Jester January

[dendrite]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Now why does this sound so familiar? Hmm..

https://x.com/adamfurey4/status/1876953131784823289?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

The weather in November the winter will remember?

[jbenedet]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I got that beat....

2018: -15.5"

2019: -19"

2020: -12"

2021: -20.5"

2022: -22.5"

2023: -28.75"

2024: ~ - 20-25", so far...

 

Yea it’s been a bad stretch due to warmth; not lack of precip.
 

What’s kinda crazy though is if you go back to 2015 it’s pretty damn close to your climate average, despite this stretch. 
 

I think we’re missing dry years and this looks like the first in a while…

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, dendrite said:

The weather in November the winter will remember?

There was some discussion here on how dry/ drought falls always lead to dry winters . Dec obviously wasn’t dry .. but Jan went right back to it. We’ll see how Feb turns out before spring begins 

[UnitedWx]

35 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

All kidding aside, Fire Danger is currently high. With these winds and someone dumping wood stove ash it would take much for a fire to spread.

Living in FL for 9 years it was interesting to watch Florida Forestry or Parks perform routine large prescribed burns to control growth; not sure they do that in CA

They don't do that in Cali,  that's part of the problem... they say it's environmentally irresponsible to perform that type of preventative maint.

[mahk_webstah]

35 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

End of next week as a transient ridge weakens the 50/50 

bring that ridge!!!!

[PWMan]

I was saying to my wife last night that the cold is biting me more now that I'm in my 50s, especially with the constant wind. And as much as I'd love to see some snow and at least not completely waste the cold, there is part of me that's appreciated not having to wrestle with the snowblower.

I'm sure we'll pad our stats in March and April when it's all transient. Bring in Joe Milton.

[Lava Rock]

-13F on this day in 2015

[ariof]

18 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

-13F on this day in 2015

KBOS hit -1.

And was sitting at 5.5" of snow for the season on 1/23 (half of which fell in November).

So far, give me this Jan over anything in the past decade aside from 2022 and 2018 (and 2018 started out cold and snowy but was 60 by the 12th.

[metagraphica]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There was some discussion here on how dry/ drought falls always lead to dry winters . Dec obviously wasn’t dry .. but Jan went right back to it. We’ll see how Feb turns out before spring begins 

Warm and dry February would be awesome.  Then lets get a BECS with 30 burgers for you northern folks in Morch.  This cold, dry, windy shit sucks.

[dendrite]

1 hour ago, Lava Rock said:

-13F on this day in 2015

You and I should be getting -10s almost every winter. 

[UnitedWx]

This wind today is crazy, good thing i use Aquanet!  Really, lets save it for an actual storm

[weatherwiz]

I wonder if there is a window Monday night to get some accumulating snow. 

[wx2fish]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You and I should be getting -10s almost every winter. 

CON has still been pulling -10F or lower pretty consistently (missed in 2020/2021 and last year). Last winter was such a torch the yearly min was the cold snap in Dec 

[Damage In Tolland]

Winds today  here strongest yet. Ripping 45-50 this morning 

[MJO812]

Majority of people would want a negative NAO, negative AO , negative epo and positive PNA but maybe too favorable isn't a good thing ?

[wx2fish]

7 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I wonder if there is a window Monday night to get some accumulating snow. 

Some hints at an IVT type look into Tuesday, but obviously that's a fickle setup. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Some hints at an IVT type look into Tuesday, but obviously that's a fickle setup. 

I feel like its a setup like that which will pan out  

The ones that get little attention 4 days out and then all of a sudden 2-3 days out you have a nice QPF field showing up. But that's a nice shortwave digging in

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Majority of people would want a negative NAO, negative AO , negative epo and positive PNA but maybe too favorable isn't a good thing ?

You’ve lost the entire plot my friend. There literally is no such thing as a good thing anymore. Not here. 

2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I feel like its a setup like that which will pan out  

The ones that get little attention 4 days out and then all of a sudden 2-3 days out you have a nice QPF field showing up. But that's a nice shortwave digging in

Today. Call me when that nice shortwave has survived the journey in a meaningful form.

[MJO812]

[ineedsnow]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Winds today  here strongest yet. Ripping 45-50 this morning 

ya we rip

[Allsnow]

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

 

I think I liked phase 5 better-

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I liked phase 5 better-

The forever p5 torch winters have taken a backseat this year 

[Damage In Tolland]

32 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

How old are you? Thought you were younger 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

The forever p5 torch winters have taken a backseat this year 

100% literally, they were better for me....I had a 19" event one year ago...Dec 2022 I narrowly missed a huge one right before Xmas if not for a polar beer queen sending the PV to phase too far west....January 2023 was active with reasonable snowfall, and in March 2023 I JUST missed another huge event due to bizarre nipple low delaying a transfer. I would take those past 2 winters X100 over this cold, dry, cracked rusty, back alley coat hanger of a season.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I will bet anything February is a respectable month for me snowfall wise.....at least near average and probably better.

[Allsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100% literally, they were better for me....I had a 19" event one year ago...Dec 2022 I narrowly missed a huge one right before Xmas if not for a polar beer queen sending the PV to phase too far west....January 2023 was active with reasonable snowfall, and in March 2023 I JUST missed another huge event due to bizarre nipple low delaying a transfer. I would take those past 2 winters X100 over this cold, dry, cracked rusty, back alley coat hanger of a season.

Not shocking 

@bluewave feels we only need below avg temps in December and March for snow. January/feb all about storm track

[40/70 Benchmark]

Where is @bluewavewith that boiling SST plot of the West Pacific when I need him.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Not shocking 

@bluewave feels we only need below avg temps in December and March for snow. January/feb all about storm track

Well, apparently I need divine intervention for snow in December because the cold didn't work very well.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I will bet anything February is a respectable month for me snowfall wise.....at least near average and probably better.

I’m thinking we get a solid SWFE before January is over.