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Jester January


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Just now, dryslot said:

Euro op not being onboard is concerning.

A few years ago, I would have been concerned... not so much anymore... at least not to the same degree as during the old days when the king was truly the king.  Maybe it's right this time around but my worry when it's in dispute with other models.

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1 minute ago, FXWX said:

A few years ago, I would have been concerned... not so much anymore... at least not to the same degree as during the old days when the king was truly the king.  Maybe it's right this time around but my worry when it's in dispute with other models.

100%.

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trends are good right now which is very important in this time range. So I agree there. I’m still nervous about this fully phasing, but if we can see another cross-guidance improvement at 00z, I’ll become a lot more bullish. 

this is pretty solid across all ensembles 

IMG_1179.thumb.gif.9ad2969883019192ce738fb529eab349.gifIMG_1178.thumb.gif.24c64b466f2f30194d2522a4f5a93301.gifIMG_1177.thumb.gif.d6cfb5fb3d7dcac444fc97e704b4f6a6.gif

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Please take the bull by the horns. You said yesterday your gut says it’s coming 

I can change how I feel based on the data. I’m not tossing this storm out the window. Just was hoping for some stronger support by now but we still have time and the trends were positive today. 

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1 minute ago, kdxken said:

All this model angst. Save yourself the worry and get yourself a subscription to this fellow. I knew there was going to be a blizzard 3 hours ago. Already been to the grocery store and loaded up on milk and bread. Sorry Doris the shelves are bare...

Guy reminds me of Stu Soroka, Boston area TV met from the 70's.

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10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Trends are good right now which is very important in this time range. So I agree there. I’m still nervous about this fully phasing, but if we can see another cross-guidance improvement at 00z, I’ll become a lot more bullish. 

Even though I’m bullish, I totally agree with having some apprehension given how sensitive the setup is. It’s big boom or big bust imo. I think public facing communication should remain conservative as a result, at least for now.

Although I think it’s less likely now that we’re 24h closer, there’s certainly the risk that this trend broadly backslides, which is an especially pronounced risk here because of the sensitivity to the ridge and actual phase. 

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28 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But he’s not entirely correct 

lol I mean it is what it is. 

FWIW, there's pretty much no change from 12z to 18z GEFS with QPF probs for Connecticut. Mean is getting skewed by some giant hits in there.

Definitely interested in the storm... has some high end potential. We'll know more soon enough.

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

lol I mean it is what it is. 

FWIW, there's pretty much no change from 12z to 18z GEFS with QPF probs for Connecticut. Mean is getting skewed by some giant hits in there.

Definitely interested in the storm... has some high end potential. We'll know more soon enough.

You're misinterpreting the data.

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1 Hour ago I looked at the NWS BOX forecast and see that there is Not a Drop of snow in the forecast for 10 days.  Just go Full Pissed Off Mode.  

Then I come in here to see how the Current storm we're MISSING to the MidAtlantic is.... and Realize Sperate from the currant storm....  

 

We're In Full Blizzard Watch Potential Mode Alla January 2005!  We've Got a Big One to Watch Finally!?  :cory:  

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