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Jester January


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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been eons better since they revamped it. Gfs used to brutally bad absolutely. It’s not anymore . A compromise is most likely . Which means a light - moderate hit 

I agree, But if you look at the goal post and even if you take the middle, That's close to a whiff.

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11 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see this as euro vs world. Gfs op is way left of everyone else. Gefs is ok with some big hits while Euro/uk/cmc/icon are all near the right goalpost. Small improvements on gefs, eps, geps is nice but need more over the next 4 cycles without any step backs. 

It’s the trend my friend. The trend is your friend.  To the Euro you need not bend.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been eons better since they revamped it. Gfs used to brutally bad absolutely. It’s not anymore . A compromise is most likely . Which means a light - moderate hit 

 Concerns: and not because of lack of phasing or N/S track, but the timing a hair off and it closes off late. ho-hum forgettable storm

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14 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I don’t see this as euro vs world. Gfs op is way left of everyone else. Gefs is ok with some big hits while Euro/uk/cmc/icon are all near the right goalpost. Small improvements on gefs, eps, geps is nice but need more over the next 4 cycles without any step backs. 

The CMC gets the South Coast with accumulation and with an intense low off of Southern Delmarva. Did not explode up the coast however a few more miles in southern Connecticut can get a light to moderate event. Somewhat of a middle ground.

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10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’ve never stepped foot in that dirty place . I’ve heard many many stories though and I believe many of them .  The story is it got its roots as a hideout for the PVD Italian mob back in the day.. 

Likely true. Back in the day almost all of them were mob connected. Money laundering. Once went to the King Arthur's in Chelsea , they had metal detectors and it was long before 9/11.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

The northern stream was a touch better, but the end result was almost a wash because the southern stream dragged slightly compared to 12z. But I do like seeing the northern stream slowly improve.


Nothing like the wind.  These are from the 2’ Jan 29 2022 (?) storm.  The first picture is in the yard which is unobstructed from the water.  The second is on the leeward side of the house.

 

 

 

IMG_0520.jpeg

IMG_0528.jpeg

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Someone ought to train an AI that takes deterministic and ensemble guidance 180 hrs out and predicts the likelihood of a significant event. This can be sort of our threat barometer

 

What would need to happen:

1) Define sig. event (average precipitation of .5 over a 48 hour period for some given area)

Parse all modeling data that preceded sig. events and train the AI to find model trends that correlated more with an event occurring than with non-sig weather.

 

Might be cool, Would be interested if someone here is an AI research or user to verify my methodology

 

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9 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

Screenshot 2025-01-06 200548.png

The ironic part of that picture, is that as the Euro went ballistic at 0z Saturday night…the GFS lost it on that 0z run, after having it 2 consecutive cycles in a row(12z and18z..just like today) that day.    
 

So, will the Euro jump on board tonight at 0z, and the GFS lose it, like back on Saturday.  How crazy would that be? 

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