DavisStraight Posted Monday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:36 PM 1 minute ago, ROOSTA said: To phase or NOT to phase, that is the question. I'll always choose phase. MODEL DEJUR. I guess we'll all go for a phase! Lets all drink to the phase! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 11:36 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:36 PM 2 minutes ago, ROOSTA said: To phase or NOT to phase, that is the question. I'll always choose phase. MODEL DEJUR. I guess we'll all go for a phase! cockadoodle-dew to that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted Monday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:37 PM I mean it’s nice to see the GFS double down, but then again so has the EURO with just c-hair improvement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted Monday at 11:37 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:37 PM 3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said: Imagine it doesnt cave and the GFS is right Imagine if it doesn’t cave and gfs is wrong. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: congrats to the slantsticker who got 30.2". Is that you Ray? That's @Typhoon Tip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted Monday at 11:38 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:38 PM The 18z GEFS still with a lot of misses/scrapers. Odds of >0.5" QPF still relatively low. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Imagine if it doesn’t cave and gfs is wrong. I think that's what she tried to say LOL. My thing is, if the Euro turns out to be right and the GFS and the other models are wrong, then I give up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 PM 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: This is gonna be one hell of a cave either way… Besides 2015, I feel like it is always the GFS that caves in these less than 5 day battles.....hopefully it's the GFSs turn 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:39 PM Just now, CT Rain said: The 18z GEFS still with a lot of misses/scrapers. Odds of >0.5" QPF still relatively low. So what's your take? This is what you do and see this all the time. Are you more Euro team, or do you think the GFS is on to something? ( Or plead the fifth lol ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted Monday at 11:40 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:40 PM 1 minute ago, CT Rain said: The 18z GEFS still with a lot of misses/scrapers. Odds of >0.5" QPF still relatively low. Bruce Willis running toward the runway with something in his hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 PM if the ECMWF isn’t going to play ball whatsoever i’m just gonna assume the GFS is on crack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted Monday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 PM 84 hours that’s a pretty big differences for this range . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted Monday at 11:41 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:41 PM 4 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said: Hedging an outcome? What camp has the right idea? The general trend today has been toward the GFS but the Euro trending so slowly has me spooked. It historically handles complex phasing much better than the GFS does. I think you have to hedge toward a miss right now….but it’s a very low confidence forecast. 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted Monday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:43 PM FWIW most TV mets are waiting on the Euro before saying it will likely snow on Saturday/Sunday. It still carries a lot of weight. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 11:43 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:43 PM lol there’s even a big difference at initialization. what the hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:45 PM 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: What is wrong with the Euro anymore? Just crap Unless it’s right. It has been steadfast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:45 PM 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: The 18z GEFS still with a lot of misses/scrapers. Odds of >0.5" QPF still relatively low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted Monday at 11:45 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:45 PM I've been on the Euro track train but I am somewhat worried because the GFS has owned the Euro/CMC before when the one piece thats been the key involves something to do with the northern stream and its the reverse if its southern stream involvement. Euro is usually right and GFS wrong there 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted Monday at 11:46 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:46 PM 2 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: FWIW most TV mets are waiting on the Euro before saying it will likely snow on Saturday/Sunday. It still carries a lot of weight. Still have a couple days before TV mets have to commit to that. For now they can just say cloudy with a chance of snow and mention the possibility of something bigger. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted Monday at 11:47 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:47 PM 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The general trend today has been toward the GFS but the Euro trending so slowly has me spooked. It historically handles complex phasing much better than the GFS does. I think you have to hedge toward a miss right now….but it’s a very low confidence forecast. That’s nuts especially with GEPs and GEFS all hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted Monday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 PM 3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I've been on the Euro track train but I am somewhat worried because the GFS has owned the Euro/CMC before when the one piece thats been the key involves something to do with the northern stream and its the reverse if its southern stream involvement. Euro is usually right and GFS wrong there Bernie Rayno released a video earlier saying the Euro is notoriously less good at resolving southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted Monday at 11:49 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:49 PM EPS has hits!!! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted Monday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:50 PM EPS is coming in hot, very significant improvement. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted Monday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:50 PM 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: That’s nuts especially with GEPs and GEFS all hits See Ryan’s post at the top of this page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 11:50 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:50 PM And what about the idea of the Euro tending to hold back the energy and bury it in the southwest. That was mentioned by Bernie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Ya was just going to post EPS is definitely better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:51 PM Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: See Ryan’s post at the top of this page Ya but run the last 3 GEFS runs and it's a significant improvement and the 18z EPS just made a huge shift.. it's coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted Monday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:52 PM 1 minute ago, Patrick-02540 said: Bernie Rayno released a video earlier saying the Euro is notoriously less good at resolving southern stream. New euro has been pretty good so far and it’s shown to perform well with the metrics that models are rated on. It does not mean it’s error proof though. We’ll see. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted Monday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:52 PM 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS has hits!!! About time 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted Monday at 11:52 PM Share Posted Monday at 11:52 PM Just now, ineedsnow said: Ya but run the last 3 GEFS runs and it's a significant improvement and the 18z EPS just made a huge shift.. it's coming I do get Ryan's caution. He needs to take all the information before coming to a emotional decision like we are lol But keep going the way they are, then he'll come on board and give his stamp of approval 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now