Jester January

[Allsnow]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, apparently I divine intervention for snow in December because the cold didn't work very well.

You do better when the block connects with the se ridge 

[KTBFFH1905]

34 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I sharpened the skates last night

 

[mahk_webstah]

Well, I certainly share the frustration with everybody, one of the things I do like is the uncertainty. You can look at a model and you have a good idea of what might happen and then it doesn’t happen in the way you thought it would. This is not only like life, it is life.

especially having kids now I am not a fan of everything being scheduled and controlled. Part of what’s good about life is uncertainty and change. My kids are gonna have a lot of unstructured time to play outside and figure out life that way.

It will snow, and possibly at a time that we wouldn’t have expected it.

[Snowcrazed71]

54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Majority of people would want a negative NAO, negative AO , negative epo and positive PNA but maybe too favorable isn't a good thing ?

It just is bad timing for us. As we all know, sometimes the worst setups can give us the biggest storms. It's all the little pieces and parts that come together that create the big ones. The crazy thing is, when we have something that shows it could be big, boy do my spirits go up even higher as well as everyone else in here. Have to be honest, part of me doesn't even want to be in here. But, it's like a drug. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m thinking we get a solid SWFE before January is over.

Probably...

[tamarack]

3 hours ago, UnitedWx said:

They don't do that in Cali,  that's part of the problem... they say it's environmentally irresponsible to perform that type of preventative maint.

Totally different ecosystems.  Florida is dead flat and once the pines lose their lower branches there's no fuel ladder to the top.  Mid-size pines have bark that can withstand a quick fire of grass and pine straw, and that kind of fire gets stopped by a 5-foot firebreak.  The resinous chaparral in SoCal always has a fuel ladder, and when that stuff is burning uphill on 45° slopes, 500 feet of firebreak isn't enough.

More sun than expected today though clouds are coming.  Gusts around 30, chilly but not damaging.  The 1" of slop from New Year's Day is getting worn and turned to ice.  May need to spread some more ashes.

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, dendrite said:

I am the god of hellfire. And I bring to you…

 

I bought the album when it came out nearly 60 years ago.

[iceman1]

3 hours ago, PWMan said:

Absolutely brutal. But at least we're stockpiling high draft picks, right?

you blew the #1 pic hahahah

[iceman1]

3 hours ago, PWMan said:

I was saying to my wife last night that the cold is biting me more now that I'm in my 50s, especially with the constant wind. And as much as I'd love to see some snow and at least not completely waste the cold, there is part of me that's appreciated not having to wrestle with the snowblower.

I'm sure we'll pad our stats in March and April when it's all transient. Bring in Joe Milton.

i am 66 now loved loved the cold and snow all my life playing outdoors but now on blood thinners OMG the cold goes right through me can't stand it but i still love the snow from inside lol.

i now understand why old people move FL but not me way to hot. but if ct can't get snow anymore f the cold .

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

Ensembles on both GEFS and EPS have a decent cutter signal around D10 too. Hopefully that trends into a SWFE look or we’re doing a carbon copy 1980s pattern as it goes back into the arctic freeze behind it.  

[George001]

The next window is 1/19-21. Although the antecedent airmass is good, I am not optimistic about this setup and would pump the breaks here. Why?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2025010800/eps_z500a_namer_45.png

1. The western ridge axis is a lot more west than ideal. Classic east coast cyclogenesis setups have that ridge centered over Montana, not south of Alaska. 
2. The trough is positively tilted with energy getting buried in the SW again. This raises concerns about missed phasing.

I suppose an SWFE type system is possible, but there isn’t a lot of room for error here. It’s more of a thread the needle type setup, if you phase too early (if there is a phase, it would likely be west of where we want it), the storm cuts and it’s a Midwest blizzard while we rain. If you don’t phase, it gets shunted south and we get nothing. 

 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, George001 said:

The next window is 1/19-21. Although the antecedent airmass is good, I am not optimistic about this setup and would pump the breaks here. Why?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/eps/2025010800/eps_z500a_namer_45.png

1. The western ridge axis is a lot more west than ideal. Classic east coast cyclogenesis setups have that ridge centered over Montana, not south of Alaska. 
2. The trough is positively tilted with energy getting buried in the SW again. This raises concerns about missed phasing.

I suppose an SWFE type system is possible, but there isn’t a lot of room for error here. It’s more of a thread the needle type setup, if you phase too early (if there is a phase, it would likely be west of where we want it), the storm cuts and it’s a Midwest blizzard while we rain. If you don’t phase, it gets shunted south and we get nothing. 

 

If we've learned anything from the storm, well, no storm that we were getting this Saturday, everything is on the table. Table. There is no definitive. This is going to happen or that's going to happen. It's 10 days out. A discussion on the possibilities is always a good thing. But saying it's going to be a cutter, or it's going to slide to the south of us, or it's an SWFE.... No idea

[Kitz Craver]

55 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably...

For some… I feel I’m gonna be south of the mason dixon line when that occurs. 

[cleetussnow]

22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles on both GEFS and EPS have a decent cutter signal around D10 too. Hopefully that trends into a SWFE look or we’re doing a carbon copy 1980s pattern as it goes back into the arctic freeze behind it.  

If we start a cutter thread...maybe something else will happen.  Voodoo like the GFS  ;-) 

[Allsnow]

35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles on both GEFS and EPS have a decent cutter signal around D10 too. Hopefully that trends into a SWFE look or we’re doing a carbon copy 1980s pattern as it goes back into the arctic freeze behind it.  

Euro has that d10 threat as a mid Atlantic snowstorm 

[Snowcrazed71]

9 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Euro has that d10 threat as a mid Atlantic snowstorm 

Exactly why I said wait to get closer

[CoastalWx]

Can't keep rolling snake eyes. Something will give.

[Allsnow]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't keep rolling snake eyes. Something will give.

What’s your feeling going forward? 

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, iceman1 said:

i am 66 now loved loved the cold and snow all my life playing outdoors but now on blood thinners OMG the cold goes right through me can't stand it but i still love the snow from inside lol.

i now understand why old people move FL but not me way to hot. but if ct can't get snow anymore f the cold .

 

 

 

I'm on a baby aspirin/day, I still don't mind the cold, Just have to dress for it as i'm still quite active outside, I don't think i would ever move to FL.

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ensembles on both GEFS and EPS have a decent cutter signal around D10 too. Hopefully that trends into a SWFE look or we’re doing a carbon copy 1980s pattern as it goes back into the arctic freeze behind it.  

Of course they do.

[Torch Tiger]

Just now, dryslot said:

Of course they do.

Hopefully you get a good ice storm at least

[brooklynwx99]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Can't keep rolling snake eyes. Something will give.

there's just too much cold air... it's a persistently wintry pattern with the EPO reloading and blocking lingering. my hunch is the 18-22nd produces some kind of event. just got screwed by a suppressive TPV lobe last week and bad wave spacing this week. the general longwave setup has been there

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What’s your feeling going forward? 

This looks to all relax later in the month into Feb where I think we will see more overrunning or SWFE type deals. Looks like cold will be nearby, so for the moment I don't think it torches during early Feb. We actually could get a couple of nasty cold shots.

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

What’s your feeling going forward? 

I think Feb will be sneaky decent with overrunning and SWFEs.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

there's just too much cold air... it's a persistently wintry pattern with the EPO reloading and blocking lingering. my hunch is the 18-22nd produces some kind of event. just got screwed by a suppressive TPV lobe last week and bad wave spacing this week. the general longwave setup has been there

That’s it in a nutshell.  Sometimes ya just come up with nothing, no matter what. The cold looks to keep reloading…so let’s keep rolling the dice…something has got to break. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there's just too much cold air... it's a persistently wintry pattern with the EPO reloading and blocking lingering. my hunch is the 18-22nd produces some kind of event. just got screwed by a suppressive TPV lobe last week and bad wave spacing this week. the general longwave setup has been there

What’s ironic, couldn’t get the gold the last couple years, but how it’s here and dominating, but the storms are missing us to the south.  Tough breaks. 

[tamarack]

5 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully you get a good ice storm at least

As a weather enthusiast:  Bring it on!

As a forester:  NOOOOOOOOO!!!!

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Hopefully you get a good ice storm at least

Eh, I could do without it.

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Eh, I could do without it.

Please ........   You know Kev is drooling at the mouth and his panties are moist  thinking of a ice storm. 

[Torch Tiger]

12 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Please ........   You know Kev is drooling at the mouth and his panties are moist  thinking of a ice storm. 

Damage is damage