Jester January

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Cold yes but most of sne is going to end December below normal for snow with some traditionally snowy places are WAY below normal

Just curious, What are the traditionally snowy areas that are BN?  

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most is AN other than CT valley and Scooters area of SE MA and Metheun area 

This post is made up 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Just curious, What are the traditionally snowy areas that are BN?  

Pretty much all of interior MA into srn NH. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This post is made up 

You have become worse than Tblizz. Which is hard to do. Remember how much um you hated his posts and whines? You are now worse . Think about that 

[Typhoon Tip]

23 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s how this game is played though…you/we all know this going in. So many nuances with getting snow, that a good/great pattern can’t tell or show us at med/extended ranges.  So you just gotta wait..or take a break and check in in 4-5 days. 

aah ... there should be no game.

the reality is failing returns on optimistic outlooks ... period.  that cannot be controverted ( argued against...) because it is the reality.  

anything else milquetoasts in an attempt to either evade that reality, or white glove it - which frankly aggravates those that want to engage in this social media but have to wade through this amelioration thing       

the point is ( altho there's sarcasm in that, too...yes ) modeling systems are very drastically short on productive results, given both qualitative and quantitatively supportive outlooks. 

it's fair enough to suspect that this aspect, too, will end up yet another canard pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You have become worse than Tblizz. Which is hard to do. Remember how much um you hated his posts and whines? You are now worse . Think about that 

Then don’t make posts up 

[CoastalWx]

One red neck hill in CT has near normal snow and suddenly the whole region turns into Denali.

[Torch Tiger]

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

One red neck hill in CT has near normal snow and suddenly the whole region turns into Denali.

Do you have any other hobbies, or anything else to do other than  the board? What if you just did something else  for a week or two ? Can you find something else do you think?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Do you have any other hobbies, or anything else to do other than  the board? What if you just did something else  for a week or two ? Can you find something else do you think?

What’s wrong with my earlier posts? I commented on the region snowfall and said the ensembles look decent. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

What’s wrong with my earlier posts? I commented on the region snowfall and said the ensembles look decent. 

I’m talking about the last 30-45 days of your posts. Theyre far worse than the ones you hated so much from Tblizz. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m talking about the last 30-45 days of your posts. Theyre far worse than the ones you hated so much from Tblizz. 

You were still preaching Stein 3 weeks ago

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’m talking about the last 30-45 days of your posts. Theyre far worse than the ones you hated so much from Tblizz. 

Just tell it as I see it. 

Hopefully January works out. Looks good on paper,  but needs to actually perform. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

You were still preaching Stein 3 weeks ago

Once that dopamine flows, it cant be stopped.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

So 10 days from now, when it’s January 3rd…and we finished December at normal or AN snow, we should be having a snow event immediately on the first two days of January, or we’re in trouble of falling behind on 1/3?  I mean, that’s about as lame an excuse for saying areas will be BN, because on 1/3/25 there hasn’t been a snow storm yet for January, as one can get.   
 

 

...am I wrong about that?

 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

You were still preaching Stein 3 weeks ago

Why can’t anyone question things? 

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just tell it as I see it. 

Hopefully January works out. Looks good on paper,  but needs to actually perform. 

That’s perfectly fine post. Let’s get back to these . There were some others this morning talking about a bad pattern on ensembles which was not the case . 

[brooklynwx99]

33 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

D16 on the 06Z GEFS looked ugly as it seemed the W Coast ridge was about to be totally punched and the flow was going to go zonal but at that range who knows.  Also the patterns have been continually getting broken down too fast on ensembles for 2 months

lol this can’t be a serious post

[Great Snow 1717]

..the coming meltdowns are going to be epic!

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this can’t be a serious post

You lose the darker height anomalies from Baja up to BC over the previous few days, some of that is simply the resolution further out but seems like maybe the ridge is flattening somewhat at the end.

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Just tell it as I see it. 

Hopefully January works out. Looks good on paper,  but needs to actually perform. 

Some people here would be perfectly fine with you morphing into the equivalent of someone who touts penny stocks as the road to being wealthy..

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

You lose the darker height anomalies from Baja up to BC over the previous few days, some of that is simply the resolution further out but seems like maybe the ridge is flattening somewhat at the end.

i guess. i mean you never know if this is going to pan out verbatim, but if it did, that’s split flow with blocking over the top

[Great Snow 1717]

44 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Cold yes but most of sne is going to end December below normal for snow with some traditionally snowy places are WAY below normal

100% correct

[EastonSN+]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i guess. i mean you never know if this is going to pan out verbatim, but if it did, that’s split flow with blocking over the top

As long as it does not result in a trough to Baja that's a decent look.

[Go Kart Mozart]

50 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most is AN other than CT valley and Scooters area of SE MA and Metheun area 

How is Tolland doing?  BDR is -3.1 for the month, it will be interesting to see where it ends up, maybe near normal.  Perhaps Tolland pokes up above the fake cold layer, so you are accurately depicting the balminess of this month.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i'm kind of fighting off the temptation to fall into Ray's bad attitude ... tired of ogling these amazing pattern Rembrandts only to have whatever emerges in time ... all but dependably becoming a head-game of diminishing returns. 

in a lot of ways, it's like the modeling systems are gas-lighting   lol

I feel as good about major snows in the long range as I do about the Sox interest in major FAs....on paper, there is no reason it shouldn't happen, but you get that pit in the middle of your gut that it just won't until it actually takes place. Until John Henry and the atmosphere both commit to large investments once again, we are resigned to broke dick storms and players, as well as 15×20 mile bands of prosperity and trades of top prospects for relative unknowns.

 

[WinterWolf]

40 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

...am I wrong about that?

 

It’s a shit argument…kind of like saying the first two days of January might be above normal, so January is above normal.  But knock yourself out.  This isn’t last year. 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

I don’t think anybody who is reasonable is saying that it hasn’t sucked.  But when disingenuous people from other sub forums, come in and post a 384 hr OP run snapshot, that shows extremely warm 2 meter anomalies all over the whole Northern hemisphere, that absolutely never ended up playing out at all. And then the same posters can’t be found when the Ensembles(not OP) look good…that’s trolling bud.  And that’s the crap that should be clamped down on all the time.  There are a handful of disingenuous posters. 

For some fortunate NNE peeps that have been on the good side of several events, claiming Dec was awful would be disingenuous.  We'll finish the month BN for temps unless Mon-Tues come in at 50/35.  And if we see nary a flake over the next 25 days, it would be mid-Jan before snowfall drops into the under.  Of course, there's always a chance that the storm track moves way south, and we watch SNE/MA shoveling out while we enjoy the edges.  (In 2021-22 some NNJ sites had Feb snow that equaled/exceeded our entire season's snow.)
 

Only a few more months before we debate whether or not 60F dews are humid or COC. 

Depends on the date - on May 2 that's definitely humid; August 2 CoC (if dry).  

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

It’s a shit argument…kind of like saying the first two days of January might be above normal, so January is above normal.  But knock yourself out.  This isn’t last year. 

..so it's a shit argument to say that an area that currently has had normal snowfall to date is likely going to be below normal snowfall for the season 10 days from now?????.....

[Great Snow 1717]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel as good about major snows in the long range as I do about the Sox interest in major FAs....on paper, there is no reason it shouldn't happen, but you get that pit in the middle of your gut that it just won't until it actually takes place. Until John Henry and the atmosphere both commit to large investments once again, we are resigned to broke dick storms and players, as well as 15×20 mile bands of prosperity and trades of top prospects for relative unknowns.

 

100% correct