.   the eastern end of 3.4 and 1+2 are actually warming.

this could be a function of intraseasona wind stressing biases. like a la nina low level wind burst that doesn't represent the whole season?  

not sure i've seen a negative 3.4 while it's warmer on either end too often.  interesting. 

by the way, this enso appears better couple ( imho ) then other's over he last 15 or so years. it may be temporary who knows. just from what i can tell.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

is this a 'madoki  nina' then ?

Pretty much a Modoki....but that isn't such a big deal when it's weak like this....this is a lot like the 2008-2009 La Niña.

01JAN2025     23.7 0.1     25.3-0.1     25.8-0.7     27.7-0.6

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

A lot of the modeling has it entering phase 3 then quickly dying into the COD. Any thoughts on how that would change that 5H plot?

More on a -EPO, but +WPO.

[ORH_wxman]

Weeklies try to torch us in February but I’ve noticed a pattern as we get closer that it’s no longer trying to put lower heights over AK/Bering. It’s keeping the WPO negative which may mitigate some of the expected warmup in February. I’m sure when the SE ridge flexes, we’ll have a 65F orgy for a couple of days with the usual suspects both on and off the forum pronouncing the beginning of spring (ala 2017 and 2018) but there could easily be a lot of cold just lurking to the north and advecting into our region at various intervals.