Jester January

[HIPPYVALLEY]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS tries for a SWFE at D10. I almost forgot what those look like. 

I said yesterday that’s what I was leaning towards/hoping for with that cutter on the 21st. 

[weathafella]

Flakes be falling 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

WATDA

[kdxken]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Flakes be falling 

Pixie dust here.

[alex]

It’s been snowing quite well today, one of the nicer upslope periods in a while 

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Eps colder than the op for the event near the 20th

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

[UnitedWx]

3 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

I had an appt one year in Blandford and there was nothing here or in the Springfield area and Blandford had about a foot of crusty snow with ice snow banks.

I really wish I could have convinced my husband to move there. It's such an awesome weenie spot, especially in lean years. There up through Becket and north is great

[brooklynwx99]

really liking the look the EPS has during that 18-22nd period. looks 13-14 esque with the displaced TPV, tons of cold in the CONUS, and a weak WAR that will help prevent suppression. sure, you can see a cutter, but it would really only tamp down the baroclinic zone for storms to ride across. give me this any day of the week over the pattern we're in now

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS tries for a SWFE at D10. I almost forgot what those look like. 

We keep looking to the distant model future for a storm. I have a gut feeling that if/when we have a real threat it's something that pops up more short range

[Layman]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

really liking the look the EPS has during that 18-22nd period. looks 13-14 esque with the displaced TPV, tons of cold in the CONUS, and a weak WAR that will help prevent suppression. sure, you can see a cutter, but it would really only tamp down the baroclinic zone for storms to ride across. give me this any day of the week over the pattern we're in now

 

I'm very pragmatic, realistic and optimistic so I'm not saying this with any negative bias at all - I simply find it ironic that I recall seeing near identical posts to this regarding the pattern we were supposed to be having at this very point in time about 10-14 days ago.  Others have mentioned that the can is continually kicked with respect to getting snow in New England and that certainly can be seen as accurate.

My personal take is that all model depictions are wrong, until they aren't.  Sounds stupid on the face of it, but it's also 100% true.  The models seem to be having moments of accuracy with some characteristics, but depending on lead time and granularity they're puking out a lot of falsehoods.  

[brooklynwx99]

11 minutes ago, Layman said:

 

I'm very pragmatic, realistic and optimistic so I'm not saying this with any negative bias at all - I simply find it ironic that I recall seeing near identical posts to this regarding the pattern we were supposed to be having at this very point in time about 10-14 days ago.  Others have mentioned that the can is continually kicked with respect to getting snow in New England and that certainly can be seen as accurate.

My personal take is that all model depictions are wrong, until they aren't.  Sounds stupid on the face of it, but it's also 100% true.  The models seem to be having moments of accuracy with some characteristics, but depending on lead time and granularity they're puking out a lot of falsehoods.  

i mean, the pattern that we were supposed to have verified, and it was suppressive for up here. it's not like the pattern didn't come to fruition, it just ended up too suppressive for SNE and led to a storm that hit the mid-Atlantic. that is really impressive verification for 10 days out. the can didn't get kicked, the individual pieces didn't come together correctly for much snow north of Philly. doesn't mean the models were wrong

 

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i mean, the pattern that we were supposed to have verified, and it was suppressive for up here. it's not like the pattern didn't come to fruition, it just ended up too suppressive for SNE and led to a storm that hit the mid-Atlantic. that is really impressive verification for 10 days out. the can didn't get kicked, the individual pieces didn't come together correctly for much snow north of Philly. doesn't mean the models were wrong

 

 

Yup. Medium to early-long-range longwave pattern recognition using ensembles is pretty good for airmass forecasting, okay for anticipating general regional storminess, and poor for local snowstorm forecasting. The averaging effect of ensembles especially towards the end of the usable range masks the critical shortwave details that drive sensible weather outcomes. And superimposed model error further compounds the difficulty.

[SJonesWX]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps colder than the op for the event near the 20th

4-6" here while Georges Bank gets 18+. makes sense

[dryslot]

Finding snow was not hard.

[weatherwiz]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Eps colder than the op for the event near the 20th

You said EPS is colder than the OP but I don't see temperatures being displayed here...

[weatherwiz]

It is less windy here today with wind advisories than it has been all week with no advisory lol. 

(I don't want that to come across as criticism of advisories versus no advisories...I just think its funny how winds perform/work at times).

[Sey-Mour Snow]

17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

It is less windy here today with wind advisories than it has been all week with no advisory lol. 

(I don't want that to come across as criticism of advisories versus no advisories...I just think its funny how winds perform/work at times).

Crazy today it is even windier here today it’s wild out! And Tuesday, Wednesday were very windy! 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Crazy today is even windier here it’s wild out! And Tuesday, Wednesday were very windy! 

I was in Branford Tuesday and the wind was ripping there. Yesterday the winds here in Springfield (at least where I am) were nuts...there were some big gusts that made the roof creek. Its been gusty at times today but pretty tame overall. 

[WinterWolf]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Finding snow was not hard.

Eustis? Rangely? 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Eustis? Rangely? 

Yes

[DavisStraight]

37 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I was in Branford Tuesday and the wind was ripping there. Yesterday the winds here in Springfield (at least where I am) were nuts...there were some big gusts that made the roof creek. Its been gusty at times today but pretty tame overall. 

I was in Springfield yesterday, it was blowing, not sure what the WC was but it was cold.

[WinterWolf]

Frieken cold out there right now..wind is still a beast. Solid cold stretch. 

[dendrite]

Miserable day of persistent -SN and flurries with some sublimational cooling aiding in the gusts and cool temps. A waste of wood pellets.

18.5° with -SHSN

[MJO812]

Euro weeklies are cold in the east right through mid February .

[Chrisrotary12]

On 12/26/2024 at 12:04 PM, Chrisrotary12 said:

At least the pattern is active.... 12z GFS: cut to Chicago, cut to Detroit, cut to Buffalo, wide right, wide right, clipper to the north.

2nd wide right coming up.

[doug1991]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

Finding snow was not hard.

Very nice. Rode Jackman, Northeast carry last weekend. Not to bad at all. Headed back up next week. 

[dryslot]

Just now, doug1991 said:

Very nice. Rode Jackman, Northeast carry last weekend. Not to bad at all. Headed back up next week. 

Buddy of mine was up in Jackman/Pittston Farms/Rockwood yesterday, 300 miles, We were into 12-18" up in the mountains here, Rode 90 miles

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Buddy of mine was up in Jackman/Pittston Farms/Rockwood yesterday, Said overall it was good300 miles, We were into 12-18" up in the mountains here, Rode 90 miles